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Estimated number of infants detected and missed by critical congenital heart defect screening.

ABSTRACT: In 2011, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services recommended universal screening of newborns for critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs), yet few estimates of the number of infants with CCHDs likely to be detected through universal screening exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs in the United States likely to be detected (true positives) and missed (false negatives) through universal newborn CCHD screening.We developed a simulation model based on estimates of birth prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, late detection, and sensitivity of newborn CCHD screening through pulse oximetry to estimate the number of true-positive and false-negative nonsyndromic cases of the 7 primary and 5 secondary CCHD screening targets identified through screening.We estimated that 875 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 705-1060) US infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs, including 470 (95% UI: 360-585) infants with primary CCHD screening targets, will be detected annually through newborn CCHD screening. An additional 880 (UI: 700-1080) false-negative screenings, including 280 (95% UI: 195-385) among primary screening targets, are expected. We estimated that similar numbers of CCHDs would be detected under scenarios comparing "lower" (?19%) and "higher" (?41%) than current prenatal detection prevalences.A substantial number of nonsyndromic CCHD cases are likely to be detected through universal CCHD screening; however, an equal number of false-negative screenings, primarily among secondary targets of screening, are likely to occur. Future efforts should document the true impact of CCHD screening in practice.

SUBMITTER: Ailes EC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4470502 | biostudies-other | 2015 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Estimated number of infants detected and missed by critical congenital heart defect screening.

Ailes Elizabeth C EC Gilboa Suzanne M SM Honein Margaret A MA Oster Matthew E ME

Pediatrics 20150511 6

<h4>Background and objectives</h4>In 2011, the US Secretary of Health and Human Services recommended universal screening of newborns for critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs), yet few estimates of the number of infants with CCHDs likely to be detected through universal screening exist. Our objective was to estimate the number of infants with nonsyndromic CCHDs in the United States likely to be detected (true positives) and missed (false negatives) through universal newborn CCHD screening.<h4 ...[more]

PMID: 25963011

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Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate perinatal outcomes and congenital heart defect (CHD) prognosis in a non-selected population.MethodsThe population-based surveillance data used in this assessment of CHDs were based on birth defect surveillance data collected from 2010-2012 in Liuyang City, China. Infants living with CHDs were followed up for 5 years to determine their prognosis. Prevalence, prenatal diagnosis, perinatal outcomes, and total and type-specific prognosis data were assessed using SPSS 18.0.ResultsIn total, 190 CHD cases were identified among the 53313 included perinatal infants (PIs), indicating a CHD prevalence of 35.64 per 10000 PIs in this non-selected population. The five most frequently identified types of CHDs were ventricular septal defects (VSDs, 38.95%), atrial septal defects (ASDs, 15.79%), cardiomegaly (7.89%), tetralogy of Fallot (TOF, 5.79%), and atrioventricular septal defects (AVSDs, 5.26%). Of the 190 CHD cases, 110 (57.89%) were diagnosed prenatally, 30 (15.79%) were diagnosed with associated malformations, and 69 (36.32%) resulted in termination of pregnancy (TOP). Moreover, 15 (7.89%) PIs died within 7 days after delivery, and 42 (22.10%) died within 1 year. In contrast, 79 (41.58%) were still alive after 5 years. When TOP cases were included, the 5-year survival rate of PIs with prenatally detected CHDs was lower than that of PIs with postnatally detected CHDs (25.45% vs. 63.75%). The CHD subtype associated with the highest rate of infant (less than 1 year old) mortality was transposition of the great arteries (100%). The subtypes associated with higher 5-year survival rates were patent ductus arteriosus (80%), ASD (63.33%), VSD (52.70%) and AVSD (50%).ConclusionsThe rates of prenatal CHD detection and TOP were high in this study population, and the 5-year survival rate of PIs with CHDs was low. The government should strengthen efforts to educate pediatricians regarding this issue and provide financial assistance to improve the prognosis of infants living with CHDs, especially during the first year of life.

Project description:Critical congenital heart disease (CCHD) was added to the Recommended Uniform Screening Panel for Newborns in the United States in 2011. Many states have recently adopted or are considering requirements for universal CCHD screening through pulse oximetry in birth hospitals. Limited previous research is directly applicable to the question of how many US infants with CCHD might be identified through screening.To estimate the proportion of US infants with late detection of CCHD (>3 days after birth) based on existing clinical practice and to investigate factors associated with late detection.Descriptive and multivariable analysis. Data were obtained from a multisite population-based study of birth defects in the United States, the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS). We included all live-born infants with estimated dates of delivery from January 1, 1998, through December 31, 2007, and nonsyndromic, clinically verified CCHD conditions potentially detectable through screening via pulse oximetry.The main outcome measure was the proportion of infants with late detection of CCHD through echocardiography or at autopsy under the assumption that universal screening at birth hospitals might reduce the number of such late diagnoses. Secondary outcome measures included prevalence ratios for associations between selected demographic and clinical factors and late detection of CCHD.Of 3746 live-born infants with nonsyndromic CCHD, late detection occurred in 1106 (29.5% [95% CI, 28.1%-31.0%]), including 6 (0.2%) (0.1%-0.4%) first receiving a diagnosis at autopsy more than 3 days after birth. Late detection varied by CCHD type from 9 of 120 infants (7.5% [95% CI, 3.5%-13.8%]) with pulmonary atresia to 497 of 801 (62.0% [58.7%-65.4%]) with coarctation of the aorta. In multivariable analysis, late detection varied significantly by CCHD type and study site, and infants with extracardiac defects were significantly less likely to have late detection of CCHD (adjusted prevalence ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.49-0.69]).We estimate that 29.5% of live-born infants with nonsyndromic CCHD in the NBDPS received a diagnosis more than 3 days after birth and therefore might have benefited from routine CCHD screening at birth hospitals. The number of infants in whom CCHD was detected through screening likely varies by several factors, including CCHD type. Additional population-based studies of screening in practice are needed.

Project description:ImportancePrenatal cardiac screening of the first and second trimesters has had a major impact on postnatal prevalence of congenital heart defects (CHDs), rates of termination of pregnancy (TOP), and outcomes among children born alive with CHDs.ObjectiveTo examine the prenatal and postnatal incidence of major CHDs (ie, necessitating intervention within the first year of life), detection rate trends, rates of TOP, and the association of cardiac screening with postnatal outcomes.Design, settings, and participantsIn this cross-sectional study, 3827 fetuses with antenatally diagnosed major CHDs in the Czech Republic (population 10.7 million) between 1991 and 2021 were prospectively evaluated with known outcomes and associated comorbidities. Prenatal and postnatal prevalence of CHD in an unselected population was assessed by comparison with a retrospective analysis of all children born alive with major CHDs in the same period (5454 children), using national data registry. Data analysis was conducted from January 1991 to December 2021.Main outcomes and measuresPrenatal detection and postnatal prevalence of major CHDs and rate of TOPs in a setting with a centralized health care system over 31 years.ResultsA total of 3 300 068 children were born alive during the study period. Major CHD was diagnosed in 3827 fetuses, of whom 1646 (43.0%) were born, 2069 (54.1%) resulted in TOP, and 112 (2.9%) died prenatally. The prenatal detection rate increased from 6.2% in 1991 to 82.8% in 2021 (P < .001). Termination of pregnancy decreased from 70% in 1991 to 43% (P < .001) in 2021. Of 627 fetuses diagnosed in the first trimester (introduced in 2007), 460 were terminated (73.3%). Since 2007, of 2066 fetuses diagnosed in the second trimester, 880 (42.6%) were terminated, resulting in an odds ratio of 3.6 (95% CI, 2.8-4.6; P < .001) for TOP in the first trimester compared with the second trimester. Postnatal prevalence of major CHDs declined from 0.21% to 0.14% (P < .001). The total incidence (combining prenatal detection of terminated fetuses with postnatal prevalence) of major CHD remained at 0.23% during the study period.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, the total incidence of major CHD did not change significantly during the 31-year study period. The prenatal detection of major CHD approached 83% in the current era. Postnatal prevalence of major CHD decreased significantly due to early TOPs and intrauterine deaths. The introduction of first trimester screening resulted in a higher termination rate in the first trimester but did not revert the overall decreasing trend of termination for CHDs in general.

Dataset Information

Estimated number of infants detected and missed by critical congenital heart defect screening.

Publications

Estimated number of infants detected and missed by critical congenital heart defect screening.

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