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A prognostic index for operable, node-negative breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: Clinical data and samples from patients diagnosed, more than 10 years previously, with operable node-negative breast cancer (participants in the Scottish Adjuvant Tamoxifen trial), were revisited. Cases with two distinct categories of outcome were selected; more than 10 years disease-free survival ('good outcome') or distant relapse within 6 years of diagnosis ('poor outcome'). An initial set of cases was analysed for a range of putative prognostic markers and a prognostic index, distinguishing the two outcome categories, was calculated. This index was then validated by testing its predictive power on a second, independent set of cases. A combination of histological grade plus immunochemical staining for BCL-2, p27 and Cyclin D1, generated a useful prognostic index for tamoxifen-treated patients but not for those treated by surgery alone. The value of the index was confirmed in a second set of tamoxifen-treated, early stage breast cancers. Overall, it correctly predicted good and poor outcome in 79 and 74% of cases, respectively (odds ratio 11.0). Other markers assessed added little to prediction of outcome. In the case of molecular assays, sensitivity and reliability were compromised by the age of the tissue specimens and the variability of fixation protocols. In selecting patients for adjuvant systemic chemotherapy, the proposed index improves considerably on current international guidelines and matches the performance reported for 'gene-expression signature' analysis.

SUBMITTER: McCallum M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2409476 | biostudies-other | 2004 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BACKGROUND: A breast cancer prognostic tool should ideally be applicable to all types of invasive breast lesions. A number of studies have shown histopathological grade to be an independent prognostic factor in breast cancer, adding prognostic power to nodal stage and tumour size. The Nottingham Prognostic Index has been shown to accurately predict patient outcome in stratified groups with a follow-up period of 15 years after primary diagnosis of breast cancer. Clinically, breast tumours that lack the expression of Oestrogen Receptor, Progesterone Receptor and Human Epidermal growth factor Receptor 2 (HER2) are identified as presenting a "triple-negative" phenotype or as triple-negative breast cancers. These poor outcome tumours represent an easily recognisable prognostic group of breast cancer with aggressive behaviour that currently lack the benefit of available systemic therapy. There are conflicting results on the prevalence of lymph node metastasis at the time of diagnosis in triple-negative breast cancer patients but it is currently accepted that triple-negative breast cancer does not metastasize to axillary nodes and bones as frequently as the non-triple-negative carcinomas, favouring instead, a preferentially haematogenous spread. Hypothetically, this particular tumour dissemination pattern would impair the reliability of using Nottingham Prognostic Index as a tool for triple-negative breast cancer prognostication. METHODS: The present study tested the effectiveness of the Nottingham Prognostic Index in stratifying breast cancer patients of different subtypes with special emphasis in a triple-negative breast cancer patient subset versus non- triple-negative breast cancer. RESULTS: We demonstrated that besides the fact that TNBC disseminate to axillary lymph nodes as frequently as luminal or HER2 tumours, we also showed that TNBC are larger in size compared with other subtypes and almost all grade 3. Additionally, survival curves demonstrated that these prognostic factors are equally important to stratify different survival outcomes in non-TNBC as in TNBC. We also showed that the NPI retains the ability to stratify and predict survival of TNBC patients. CONCLUSION: The importance of this study relies on the need of prognostication improvements on TNBC, showing, at a clinical standpoint, that Nottingham Prognostic Index is as a truthful prognostic tool in TNBC.

Project description:Systemic chemotherapy in the adjuvant setting can cure breast cancer in some patients that would otherwise recur with incurable, metastatic disease. However, since only a fraction of patients would have recurrence after surgery alone, the challenge is to stratify high-risk patients (who stand to benefit from systemic chemotherapy) from low-risk patients (who can safely be spared treatment related toxicities and costs).We focus here on risk stratification in node-negative, ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. We use a large database of publicly available microarray datasets to build a random forests classifier and develop a robust multi-gene mRNA transcription-based predictor of relapse free survival at 10 years, which we call the Random Forests Relapse Score (RFRS). Performance was assessed by internal cross-validation, multiple independent data sets, and comparison to existing algorithms using receiver-operating characteristic and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Internal redundancy of features was determined using k-means clustering to define optimal signatures with smaller numbers of primary genes, each with multiple alternates.Internal OOB cross-validation for the initial (full-gene-set) model on training data reported an ROC AUC of 0.704, which was comparable to or better than those reported previously or obtained by applying existing methods to our dataset. Three risk groups with probability cutoffs for low, intermediate, and high-risk were defined. Survival analysis determined a highly significant difference in relapse rate between these risk groups. Validation of the models against independent test datasets showed highly similar results. Smaller 17-gene and 8-gene optimized models were also developed with minimal reduction in performance. Furthermore, the signature was shown to be almost equally effective on both hormone-treated and untreated patients.RFRS allows flexibility in both the number and identity of genes utilized from thousands to as few as 17 or eight genes, each with multiple alternatives. The RFRS reports a probability score strongly correlated with risk of relapse. This score could therefore be used to assign systemic chemotherapy specifically to those high-risk patients most likely to benefit from further treatment.

Project description:IntroductionThe overall survival rate is good for lymph-node-negative breast cancer patients, but they still suffer from serious over- and some undertreatments. Prognostic and predictive gene signatures for node-negative breast cancer have a high number of genes related to proliferation. The prognostic value of gene sets from commercial gene-expression assays were compared with proliferation markers.MethodsIllumina WG6 mRNA microarray analysis was used to examine 94 fresh-frozen tumour samples from node-negative breast cancer patients. The patients were divided into low- and high-risk groups for distant metastasis based on the MammaPrint-related genes, and into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups based on the recurrence score algorithm with genes included in Oncotype DX. These data were then compared to proliferation status, as measured by the mitotic activity index, the expressions of phosphohistone H3 (PPH3), and Ki67.ResultsKaplan-Meier survival analysis for distant-metastasis-free survival revealed that patients with weak and strong PPH3 expressions had 14-year survival rates of 87% (n=45), and 65% (n=49, p=0.014), respectively. Analysis of the MammaPrint classification resulted in 14-year survival rates of 80% (n=45) and 71% (n=49, p=0.287) for patients with low and high risks of recurrence, respectively. The Oncotype DX categorization yielded 14-year survival rates of 83% (n=18), 79% (n=42) and 68% (n=34) for those in the low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, respectively (p=0.52). Supervised hierarchical cluster analysis for distant-metastasis-free survival in the subgroup of patients with strong PPH3 expression revealed that the genes involved in Notch signalling and cell adhesion were expressed at higher levels in those patients with distant metastasis.ConclusionThis pilot study indicates that proliferation has greater prognostic value than the expressions of either MammaPrint- or Oncotype-DX-related genes. Furthermore, in the subgroup of patients with high proliferation, Notch signalling pathway genes appear to be expressed at higher levels in patients who develop distant metastasis.

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A prognostic index for operable, node-negative breast cancer.

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