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Seasonality, incidence and prognosis in atrial fibrillation and stroke in Denmark and New Zealand.

ABSTRACT: There are relatively few large studies of seasonal variation in the occurrence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the seasonal variation in incidence rates of hospitalisation with stroke in patients from Denmark and New Zealand.Cohort study.Nationwide hospital discharge data from Denmark and New Zealand.243 381 (median age 75) subjects having a first-time hospitalisation with AF in Denmark and 51 480 (median age 76) subjects in New Zealand constituted the study population. Subjects with previous hospitalisation with stroke were excluded. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY EFFECT MEASURES: Peak-to-trough ratio of the seasonal variation in incidence rates of stroke in AF patients adjusted for an overall trend was primary effect measure and was assessed using a log-linear Poisson regression model. Secondary effect measures were incidence rate ratios of AF and 30-day case fatality for stroke patients.Incidence rates of AF per 1000 person-years in Denmark increased by 5.4% (95% CI 5.3% to 5.7%) for patients aged <65 and 5% (95% CI 4.9% to 5.1%) for patients aged ?65, whereas the increase was 0.2% (95% CI -0.2% to 0.6%) for patients aged <65 and 2.6% (95% CI 2.4% to 2.8%) for patients aged ?65 in New Zealand. In Denmark 36 088 subjects were hospitalised with stroke, and 7518 subjects in New Zealand, both showing peaks during winter with peak-to-trough ratios of 1.22 and 1.27, respectively and a decreasing trend. The 30-day case fatality risk for stroke patients having AF is now (2000-2008) about 20% in both countries.Although incidence rates of hospitalisation with stroke in patients with AF have decreased in recent years, stroke remains a common AF complication with a high case fatality risk. The marked winter peak in incidence rates of hospitalisation with stroke in AF patients suggests that there are opportunities to reduce this complication. Further studies are necessary to identify how to optimise treatment of AF and prevention of stroke.

SUBMITTER: Christensen AL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3432837 | biostudies-other | 2012

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Seasonality, incidence and prognosis in atrial fibrillation and stroke in Denmark and New Zealand.

Christensen Anette Luther AL Rasmussen Lars Hvilsted LH Baker Michael G MG Lip Gregory Y H GY Dethlefsen Claus C Larsen Torben Bjerregaard TB

BMJ open 20120824 4

<h4>Objectives</h4>There are relatively few large studies of seasonal variation in the occurrence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated the seasonal variation in incidence rates of hospitalisation with stroke in patients from Denmark and New Zealand.<h4>Design</h4>Cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Nationwide hospital discharge data from Denmark and New Zealand.<h4>Participants</h4>243 381 (median age 75) subjects having a first-time hospitalisation with AF in Denmark an ...[more]

PMID: 22923628

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Project description:Background and Purpose- It is unclear whether atrial fibrillation/flutter (AF) newly diagnosed after ischemic stroke represents a preexisting risk factor that led to stroke, an arrhythmia triggered by poststroke autonomic dysfunction, or an incidental finding. Methods- We compared AF incidence after hospitalizations for ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and nonstroke conditions using inpatient and outpatient claims between 2008 and 2015 from a nationally representative 5% sample of Medicare beneficiaries. We used validated International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification ( ICD-9-CM) codes to identify AF-free patients hospitalized with ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke and matched them in a 1:1 ratio by age, sex, race, calendar year, vascular risk factors, and Charlson comorbidities. We then matched the combined stroke cohort in a 1:1 ratio to patients hospitalized for nonstroke diagnoses. We used survival statistics and Cox regression to compare postdischarge AF incidence among groups. Results- We matched 2580 patients with ischemic stroke, 2580 with hemorrhagic stroke, and 5160 patients with other conditions. The annual postdischarge AF incidence was 3.4% (95% CI, 3.1%-3.7%) after ischemic stroke, 2.2% (95% CI, 1.9%-2.4%) after hemorrhagic stroke, and 2.9% (95% CI, 2.6%-3.1%) after nonstroke hospitalization. Ischemic stroke was associated with a somewhat higher risk of AF than hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.8) or nonstroke conditions (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). The latter association attenuated in sensitivity analyses limiting the outcome to AF diagnoses made by cardiologists (hazard ratio, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.8-1.5) or limiting the outcome to a minimum of 2 AF claims on separate dates (hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI, 1.0-1.5; P=0.09). Conclusions- New diagnoses of AF were more common after hospitalization for ischemic stroke than after hospitalization for hemorrhagic stroke or nonstroke conditions, but all hospitalized patients had a substantial incidence of new AF diagnoses after discharge and differences were attenuated when using more stringent definitions.

Project description:ImportanceData on the burden of new-onset atrial fibrillation after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) and surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) is limited mostly to small series or post hoc analyses of clinical trials.ObjectivesTo evaluate the incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation and assess the incidence of in-hospital mortality associated with new-onset atrial fibrillation after TAVI and AVR.Design, setting, and participantsIn this population-based observational study using the National Inpatient Sample and a validation cohort from the New York state inpatient database, the National Inpatient Sample was queried from January 1, 2012, to September 30, 2015, and the New York state inpatient database was queried from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2014. Hospitalizations of adults undergoing TAVI or isolated AVR were examined. The incidence of in-hospital mortality across groups with new-onset atrial fibrillation was assessed in the National Inpatient Sample cohort using multivariable logistic regression modeling. Statistical analysis was conducted from August 20, 2018, to March 19, 2019.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the occurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation, which was identified by excluding hospitalizations in which atrial fibrillation was present on admission. The secondary outcome was in-hospital mortality in TAVI and AVR hospitalizations with and without new-onset atrial fibrillation.ResultsA total of 48 715 TAVI hospitalizations (47.4% women and 52.6% men; mean [SD] age, 81.3 [8.1] years; 82.3% white) and 122 765 AVR hospitalizations (39.0% women and 61.0% men; mean [SD] age, 67.8 [12.0] years; 78.0% white) were identified. New-onset atrial fibrillation occurred in 50.4% of TAVI hospitalizations and 50.1% of AVR hospitalizations. In the multivariable-adjusted model, TAVI and AVR hospitalizations with new-onset atrial fibrillation had higher odds of in-hospital mortality compared with hospitalizations without new-onset atrial fibrillation (TAVI: odds ratio, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.21-2.04; and AVR: odds ratio, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.08-1.70). The results were then confirmed with the New York state inpatient database, which contains a present on arrival indicator. The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation was 14.1% (244 of 1736 hospitalizations) after TAVI and 30.6% (1573 of 5141 hospitalizations) after AVR in the New York state inpatient database.Conclusions and relevanceIn this large nationwide study, a substantial burden of new-onset atrial fibrillation was observed after TAVI and AVR. The incidence of new-onset atrial fibrillation was higher after AVR than after TAVI in a patient-level state inpatient database.

Dataset Information

Seasonality, incidence and prognosis in atrial fibrillation and stroke in Denmark and New Zealand.

Publications

Seasonality, incidence and prognosis in atrial fibrillation and stroke in Denmark and New Zealand.

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