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Quantitative prediction of ischemic stroke tissue fate.

ABSTRACT: Accurate prediction of ischemic tissue fate could aid clinical decision-making in the treatment of acute stroke. We investigated predictions of tissue fate for three (30-min, 60-min and permanent) stroke models in rats. Quantitative cerebral blood flow (CBF), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and spin-spin relaxation time constant (T(2)) were acquired during the acute phase and at the end point followed by histological examination. Probability-of-infarct profiles based on ADC and CBF data were constructed using a training dataset. Probability-of-infarct maps were predicted using only acute stroke data from a separate experimental dataset, revealing the likelihood of future infarction. Performance measures of sensitivity and specificity showed accurate predictions. Sensitivities (mean +/- SD) for the 30-min, 60-min and permanent stroke were, respectively, 82 +/- 6%, 82 +/- 7%, and 86 +/- 4%, specificities were 83 +/- 5%, 86 +/- 5%, and 89 +/- 6%, and the areas under the receiver operating curve were 87 +/- 3%, 90 +/- 4%, and 93 +/- 3%. Importantly, to improve prediction accuracy, we took into account regional susceptibility to infarction. Spatial frequency-of-infarct maps were constructed and predictions were made by taking the weighted average of the probability-of-infarct map and spatial frequency-of-infarct map. The optimal weighting coefficient of spatial frequency-of-infarct was small (10%) for the permanent occlusion group but surprisingly large (40%) for the reperfusion groups, indicating that regional susceptibility of infarction was important for accurate prediction in reperfusion stroke. We concluded that the likelihood of cerebral infarction in rats can be accurately predicted and that accounting for regional susceptibility of infarct further improves prediction accuracy. Predictive models have the potential to provide a valuable quantitative framework for clinicians to consider different stroke treatment options.

SUBMITTER: Shen Q

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2901887 | biostudies-other | 2008 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:Background and purposeMultiphase computed tomographic angiography (mCTA) provides time variant images of pial vasculature supplying brain in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). To develop a machine learning (ML) technique to predict tissue perfusion and infarction from mCTA source images.Methods284 patients with AIS were included from the Precise and Rapid assessment of collaterals using multi-phase CTA in the triage of patients with acute ischemic stroke for Intra-artery Therapy (Prove-IT) study. All patients had non-contrast computed tomography, mCTA, and computed tomographic perfusion (CTP) at baseline and follow-up magnetic resonance imaging/non-contrast-enhanced computed tomography. Of the 284 patient images, 140 patient images were randomly selected to train and validate three ML models to predict a pre-defined Tmax thresholded perfusion abnormality, core and penumbra on CTP. The remaining 144 patient images were used to test the ML models. The predicted perfusion, core and penumbra lesions from ML models were compared to CTP perfusion lesion and to follow-up infarct using Bland-Altman plots, concordance correlation coefficient (CCC), intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC), and Dice similarity coefficient.ResultsMean difference between the mCTA predicted perfusion volume and CTP perfusion volume was 4.6 mL (limit of agreement [LoA], -53 to 62.1 mL; P=0.56; CCC 0.63 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.53 to 0.71; P<0.01], ICC 0.68 [95% CI, 0.58 to 0.78; P<0.001]). Mean difference between the mCTA predicted infarct and follow-up infarct in the 100 patients with acute reperfusion (modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction [mTICI] 2b/2c/3) was 21.7 mL, while it was 3.4 mL in the 44 patients not achieving reperfusion (mTICI 0/1). Amongst reperfused subjects, CCC was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.15 to 0.55; P<0.01) and ICC was 0.42 (95% CI, 0.18 to 0.50; P<0.01); in non-reperfused subjects CCC was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.20 to 0.60; P<0.001) and ICC was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.37 to 0.76; P<0.001). No difference was observed between the mCTA and CTP predicted infarct volume in the test cohort (P=0.67).ConclusionsA ML based mCTA model is able to predict brain tissue perfusion abnormality and follow-up infarction, comparable to CTP.

Project description:IntroductionMalignant cerebral edema develops in a small subset of patients with hemispheric strokes, precipitating deterioration and death if decompressive hemicraniectomy (DHC) is not performed in a timely manner. Predicting which stroke patients will develop malignant edema is imprecise based on clinical data alone. Head computed tomography (CT) imaging is often performed at baseline and 24-h. We determined the incremental value of incorporating imaging-derived features from serial CTs to enhance prediction of malignant edema.MethodsWe identified hemispheric stroke patients at three sites with NIHSS ≥ 7 who had baseline as well as 24-h clinical and CT imaging data. We extracted quantitative imaging features from baseline and follow-up CTs, including CSF volume, intracranial reserve (CSF/cranial volume), as well as midline shift (MLS) and infarct-related hypodensity volume. Potentially lethal malignant edema was defined as requiring DHC or dying with MLS over 5-mm. We built machine-learning models using logistic regression first with baseline data and then adding 24-h data including reduction in CSF volume (ΔCSF). Model performance was evaluated with cross-validation using metrics of recall (sensitivity), precision (predictive value), as well as area under receiver-operating-characteristic and precision-recall curves (AUROC, AUPRC).ResultsTwenty of 361 patients (6%) died or underwent DHC. Baseline clinical variables alone had recall of 60% with low precision (7%), AUROC 0.59, AUPRC 0.15. Adding baseline intracranial reserve improved recall to 80% and AUROC to 0.82 but precision remained only 16% (AUPRC 0.28). Incorporating ΔCSF improved AUPRC to 0.53 (AUROC 0.91) while all imaging features further improved prediction (recall 90%, precision 38%, AUROC 0.96, AUPRC 0.66).ConclusionIncorporating quantitative CT-based imaging features from baseline and 24-h CT enhances identification of patients with malignant edema needing DHC. Further refinements and external validation of such imaging-based machine-learning models are required.

Project description:BackgroundAn accurate prediction of tissue outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients is of high interest for treatment decision making. To date, various machine learning models have been proposed that combine multi-parametric imaging data for this purpose. However, most of these machine learning models were trained using voxel information extracted from the whole brain, without taking differences in susceptibility to ischemia into account that exist between brain regions. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate a local tissue outcome prediction approach, which makes predictions using locally trained machine learning models and thus accounts for regional differences.Material and methodsMulti-parametric MRI data from 99 acute ischemic stroke patients were used for the development and evaluation of the local tissue outcome prediction approach. Diffusion (ADC) and perfusion parameter maps (CBF, CBV, MTT, Tmax) and corresponding follow-up lesion masks for each patient were registered to the MNI brain atlas. Logistic regression (LR) and random forest (RF) models were trained employing a local approach, which makes predictions using models individually trained for each specific voxel position using the corresponding local data. A global approach, which uses a single model trained using all voxels of the brain, was used for comparison. Tissue outcome predictions resulting from the global and local RF and LR models, as well as a combined (hybrid) approach were quantitatively evaluated and compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC), the Dice coefficient, and the sensitivity and specificity metrics.ResultsStatistical analysis revealed the highest ROC AUC and Dice values for the hybrid approach. With 0.872 (ROC AUC; LR) and 0.353 (Dice; RF), these values were significantly higher (p < 0.01) than the values of the two other approaches. In addition, the local approach achieved the highest sensitivity of 0.448 (LR). Overall, the hybrid approach was only outperformed in sensitivity (LR) by the local approach and in specificity by both other approaches. However, in these cases the effect sizes were comparatively small.ConclusionThe results of this study suggest that using locally trained machine learning models can lead to better lesion outcome prediction results compared to a single global machine learning model trained using all voxel information independent of the location in the brain.

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Quantitative prediction of ischemic stroke tissue fate.

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