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Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Injury prediction scores facilitate the development of clinical management protocols to decrease mortality. However, most of the previously developed scores are limited in scope and are non-specific for use in children. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of death for injured and Traumatised Thai children. METHODS: Our cross-sectional study included 43,516 injured children from 34 emergency services. A risk prediction model was derived using a logistic regression analysis that included 15 predictors. Model performance was assessed using the concordance statistic (C-statistic) and the observed per expected (O/E) ratio. Internal validation of the model was performed using a 200-repetition bootstrap analysis. RESULTS: Death occurred in 1.7% of the injured children (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 1.57-1.82). Ten predictors (i.e., age, airway intervention, physical injury mechanism, three injured body regions, the Glasgow Coma Scale, and three vital signs) were significantly associated with death. The C-statistic and the O/E ratio were 0.938 (95% CI: 0.929-0.947) and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.70-1.02), respectively. The scoring scheme classified three risk stratifications with respective likelihood ratios of 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25-1.27), 2.45 (95% CI: 2.42-2.52), and 4.72 (95% CI: 4.57-4.88) for low, intermediate, and high risks of death. Internal validation showed good model performance (C-statistic = 0.938, 95% CI: 0.926-0.952) and a small calibration bias of 0.002 (95% CI: 0.0005-0.003). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a simplified Thai pediatric injury death prediction score with satisfactory calibrated and discriminative performance in emergency room settings.

SUBMITTER: Vallipakorn SA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3939810 | biostudies-other | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children.

Vallipakorn Sakda Arj-ong SA Plitapolkarnpim Adisak A Suriyawongpaisal Paibul P Techakamolsuk Pimpa P Smith Gary A GA Thakkinstian Ammarin A

BMC pediatrics 20140228

<h4>Background</h4>Injury prediction scores facilitate the development of clinical management protocols to decrease mortality. However, most of the previously developed scores are limited in scope and are non-specific for use in children. We aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model of death for injured and Traumatised Thai children.<h4>Methods</h4>Our cross-sectional study included 43,516 injured children from 34 emergency services. A risk prediction model was derived using a logist ...[more]

PMID: 24575982

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Although sudden cardiac death is a leading cause of death in the United States, most victims of sudden cardiac death are not identified as at risk prior to death. We sought to derive and validate a population-based risk score that predicts sudden cardiac death. METHODS:The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study recorded clinical measures from men and women aged 45-64 years at baseline; 11,335 white and 3780 black participants were included in this analysis. Participants were followed over 10 years and sudden cardiac death was physician adjudicated. Cox proportional hazards models were used to derive race-specific equations to estimate the 10-year sudden cardiac death risk. Covariates for the risk score were selected from available demographic and clinical variables. Utility was assessed by calculating discrimination (Harrell's C-index) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-squared test). The white-specific equation was validated among 5626 Framingham Heart Study participants. RESULTS:During 10 years' follow-up among ARIC participants (mean age 54.4 years, 52.4% women), 145 participants experienced sudden cardiac death; the majority occurred in the highest quintile of predicted risk. Model covariates included age, sex, total cholesterol, lipid-lowering and hypertension medication use, blood pressure, smoking status, diabetes, and body mass index. The score yielded very good internal discrimination (white-specific C-index 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78-0.85; black-specific C-index 0.75; 95% CI, 0.68-0.82) and very good external discrimination among Framingham participants (C-index 0.82; 95% CI, 0.79-0.86). Calibration plots indicated excellent calibration in ARIC (white-specific chi-squared 5.3, P = .82; black-specific chi-squared 4.1, P = .77), and a simple recalibration led to excellent fit within Framingham (chi-squared 2.1, P = 0.99). CONCLUSIONS:The proposed risk scores may be used to identify those at risk for sudden cardiac death within 10 years and particularly classify those at highest risk who may merit further screening.

Dataset Information

Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children.

Publications

Risk prediction score for death of traumatised and injured children.

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