Power calculations for genetic association studies using estimated probability distributions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Schork NJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC379135 | biostudies-other | 2002 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:IntroductionWhen analyzing data from large-scale genetic association studies, such as targeted or genome-wide resequencing studies, it is common to assume a single genetic model, such as dominant or additive, for all tests of association between a given genetic variant and the phenotype. However, for many variants, the chosen model will result in poor model fit and may lack statistical power due to model misspecification.ObjectiveWe develop power and sample size calculations for tests of gene and gene × environment interaction, allowing for misspecification of the true mode of genetic susceptibility.MethodsThe power calculations are based on a likelihood ratio test framework and are implemented in an open-source R package ("genpwr").ResultsWe use these methods to develop an analysis plan for a resequencing study in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and show that using a 2-degree of freedom test can increase power to detect recessive genetic effects while maintaining power to detect dominant and additive effects.ConclusionsUnderstanding the impact of model misspecification can aid in study design and developing analysis plans that maximize power to detect a range of true underlying genetic effects. In particular, these calculations help identify when a multiple degree of freedom test or other robust test of association may be advantageous.
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Project description:Propensity score weighting is increasingly being used in observational studies to estimate the effects of treatments. The use of such weights induces a within-person homogeneity in outcomes that must be accounted for when estimating the variance of the estimated treatment effect. Knowledge of the variance inflation factor (VIF), which describes the extent to which the effective sample size has been reduced by weighting, allows for conducting sample size and power calculations for observational studies that use propensity score weighting. However, estimation of the VIF requires knowledge of the weights, which are only known once the study has been conducted. We describe methods to estimate the VIF based on two characteristics of the observational study: the anticipated prevalence of treatment and the anticipated c-statistic of the propensity score model. We considered five different sets of weights: those for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE), the average treated effect in the treated (ATT), and three recently described sets of weights: overlap weights, matching weights, and entropy weights. The VIF was substantially smaller for the latter three sets of weights than for the first two sets of weights. Once the VIF has been estimated during the design phase of the study, sample size and power calculations can be done using calculations appropriate for a randomized controlled trial with similar prevalence of treatment and similar outcome variable, and then multiplying the requisite sample size by the estimated VIF. Implementation of these methods allows for improving the design and reporting of observational studies that use propensity score weighting.
| S-EPMC9293235 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective:Standard approaches for large scale phenotypic screens using electronic health record (EHR) data apply thresholds, such as ?2 diagnosis codes, to define subjects as having a phenotype. However, the variation in the accuracy of diagnosis codes can impair the power of such screens. Our objective was to develop and evaluate an approach which converts diagnosis codes into a probability of a phenotype (PheProb). We hypothesized that this alternate approach for defining phenotypes would improve power for genetic association studies. Methods:The PheProb approach employs unsupervised clustering to separate patients into 2 groups based on diagnosis codes. Subjects are assigned a probability of having the phenotype based on the number of diagnosis codes. This approach was developed using simulated EHR data and tested in a real world EHR cohort. In the latter, we tested the association between low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) genetic risk alleles known for association with hyperlipidemia and hyperlipidemia codes (ICD-9 272.x). PheProb and thresholding approaches were compared. Results:Among n?=?1462 subjects in the real world EHR cohort, the threshold-based p-values for association between the genetic risk score (GRS) and hyperlipidemia were 0.126 (?1 code), 0.123 (?2 codes), and 0.142 (?3 codes). The PheProb approach produced the expected significant association between the GRS and hyperlipidemia: p?=?.001. Conclusions:PheProb improves statistical power for association studies relative to standard thresholding approaches by leveraging information about the phenotype in the billing code counts. The PheProb approach has direct applications where efficient approaches are required, such as in Phenome-Wide Association Studies.
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Project description:Statistical power calculations constitute an essential first step in the planning of scientific studies. If sufficient summary statistics are available, power calculations are in principle straightforward and computationally light. In designs, which comprise distinct groups (e.g., MZ & DZ twins), sufficient statistics can be calculated within each group, and analyzed in a multi-group model. However, when the number of possible groups is prohibitively large (say, in the hundreds), power calculations on the basis of the summary statistics become impractical. In that case, researchers may resort to Monte Carlo based power studies, which involve the simulation of hundreds or thousands of replicate samples for each specified set of population parameters. Here we present exact data simulation as a third method of power calculation. Exact data simulation involves a transformation of raw data so that the data fit the hypothesized model exactly. As in power calculation with summary statistics, exact data simulation is computationally light, while the number of groups in the analysis has little bearing on the practicality of the method. The method is applied to three genetic designs for illustrative purposes.
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Project description:Genome-wide association studies of clinically defined cases against controls have transformed our understanding of the genetic causes of many diseases. However, there are limitations to the simple clinical definitions used in these studies, and GWAS analyses are beginning to explore more refined phenotypes in subgroups of the existing data sets. These analyses are often performed ad hoc without considering the power requirements to justify such analyses. Here we derive expressions for the relative power of such subgroup analyses and determine the genotypic relative risks (GRRs) required to achieve equivalent power to a full analysis for relevant scenarios. We show that only modest increases in GRRs may be required to offset the reduction in power from analysing fewer cases, implying that analyses of more genetically homogenous case subgroups may have the potential to identify further associations. We find that, for lower genotypic relative risks in the full sample, subgroup analyses of more homogeneous cases have relatively more power than for higher index genotypic relative risks and that this effect is stronger for rare as opposed to common variants. As GWA studies are likely to have now identified the majority of SNPs with stronger effects, these results strongly advocate a renewed effort to identify phenotypically homogeneous disease groups, in which power to detect genetic variants with small effects will be greater. These results suggest that analysis of case subsets could be a powerful strategy to uncover some of the hidden heritability for common complex disorders, particularly in identifying rarer variants of modest effect.
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Project description:To date, genome-wide association studies have focused almost exclusively on populations of European ancestry. These studies continue with the advent of next-generation sequencing, designed to systematically catalog and test low-frequency variation for a role in disease. A complementary approach would be to focus further efforts on cohorts of multiple ethnicities. This leverages the idea that population genetic drift may have elevated some variants to higher allele frequency in different populations, boosting statistical power to detect an association. Based on empirical allele frequency distributions from eleven populations represented in HapMap Phase 3 and the 1000 Genomes Project, we simulate a range of genetic models to quantify the power of association studies in multiple ethnicities relative to studies that exclusively focus on samples of European ancestry. In each of these simulations, a first phase of GWAS in exclusively European samples is followed by a second GWAS phase in any of the other populations (including a multiethnic design). We find that nontrivial power gains can be achieved by conducting future whole-genome studies in worldwide populations, where, in particular, African populations contribute the largest relative power gains for low-frequency alleles (<5%) of moderate effect that suffer from low power in samples of European descent. Our results emphasize the importance of broadening genetic studies to worldwide populations to ensure efficient discovery of genetic loci contributing to phenotypic trait variability, especially for those traits for which large numbers of samples of European ancestry have already been collected and tested.
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Project description:A key to increasing the power of multilocus association tests is to reduce the number of degrees of freedom by suppressing noise from data. One of the difficulties is to decide how much noise to suppress. An often overlooked problem is that commonly used association tests based on genotype data cannot utilize the genetic information contained in spatial ordering of SNPs (see proof in the Appendix), which may prevent them from achieving higher power.We develop a score test based on wavelet transform with empirical Bayesian thresholding. Extensive simulation studies are carried out under various LD structures as well as using HapMap data from many different chromosomes for both qualitative and quantitative traits. Simulation results show that the proposed test automatically adjusts the level of noise suppression according to LD structures, and it is able to consistently achieve higher or similar powers than many commonly used association tests including the principle component regression method (PCReg).The wavelet-based score test automatically suppresses the right amount of noise and uses the information contained in spatial ordering of SNPs to achieve higher power.
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Project description:Ongoing increases in the size of human genotype and phenotype collections offer the promise of improved understanding of the genetics of complex diseases. In addition to the biological insights that can be gained from the nature of the variants that contribute to the genetic component of complex trait variability, these data bring forward the prospect of predicting complex traits and the risk of complex genetic diseases from genotype data. Here we show that advances in phenotype prediction can be applied to improve the power of genome-wide association studies. We demonstrate a simple and efficient method to model genetic background effects using polygenic scores derived from SNPs that are not on the same chromosome as the target SNP. Using simulated and real data we found that this can result in a substantial increase in the number of variants passing genome-wide significance thresholds. This increase in power to detect trait-associated variants also translates into an increase in the accuracy with which the resulting polygenic score predicts the phenotype from genotype data. Our results suggest that advances in methods for phenotype prediction can be exploited to improve the control of background genetic effects, leading to more accurate GWAS results and further improvements in phenotype prediction.
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Project description:Population-based genetic association studies have proven to be a powerful tool in identifying genes implicated in many complex human diseases that have a huge impact on public health. An essential quality control step in such studies is to undertake Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HWE) calculations. Deviations from HWE in the control group may reflect important problems including selection bias, population stratification and genotyping errors. If HWE is violated, the inferences of these studies may thus be biased. We therefore aimed to examine the extent to which HWE calculations are reported in genetic association studies published in Cell Journal(Yakhteh)(Cell J). Using keywords pertaining to genetic association studies, eleven relevant articles were identified of which ten provided full genotypic data. The genotype distribution of 16 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was re-analyzed for HWE by using three different methods where appropriate. HWE was not reported in 60% of all articles investigated. Among those reporting, only one article provided calculations correctly and in detail. Therefore, 90% of articles analyzed failed to provide sufficient HWE data. Interestingly, three articles had significant HWE deviation in their control groups of which one highly deviated from HWE expectations (P= 9.8×10(-12)). We thus show that HWE calculations are under-reported in genetic association studies published in this journal. Furthermore, the conclusions of the three studies showing significant HWE in their control groups should be treated cautiously as they may be potentially misleading. We therefore recommend that reporting of detailed HWE calculations should become mandatory for such studies in the future.
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Project description:Genome-wide association (GWA) studies are a powerful approach for identifying novel genetic risk factors associated with human disease. A GWA study typically requires the inclusion of thousands of samples to have sufficient statistical power to detect single nucleotide polymorphisms that are associated with only modest increases in risk of disease given the heavy burden of a multiple test correction that is necessary to maintain valid statistical tests. Low statistical power and the high financial cost of performing a GWA study remains prohibitive for many scientific investigators anxious to perform such a study using their own samples. A number of remedies have been suggested to increase statistical power and decrease cost, including the utilization of free publicly available genotype data and multi-stage genotyping designs. Herein, we compare the statistical power and relative costs of alternative association study designs that use cases and screened controls to study designs that are based only on, or additionally include, free public control genotype data. We describe a novel replication-based two-stage study design, which uses free public control genotype data in the first stage and follow-up genotype data on case-matched controls in the second stage that preserves many of the advantages inherent when using only an epidemiologically matched set of controls. Specifically, we show that our proposed two-stage design can substantially increase statistical power and decrease cost of performing a GWA study while controlling the type-I error rate that can be inflated when using public controls due to differences in ancestry and batch genotype effects.
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