Dataset Information

A gentle introduction to bayesian analysis: applications to developmental research.

ABSTRACT: Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayesian methods explained in this study, in a second example a series of studies that examine the theoretical framework of dynamic interactionism are considered. In the Discussion the advantages and disadvantages of using Bayesian statistics are reviewed, and guidelines on how to report on Bayesian statistics are provided.

SUBMITTER: van de Schoot R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4158865 | biostudies-other | 2014 May-Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A gentle introduction to bayesian analysis: applications to developmental research.

van de Schoot Rens R Kaplan David D Denissen Jaap J Asendorpf Jens B JB Neyer Franz J FJ van Aken Marcel A G MAG

Child development 20131009 3

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, the ingredients underlying Bayesian methods are introduced using a simplified example. Thereafter, the advantages and pitfalls of the specification of prior knowledge are discussed. To illustrate Bayes ...[more]

PMID: 24116396

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundPrediction and classification algorithms are commonly used in clinical research for identifying patients susceptible to clinical conditions such as diabetes, colon cancer, and Alzheimer's disease. Developing accurate prediction and classification methods benefits personalized medicine. Building an excellent predictive model involves selecting the features that are most significantly associated with the outcome. These features can include several biological and demographic characteristics, such as genomic biomarkers and health history. Such variable selection becomes challenging when the number of potential predictors is large. Bayesian shrinkage models have emerged as popular and flexible methods of variable selection in regression settings. This work discusses variable selection with three shrinkage priors and illustrates its application to clinical data such as Pima Indians Diabetes, Colon cancer, ADNI, and OASIS Alzheimer's real-world data.MethodsA unified Bayesian hierarchical framework that implements and compares shrinkage priors in binary and multinomial logistic regression models is presented. The key feature is the representation of the likelihood by a Polya-Gamma data augmentation, which admits a natural integration with a family of shrinkage priors, specifically focusing on Horseshoe, Dirichlet Laplace, and Double Pareto priors. Extensive simulation studies are conducted to assess the performances under different data dimensions and parameter settings. Measures of accuracy, AUC, brier score, L1 error, cross-entropy, and ROC surface plots are used as evaluation criteria comparing the priors with frequentist methods as Lasso, Elastic-Net, and Ridge regression.ResultsAll three priors can be used for robust prediction on significant metrics, irrespective of their categorical response model choices. Simulation studies could achieve the mean prediction accuracy of 91.6% (95% CI: 88.5, 94.7) and 76.5% (95% CI: 69.3, 83.8) for logistic regression and multinomial logistic models, respectively. The model can identify significant variables for disease risk prediction and is computationally efficient.ConclusionsThe models are robust enough to conduct both variable selection and prediction because of their high shrinkage properties and applicability to a broad range of classification problems.

Dataset Information

A gentle introduction to bayesian analysis: applications to developmental research.

Publications

A gentle introduction to bayesian analysis: applications to developmental research.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets