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Early magnitude estimation for the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake using progressively expanded P-wave time window.

ABSTRACT: More and more earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are developed or currently being tested in many active seismic regions of the world. A well-known problem with real-time procedures is the parameter saturation, which may lead to magnitude underestimation for large earthquakes. In this paper, the method used to the MW9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake is explored with strong-motion records of the MW7.9, 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. We measure two early warning parameters by progressively expanding the P-wave time window (PTW) and distance range, to provide early magnitude estimates and a rapid prediction of the potential damage area. This information would have been available 40 s after the earthquake origin time and could have been refined in the successive 20 s using data from more distant stations. We show the suitability of the existing regression relationships between early warning parameters and magnitude, provided that an appropriate PTW is used for parameter estimation. The reason for the magnitude underestimation is in part a combined effect of high-pass filtering and frequency dependence of the main radiating source during the rupture process. Finally we suggest only using Pd alone for magnitude estimation because of its slight magnitude saturation compared to the τc magnitude.

SUBMITTER: Peng C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4209451 | biostudies-other | 2014

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Project description:BackgroundThe factors influencing pubertal timing have gained much attention due to a secular trend toward earlier pubertal onset in many countries. However, no studies have investigated the association between the Great earthquake and early puberty. We aimed to assess whether the Wenchuan earthquake is associated with early puberty, in both boys and girls.MethodsWe used data from two circles of a survey on reproductive health in China to explore the impact of the Wenchuan earthquake on early puberty , and a total of 9,785 adolescents (4,830 boys, 49.36%) aged 12-20 years from 29 schools in eight provinces were recruited. Wenchuan earthquake exposure was defined as those Sichuan students who had not experienced oigarche/menarche before May 12, 2008. Early puberty was identified as a reported onset of oigarche/menarche at 11 years or earlier. We tested the association between the Wenchuan earthquake and early puberty in boys and girls. Then, subgroup analysis stratified by the age at earthquake exposure also was performed.ResultsIn total, 8,883 adolescents (4,543 boys, 51.14%) with a mean (SD) age of 15.13 (1.81) were included in the final sample. In general, children exposed to the earthquake had three times greater risk of early puberty (boys, RR [95% CI] = 3.18 [2.21-4.57]; girls: RR [95%CI] =3.16 [2.65-3.78]). Subgroup analysis showed that the adjusted RR was 1.90 [1.19-3.03] for boys and 2.22 [1.75-2.80] for girls. Earthquake exposure predicted almost a fourfold (RR [95%CI] = 3.91 [1.31-11.72]) increased risk of early puberty in preschool girls, whereas the increase was about twofold (RR [95%CI] = 2.09 [1.65-2.64]) in schoolgirls. Among boys, only older age at earthquake exposure was linked to early puberty (RR [95%CI] = 1.93 [1.18-3.16]).ConclusionsWenchuan earthquake exposure increased the risk of early puberty in boys and girls, and preschoolers were more at risk than schoolchildren. The implications are relevant to support policies for those survivors, especially children, to better rebuild after disasters.

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Early magnitude estimation for the MW7.9 Wenchuan earthquake using progressively expanded P-wave time window.

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