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Microsimulation of financial impact of demand surge on hospitals: the H1N1 influenza pandemic of fall 2009.

ABSTRACT: Microsimulation was used to assess the financial impact on hospitals of a surge in influenza admissions in advance of the H1N1 pandemic in the fall of 2009. The goal was to estimate net income and losses (nationally, and by hospital type) of a response of filling unused hospital bed capacity proportionately and postponing elective admissions (a "passive" supply response).Epidemiologic assumptions were combined with assumptions from other literature (e.g., staff absenteeism, profitability by payer class), Census data on age groups by region, and baseline hospital utilization data. Hospital discharge records were available from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). Hospital bed capacity and staffing were measured with the American Hospital Association's (AHA) Annual Survey.Nationwide, in a scenario of relatively severe epidemiologic assumptions, we estimated aggregate net income of $119 million for about 1 million additional influenza-related admissions, and a net loss of $37 million for 52,000 postponed elective admissions.Aggregate and distributional results did not suggest that a policy of promising additional financial compensation to hospitals in anticipation of the surge in flu cases was necessary. The analysis identified needs for better information of several types to improve simulations of hospital behavior and impacts during demand surges.

SUBMITTER: Braithwaite S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3626336 | biostudies-other | 2013 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Microsimulation of financial impact of demand surge on hospitals: the H1N1 influenza pandemic of fall 2009.

Braithwaite Sabina S Friedman Bernard B Mutter Ryan R Handrigan Michael M

Health services research 20130210 2 Pt 2

<h4>Objective</h4>Microsimulation was used to assess the financial impact on hospitals of a surge in influenza admissions in advance of the H1N1 pandemic in the fall of 2009. The goal was to estimate net income and losses (nationally, and by hospital type) of a response of filling unused hospital bed capacity proportionately and postponing elective admissions (a "passive" supply response).<h4>Methods</h4>Epidemiologic assumptions were combined with assumptions from other literature (e.g., staff ...[more]

PMID: 23398540

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Project description:Because many Aboriginal Canadians had severe cases of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza, they were given priority access to vaccine. However, it was not known if the single recommended dose would adequately protect people at high risk, prompting our study to assess responses to the vaccine among Aboriginal Canadians.We enrolled First Nations and Métis adults aged 20-59 years in our prospective cohort study. Participants were given one 0.5-mL dose of ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine (Arepanrix, GlaxoSmithKline Canada). Blood samples were taken at baseline and 21-28 days after vaccination. Paired sera were tested for hemagglutination-inhibiting antibodies at a reference laboratory. To assess vaccine safety, we monitored the injection site symptoms of each participant for seven days. We also monitored patients for general symptoms within 7 days of vaccination and any use of the health care system for 21-28 days after vaccination.We enrolled 138 participants in the study (95 First Nations, 43 Métis), 137 of whom provided all safety data and 136 of whom provided both blood samples. First Nations and Métis participants had similar characteristics, including high rates of chronic health conditions (74.4%-76.8%). Pre-existing antibody to the virus was detected in 34.3% of the participants, all of whom boosted strongly with vaccination (seroprotection rate [titre ? 40] 100%, geometric mean titre 531-667). Participants with no pre-existing antibody also responded well. Fifty-eight of 59 (98.3%) First Nations participants showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 353.6; all 30 Métis participants with no pre-existing antibody showed seroprotection and a geometric mean titre of 376.2. Pain at the injection site and general symptoms frequently occurred but were short-lived and generally not severe, although three participants (2.2%) sought medical attention for general symptoms.First Nations and Métis adults responded robustly to ASO3-adjuvanted pandemic (H1N1) 2009 vaccine. Virtually all participants showed protective titres, including those with chronic health conditions.

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Microsimulation of financial impact of demand surge on hospitals: the H1N1 influenza pandemic of fall 2009.

Publications

Microsimulation of financial impact of demand surge on hospitals: the H1N1 influenza pandemic of fall 2009.

Similar Datasets

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