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Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

ABSTRACT: Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.We enhanced a previously described simulation model of the optimal time to initiate ART to incorporate the rate of availability of new antiviral drugs. We assumed that the future rate of availability of new drugs would be similar to the past rate of availability of new drugs, and we estimated the past rate by fitting a statistical model to actual HIV drug approval data from 1982-2010. We then tested whether or not the future availability of new drugs affected the model-predicted optimal time to initiate ART based on clinical outcomes, considering treatment initiation thresholds of 200, 350, and 500 cells/mm3. We also quantified the impact of the future availability of new drugs on life expectancy (LE) and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE).In base case analysis, considering the availability of new drugs raised the optimal starting CD4 threshold for most patients to 500 cells/mm3. The predicted gains in outcomes due to availability of pipeline drugs were generally small (less than 1%), but for young patients with a high viral load could add as much as a 4.9% (1.73 years) increase in LE and a 8% (2.43 QALY) increase in QALE, because these patients were particularly likely to exhaust currently available ART regimens before they died. In sensitivity analysis, increasing the rate of availability of new drugs did not substantially alter the results. Lowering the toxicity of future ART drugs had greater potential to increase benefit for many patient groups, increasing QALE by as much as 10%.The future availability of new ART drugs without lower toxicity raises optimal treatment initiation for most patients, and improves clinical outcomes, especially for younger patients with higher viral loads. Reductions in toxicity of future ART drugs could impact optimal treatment initiation and improve clinical outcomes for all HIV patients.

SUBMITTER: Khademi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4070901 | biostudies-other | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

Khademi Amin A Braithwaite R Scott RS Saure Denis D Schaefer Andrew J AJ Nucifora Kimberly K Roberts Mark S MS

PloS one 20140625 6

<h4>Background</h4>Many analyses of HIV treatment decisions assume a fixed formulary of HIV drugs. However, new drugs are approved nearly twice a year, and the rate of availability of new drugs may affect treatment decisions, particularly when to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART).<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine the impact of considering the availability of new drugs on the optimal initiation criteria for ART and outcomes in patients with HIV/AIDS.<h4>Methods</h4>We enhanced a previously desc ...[more]

PMID: 24963883

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Project description:BackgroundFor people with HIV and CD4+ counts >500 cells/mm3, early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces serious AIDS and serious non-AIDS (SNA) risk compared with deferral of treatment until CD4+ counts are <350 cells/mm3. Whether excess risk of AIDS and SNA persists once ART is initiated for those who defer treatment is uncertain.MethodsThe Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial, as previously reported, randomly assigned 4684 ART-naive HIV-positive adults with CD4+ counts .500 cells/mm3 to immediate treatment initiation after random assignment (n = 2325) or deferred treatment (n= 2359). In 2015, a 57% lower risk of the primary end point (AIDS, SNA, or death) for the immediate group was reported, and the deferred group was offered ART. This article reports the follow-up that continued to December 31, 2021. Cox proportional-hazards models were used to compare hazard ratios for the primary end point from randomization through December 31, 2015, versus January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2021.ResultsThrough December 31, 2015, approximately 7 months after the cutoff date from the previous report, the median CD4+ count was 648 and 460 cells/mm3 in the immediate and deferred groups, respectively, at treatment initiation. The percentage of follow-up time spent taking ART was 95% and 36% for the immediate and deferred groups, respectively, and the time-averaged CD4+ difference was 199 cells/mm3. After January 1, 2016, the percentage of follow-up time on treatment was 97.2% and 94.1% for the immediate and deferred groups, respectively, and the CD4+ count difference was 155 cells/mm3. After January 1, 2016, a total of 89 immediate and 113 deferred group participants experienced a primary end point (hazard ratio of 0.79 [95% confidence interval, 0.60 to 1.04] versus hazard ratio of 0.47 [95% confidence interval, 0.34 to 0.65; P<0.001]) before 2016 (P=0.02 for hazard ratio difference).ConclusionsAmong adults with CD4+ counts >500 cells/mm3, excess risk of AIDS and SNA associated with delaying treatment initiation was diminished after ART initiation, but persistent excess risk remained. (Funded by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and others.).

Project description:IntroductionAs global policy evolves toward initiating lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of CD4 count, initiating individuals newly diagnosed with HIV on ART as efficiently as possible will become increasingly important. To inform progress, we conducted a systematic review of pre-ART interventions aiming to increase ART initiation in sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsWe searched PubMed, Embase and the ISI Web of Knowledge from 1 January 2008 to 1 March 2015, extended in PubMed to 25 May 2016, for English language publications pertaining to any country in sub-Saharan Africa and reporting on general adult populations. We included studies describing interventions aimed at increasing linkage to HIV care, retention in pre-ART or uptake of ART, which reported ART initiation as an outcome. We synthesized the evidence on causal intervention effects in meta-analysis of studies belonging to distinct intervention categories.Results and discussionWe identified 22 studies, which evaluated 25 interventions and included data on 45,393 individual patients. Twelve of twenty-two studies were observational. Rapid/point-of-care (POC) CD4 count technology (seven interventions) (relative risk, RR: 1.26; 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.02-1.55), interventions within home-based testing (two interventions) (RR: 2.00; 95% CI: 1.36-2.92), improved clinic operations (three interventions) (RR: 1.36; 95% CI: 1.25-1.48) and a package of patient-directed services (three interventions) (RR: 1.54; 95% CI: 1.20-1.97) were all associated with increased ART initiation as was HIV/TB service integration (three interventions) (RR: 2.05; 95% CI: 0.59-7.09) but with high imprecision. Provider-initiated testing (three interventions) was associated with reduced ART initiation (RR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.86-0.97). Counselling and support interventions (two interventions) (RR 1.08; 95% CI: 0.94-1.26) had no impact on ART initiation. Overall, the evidence was graded as low or moderate quality using the GRADE criteria.ConclusionsThe literature on interventions to increase uptake of ART is limited and of mixed quality. POC CD4 count and improving clinic operations show promise. More implementation research and evaluation is needed to identify how best to offer treatment initiation in a manner that is both efficient for service providers and effective for patients without jeopardizing treatment outcomes.

Project description:HIV infection and certain antiretroviral therapy (ART) medications increase atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, mediated, in part, through traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors. We studied cardiovascular disease risk factor changes in the START (Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Treatment) trial, a randomized study of immediate versus deferred ART initiation among HIV-positive persons with CD4+ cell counts >500 cells/mm3. Mean change from baseline in risk factors and the incidence of comorbid conditions were compared between groups. The characteristics among 4685 HIV-positive START trial participants include a median age of 36 years, a CD4 cell count of 651 cells/mm3, an HIV viral load of 12 759 copies/mL, a current smoking status of 32%, a median systolic/diastolic blood pressure of 120/76 mm Hg, and median levels of total cholesterol of 168 mg/dL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol of 102 mg/dL, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol of 41 mg/dL. Mean follow-up was 3.0 years. The immediate and deferred ART groups spent 94% and 28% of follow-up time taking ART, respectively. Compared with patients in the deferral group, patients in the immediate ART group had increased total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and higher use of lipid-lowering therapy (1.2%; 95% CI, 0.1-2.2). Concurrent increases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol with immediate ART resulted in a 0.1 lower total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (95% CI, 0.1-0.2). Immediate ART resulted in 2.3% less BP-lowering therapy use (95% CI, 0.9-3.6), but there were no differences in new-onset hypertension or diabetes mellitus. Among HIV-positive persons with preserved immunity, immediate ART led to increases in total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol but also concurrent increases in high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and decreased use of blood pressure medications. These opposing effects suggest that, in the short term, the net effect of early ART on traditional cardiovascular disease risk factors may be clinically insignificant." URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00867048.

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Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

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Should expectations about the rate of new antiretroviral drug development impact the timing of HIV treatment initiation and expectations about treatment benefits?

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