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A pathwise derivative approach to the computation of parameter sensitivities in discrete stochastic chemical systems.

ABSTRACT: Characterizing the sensitivity to infinitesimally small perturbations in parameters is a powerful tool for the analysis, modeling, and design of chemical reaction networks. Sensitivity analysis of networks modeled using stochastic chemical kinetics, in which a probabilistic description is used to characterize the inherent randomness of the system, is commonly performed using Monte Carlo methods. Monte Carlo methods require large numbers of stochastic simulations in order to generate accurate statistics, which is usually computationally demanding or in some cases altogether impractical due to the overwhelming computational cost. In this work, we address this problem by presenting the regularized pathwise derivative method for efficient sensitivity analysis. By considering a regularized sensitivity problem and using the random time change description for Markov processes, we are able to construct a sensitivity estimator based on pathwise differentiation (also known as infinitesimal perturbation analysis) that is valid for many problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The theoretical justification for the method is discussed, and a numerical algorithm is provided to permit straightforward implementation of the method. We show using numerical examples that the new regularized pathwise derivative method (1) is able to accurately estimate the sensitivities for many realistic problems and path functionals, and (2) in many cases outperforms alternative sensitivity methods, including the Girsanov likelihood ratio estimator and common reaction path finite difference method. In fact, we observe that the variance reduction using the regularized pathwise derivative method can be as large as ten orders of magnitude in certain cases, permitting much more efficient sensitivity analysis than is possible using other methods.

SUBMITTER: Sheppard PW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3272067 | biostudies-other | 2012 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundThe importance of stochasticity in cellular processes having low number of molecules has resulted in the development of stochastic models such as chemical master equation. As in other modelling frameworks, the accompanying rate constants are important for the end-applications like analyzing system properties (e.g. robustness) or predicting the effects of genetic perturbations. Prior knowledge of kinetic constants is usually limited and the model identification routine typically includes parameter estimation from experimental data. Although the subject of parameter estimation is well-established for deterministic models, it is not yet routine for the chemical master equation. In addition, recent advances in measurement technology have made the quantification of genetic substrates possible to single molecular levels. Thus, the purpose of this work is to develop practical and effective methods for estimating kinetic model parameters in the chemical master equation and other stochastic models from single cell and cell population experimental data.ResultsThree parameter estimation methods are proposed based on the maximum likelihood and density function distance, including probability and cumulative density functions. Since stochastic models such as chemical master equations are typically solved using a Monte Carlo approach in which only a finite number of Monte Carlo realizations are computationally practical, specific considerations are given to account for the effect of finite sampling in the histogram binning of the state density functions. Applications to three practical case studies showed that while maximum likelihood method can effectively handle low replicate measurements, the density function distance methods, particularly the cumulative density function distance estimation, are more robust in estimating the parameters with consistently higher accuracy, even for systems showing multimodality.ConclusionsThe parameter estimation methodologies described in this work have provided an effective and practical approach in the estimation of kinetic parameters of stochastic systems from either sparse or dense cell population data. Nevertheless, similar to kinetic parameter estimation in other modelling frameworks, not all parameters can be estimated accurately, which is a common problem arising from the lack of complete parameter identifiability from the available data.

Project description:Noise can degrade memories by causing transitions from one memory state to another. For any biological memory system to be useful, the time scale of such noise-induced transitions must be much longer than the required duration for memory retention. Using biophysically-realistic modeling, we consider two types of memory in the brain: short-term memories maintained by reverberating neuronal activity for a few seconds, and long-term memories maintained by a molecular switch for years. Both systems require persistence of (neuronal or molecular) activity self-sustained by an autocatalytic process and, we argue, that both have limited memory lifetimes because of significant fluctuations. We will first discuss a strongly recurrent cortical network model endowed with feedback loops, for short-term memory. Fluctuations are due to highly irregular spike firing, a salient characteristic of cortical neurons. Then, we will analyze a model for long-term memory, based on an autophosphorylation mechanism of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) molecules. There, fluctuations arise from the fact that there are only a small number of CaMKII molecules at each postsynaptic density (putative synaptic memory unit). Our results are twofold. First, we demonstrate analytically and computationally the exponential dependence of stability on the number of neurons in a self-excitatory network, and on the number of CaMKII proteins in a molecular switch. Second, for each of the two systems, we implement graded memory consisting of a group of bistable switches. For the neuronal network we report interesting ramping temporal dynamics as a result of sequentially switching an increasing number of discrete, bistable, units. The general observation of an exponential increase in memory stability with the system size leads to a trade-off between the robustness of memories (which increases with the size of each bistable unit) and the total amount of information storage (which decreases with increasing unit size), which may be optimized in the brain through biological evolution.

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A pathwise derivative approach to the computation of parameter sensitivities in discrete stochastic chemical systems.

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