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Increasing clinical virulence in two decades of the Italian HIV epidemic.

ABSTRACT: The recent origin and great evolutionary potential of HIV imply that the virulence of the virus might still be changing, which could greatly affect the future of the pandemic. However, previous studies of time trends of HIV virulence have yielded conflicting results. Here we used an established methodology to assess time trends in the severity (virulence) of untreated HIV infections in a large Italian cohort. We characterized clinical virulence by the decline slope of the CD4 count (n = 1423 patients) and the viral setpoint (n = 785 patients) in untreated patients with sufficient data points. We used linear regression models to detect correlations between the date of diagnosis (ranging 1984-2006) and the virulence markers, controlling for gender, exposure category, age, and CD4 count at entry. The decline slope of the CD4 count and the viral setpoint displayed highly significant correlation with the date of diagnosis pointing in the direction of increasing virulence. A detailed analysis of riskgroups revealed that the epidemics of intravenous drug users started with an apparently less virulent virus, but experienced the strongest trend towards steeper CD4 decline among the major exposure categories. While our study did not allow us to exclude the effect of potential time trends in host factors, our findings are consistent with the hypothesis of increasing HIV virulence. Importantly, the use of an established methodology allowed for a comparison with earlier results, which confirmed that genuine differences exist in the time trends of HIV virulence between different epidemics. We thus conclude that there is not a single global trend of HIV virulence, and results obtained in one epidemic cannot be extrapolated to others. Comparison of discordant patterns between riskgroups and epidemics hints at a converging trend, which might indicate that an optimal level of virulence might exist for the virus.

SUBMITTER: Muller V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2682199 | biostudies-other | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Preclinical and early human clinical studies of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) to prevent and treat HIV infection support the clinical utility and potential of bNAbs for prevention, postexposure prophylaxis, and treatment of acute and chronic infection. Observed and potential limitations of bNAbs from these recent studies include the selection of resistant viral populations, immunogenicity resulting in the development of antidrug (Ab) responses, and the potentially toxic elimination of reservoir cells in regeneration-limited tissues. Here, we review opportunities to improve the clinical utility of HIV Abs to address these challenges and further accomplish functional targets for anti-HIV Ab therapy at various stages of exposure/infection. Before exposure, bNAbs' ability to serve as prophylaxis by neutralization may be improved by increasing serum half-life to necessitate less frequent administration, delivering genes for durable in vivo expression, and targeting bNAbs to sites of exposure. After exposure and/or in the setting of acute infection, bNAb use to prevent/reduce viral reservoir establishment and spread may be enhanced by increasing the potency with which autologous adaptive immune responses are stimulated, clearing acutely infected cells, and preventing cell-cell transmission of virus. In the setting of chronic infection, bNAbs may better mediate viral remission or "cure" in combination with antiretroviral therapy and/or latency reversing agents, by targeting additional markers of tissue reservoirs or infected cell types, or by serving as targeting moieties in engineered cell therapy. While the clinical use of HIV Abs has never been closer, remaining studies to precisely define, model, and understand the complex roles and dynamics of HIV Abs and viral evolution in the context of the human immune system and anatomical compartmentalization will be critical to both optimize their clinical use in combination with existing agents and define further strategies with which to enhance their clinical safety and efficacy.

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Increasing clinical virulence in two decades of the Italian HIV epidemic.

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