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Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. METHODS: We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledge from a panel of 23 Egyptian experts (among whom 17 were hepatologists or gastroenterologists and 2 were infectiologists). The questionnaire was based on virtual medical cases and asked the experts to assess probability of death or probability of various cirrhosis complications. The design was a Delphi study: we attempted to obtain a consensus between experts via a series of questionnaires interspersed with group response feedback. RESULTS: We found substantial disparity between experts' answers, and no consensus was reached at the end of the process. Moreover, we obtained high death probability and high risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. The annual transition probability to death was estimated at between 10.1% and 61.5% and the annual probability of occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma was estimated at between 16.8% and 58.9% (depending on age, gender, time spent in cirrhosis and cirrhosis severity). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that eliciting expert opinions is not suited for determining the natural history of diseases due to practitioners' difficulties in evaluating quantities. Cognitive bias occurring during this type of study might explain our results.

SUBMITTER: Cousien A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4003824 | biostudies-other | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

Cousien Anthony A Obach Dorothée D Deuffic-Burban Sylvie S Mostafa Aya A Esmat Gamal G Canva Valérie V El Kassas Mohamed M El-Sayed Mohammad M Anwar Wagida A WA Fontanet Arnaud A Mohamed Mostafa K MK Yazdanpanah Yazdan Y

BMC medical research methodology 20140317

<h4>Background</h4>Data on HCV-related cirrhosis progression are scarce in developing countries in general, and in Egypt in particular. The objective of this study was to estimate the probability of death and transition between different health stages of HCV (compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma) for an Egyptian population of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis.<h4>Methods</h4>We used the "elicitation of expert opinions" method to obtain collective knowledg ...[more]

PMID: 24635942

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Project description:BackgroundCurrently, over 300 languages are spoken in Australian homes. People without proficient English from non-English speaking countries may not receive equitable care if their health care workers do not speak their primary language. Use of professional interpreters is considered the gold standard; however, for a variety of reasons, it is often limited to key aspects of care such as diagnosis and consent. With the emergence of mobile technologies, health care workers are increasingly using digital translation tools to fill this gap. However, many of these technologies have not been developed for health care settings and their use has not been evaluated.ObjectiveThis study aimed to evaluate iPad-compatible language translation apps to determine their suitability for enabling everyday conversations in health care settings.MethodsTranslation apps were identified by searching the Apple iTunes Store and published and grey literature. Criteria for inclusion were that the apps were available at no cost, able to translate at least one of the top 10 languages spoken in Australia, and available for use on iPad. Apps that met inclusion criteria were reviewed in 2 stages. Stage 1 was the feature analysis conducted by 2 independent researchers, where apps were evaluated for offline use, input and output methods, and number of languages. Stage 2 was the analysis of suitability for everyday communication in the health care setting, conducted by 2 independent professionals with expertise in translation and cross-cultural communication. Apps that enabled key aspects of care normally within the realm of professional interpreters, such as assessment, treatment and discharge planning, and seeking consent for medical treatments, were considered unsuitable.ResultsIn total, 15 apps were evaluated. Of these, 8 apps contained voice-to-voice and voice-to-text translation options. In addition, 6 apps were restricted to using preset health phrases, whereas 1 app used a combination of free input and preset phrases. However, 5 apps were excluded before stage 2. In addition, 6 of the 10 remaining apps reviewed in stage 2 were specifically designed for health care translation purposes. Of these, 2 apps were rated as suitable for everyday communication in the health care setting-culturally and linguistically diverse Assist and Talk To Me. Both apps contained simple and appropriate preset health phrases and did not contain conversations that are normally within the realm of professional interpreters.ConclusionsAll iPad-compatible translation apps require a degree of caution and consideration when used in health care settings, and none should replace professional interpreters. However, some apps may be suitable for everyday conversations, such as those that enable preset phrases to be translated on subject matters that do not require a professional interpreter. Further research into the use of translation technology for these types of conversations is needed.

Dataset Information

Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

Publications

Is expert opinion reliable when estimating transition probabilities? The case of HCV-related cirrhosis in Egypt.

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