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Nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer.

ABSTRACT: Although adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients will benefit remains challenging because of the rarity of this disease. The specific aim of this study was to create a decision aid to help make individualized estimates of the potential survival benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with resected gallbladder cancer.Patients with resected gallbladder cancer were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) -Medicare database who were diagnosed between 1995 and 2005. Covariates included age, race, sex, stage, and receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Propensity score weighting was used to balance covariates between treated and untreated groups. Several types of multivariate survival regression models were constructed and compared, including Cox proportional hazards, Weibull, exponential, log-logistic, and lognormal models. Model performance was compared using the Akaike information criterion. The primary end point was overall survival with or without adjuvant chemotherapy or CRT.A total of 1,137 patients met the inclusion criteria for the study. The lognormal survival model showed the best performance. A Web browser-based nomogram was built from this model to make individualized estimates of survival. The model predicts that certain subsets of patients with at least T2 or N1 disease will gain a survival benefit from adjuvant CRT, and the magnitude of benefit for an individual patient can vary.A nomogram built from a parametric survival model from the SEER-Medicare database can be used as a decision aid to predict which gallbladder patients may benefit from adjuvant CRT.

SUBMITTER: Wang SJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3236647 | biostudies-other | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer.

Wang Samuel J SJ Lemieux Andrew A Kalpathy-Cramer Jayashree J Ord Celine B CB Walker Gary V GV Fuller C David CD Kim Jong-Sung JS Thomas Charles R CR

Journal of clinical oncology : official journal of the American Society of Clinical Oncology 20111107 35

<h4>Purpose</h4>Although adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer may improve survival for some patients, identifying which patients will benefit remains challenging because of the rarity of this disease. The specific aim of this study was to create a decision aid to help make individualized estimates of the potential survival benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for patients with resected gallbladder cancer.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with resected gallbladder cancer were select ...[more]

PMID: 22067404

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Project description:BackgroundGallbladder cancer (GBC) is a highly aggressive malignancy in elderly patients. Our goal is aimed to construct a novel nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly GBC patients.MethodWe extracted clinicopathological data of elderly GBC patients from the SEER database. We used univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to select the independent risk factors of elderly GBC patients. These risk factors were subsequently integrated to construct a predictive nomogram model. C-index, calibration curve, and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) were used to validate the accuracy and discrimination of the predictive nomogram model. A decision analysis curve (DCA) was used to evaluate the clinical value of the nomogram.ResultA total of 4241 elderly GBC patients were enrolled. We randomly divided patients from 2004 to 2015 into training cohort (n = 2237) and validation cohort (n = 1000), and patients from 2016 to 2018 as external validation cohort (n = 1004). Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis found that age, tumor histological grade, TNM stage, surgical method, chemotherapy, and tumor size were independent risk factors for the prognosis of elderly GBC patients. All independent risk factors selected were integrated into the nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival at 1-, 3-, and 5- years. In the training cohort, internal validation cohort, and external validation cohort, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.763, 0.756, and 0.786, respectively. The calibration curves suggested that the predicted value of the nomogram is highly consistent with the actual observed value. AUC also showed the high authenticity of the prediction model. DCA manifested that the nomogram model had better prediction ability than the conventional TNM staging system.ConclusionWe constructed a predictive nomogram model to predict CSS in elderly GBC patients by integrating independent risk factors. With relatively high accuracy and reliability, the nomogram can help clinicians predict the prognosis of patients and make more rational clinical decisions.

Project description:BackgroundThe optimal sequencing of chemotherapy and radiotherapy after breast surgery was largely studied but remains controversial. Concurrent chemo-radiotherapy is a valuable method for adjuvant treatment of breast cancer which is under ongoing research program in our hospital. We are evaluating the feasibility of the concomitant use of chemotherapy retrospectively.MethodsTwo hundred forty four women having breast cancer were investigated in a retrospective study. All patients were either treated by radical surgery or breast conservative surgery. The study compares two adjuvant treatments associating concomitant chemotherapy and radiotherapy. In the first group (group A) the patients were treated by chemotherapy and radiotherapy in concomitant way using anthracycline (n = 110). In the second group (group B) the patients were treated by chemotherapy and radiotherapy in concomitant way using CMF treatment (n = 134). Chemotherapy was administered in six cycles, one each 3 weeks. Radiotherapy delivered a radiation dose of 50 Gy on the whole breast (or on the external wall) and/or on the lymphatic region. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the rates of disease free survival, loco-regional recurrence-free survival and overall survival. The Pearson Khi2 test was used to analyse the homogeneity between the two groups. The log-rank test was used to evaluate the differences between the two groups A and B.ResultsAfter 76.4 months median follow-up (65.3 months mean follow up), only one patient relapsed to loco-regional breast cancer when the treatment was based on anthracycline. However, 8 patients relapsed to loco-regional breast cancer when the treatment was based on CMF. In the anthracycline group, the disease free survival after 5 years, was 80.4% compared to 76.4% in the CMF group (Log-rank test: p = 0.136). The overall survival after 5 years was 82.5% and 81.1% in the anthracycline and CMF groups respectively (Log-rank test: p = 0.428). The loco-regional free survival at 5 years was equal to 98.6% in group A and 94% in group B (Log-rank test: p = 0,033). The rate of grade II and grade III anaemia was 13.9% and 6.7% in anthracycline group and CMF group respectively (Khi2-test: p = 0.009). The rate of grade II and grade III skin dermatitis toxicity was 4.5% in the group A and 0% in the group B (Khi2-test: p = 0.013).ConclusionFrom the 5 years retrospective investigation we showed similar disease free survival and overall survival in the two concurrent chemo-radiotherapy treatments based on anthracycline and CMF. However in the loco-regional breast cancer the treatment based on anthracycline was significantly better than that of the treatment based on CMF. There was more haematological and skin dermatitis toxicity in the anthracycline group.

Dataset Information

Nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer.

Publications

Nomogram for predicting the benefit of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy for resected gallbladder cancer.

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