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Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination.

ABSTRACT: Herpes zoster arises from reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus (VZV), causing varicella in children. As reactivation occurs when cell-mediated immunity (CMI) declines, and there is evidence that re-exposure to VZV boosts CMI, mass varicella immunization might increase the zoster burden, at least for some decades. Fear of this natural zoster boom is the main reason for the paralysis of varicella immunization in Europe. We apply optimal control to a realistically parametrized age-structured model for VZV transmission and reactivation to investigate whether feasible varicella immunization paths that are optimal in controlling both varicella and zoster exist. We analyse the optimality system numerically focusing on the role of the cost functional, of the relative zoster-varicella cost and of the planning horizon length. We show that optimal programmes will mostly be unfeasible for public health owing to their complex temporal profiles. This complexity is the consequence of the intrinsically antagonistic nature of varicella immunization programmes when aiming to control both varicella and zoster. However, we show that gradually increasing-hence feasible-vaccination schedules can perform better than routine programmes with constant vaccine uptake. Finally, we show the optimal profiles of feasible programmes targeting mitigation of the post-immunization natural zoster boom with priority.

SUBMITTER: Betta M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4810870 | biostudies-other | 2016 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination.

Betta Monica M Laurino Marco M Pugliese Andrea A Guzzetta Giorgio G Landi Alberto A Manfredi Piero P

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20160301 1826

Herpes zoster arises from reactivation of the varicella-zoster virus (VZV), causing varicella in children. As reactivation occurs when cell-mediated immunity (CMI) declines, and there is evidence that re-exposure to VZV boosts CMI, mass varicella immunization might increase the zoster burden, at least for some decades. Fear of this natural zoster boom is the main reason for the paralysis of varicella immunization in Europe. We apply optimal control to a realistically parametrized age-structured ...[more]

PMID: 26984627

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Project description:BackgroundVaricella zoster virus (VZV) is one of the eight known human herpesviruses. Initial VZV infection results in chickenpox, while viral reactivation following a period of latency manifests as shingles. Separate vaccines exist to protect against both initial infection and subsequent reactivation. Controversy regarding chickenpox vaccination is contentious with most countries not including the vaccine in their childhood immunization schedule due to the hypothesized negative impact on immune-boosting, where VZV reactivation is suppressed through exogenous boosting of VZV antibodies from exposure to natural chickenpox infections.MethodsPopulation-level chickenpox and shingles notifications from Thailand, a country that does not vaccinate against either disease, were previously fitted with mathematical models to estimate rates of VZV transmission and reactivation. Here, multiple chickenpox and shingles vaccination scenarios were simulated and compared to a model lacking any vaccination to analyze the long-term impacts of VZV vaccination.ResultsAs expected, simulations suggested that an introduction of the chickenpox vaccine, at any coverage level, would reduce chickenpox incidence. However, chickenpox vaccine coverage levels above 35% would increase shingles incidence under realistic estimates of shingles coverage with the current length of protective immunity from the vaccine. A trade-off between chickenpox and shingles vaccination coverage was discovered, where mid-level chickenpox coverage levels were identified as the optimal target to minimize total zoster burden. Only in scenarios where shingles vaccine provided lifelong immunity or coverage exceeded current levels could large reductions in both chickenpox and shingles be achieved.ConclusionsThe complicated nature of VZV makes it impossible to select a single vaccination scenario as universal policy. Strategies focused on reducing both chickenpox and shingles incidence, but prioritizing the latter should maximize efforts towards shingles vaccination, while slowly incorporating chickenpox vaccination. Alternatively, countries may wish to minimize VZV complications of both chickenpox and shingles, which would lead to maximizing vaccine coverage levels across both diseases. Balancing the consequences of vaccination to overall health impacts, including understanding the impact of an altered mean age of infection for both chickenpox and shingles, would need to be considered prior to any vaccine introduction.

Project description:BackgroundA controversy exists about the potential effect of childhood varicella vaccination on Herpes Zoster (HZ) incidence. Mathematical models projected temporary HZ incidence increase after vaccine introduction that was not confirmed by real-world evidence. These models assume that absence of contacts with infected children would prevent exogenous boosting of Varicella-Zoster-Virus (VZV) immunity and they do not include an endogenous VZV immunity-boosting mechanism following asymptomatic VZV reactivation. This study aims to explore the effect of various assumptions on exogenous and endogenous VZV immunity-boosting on HZ incidence in the general population after introduction of routine childhood varicella vaccination.MethodsAn age-structured dynamic transmission model was adapted and fitted to the seroprevalence of varicella in France in absence of vaccination using the empirical contact matrix. A two-dose childhood varicella vaccination schedule was introduced at 12 and 18 months. Vaccine efficacy was assumed at 65%/95% (dose 1/dose 2), and coverage at 90%/80% (dose 1/dose 2). Exogenous boosting intensity was based on assumptions regarding HZ-immunity duration, age-dependent boosting effect, and HZ reactivation rates fitted to observed HZ incidence. Endogenous boosting was the same as pre-vaccination exogenous boosting but constant over time, whilst exogenous boosting depended on the force of infection. Five scenarios were tested with different weightings of exogenous (Exo) - endogenous (Endo) boosting: 100%Exo-0%Endo, 75%Exo-25%Endo, 50%Exo-50%Endo, 25%Exo-75%Endo, 0%Exo-100%Endo.ResultsHZ incidence before varicella vaccination, all ages combined, was estimated at 3.96 per 1000 person-years; it decreased by 64% by year 80 post vaccine introduction, for all boosting assumptions. The 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting scenario, predicted an increase in HZ incidence for the first 21 years post vaccine introduction with a maximum increase of 3.7% (4.1/1000) at year 9. However, with 0%Exo-100%Endo boosting scenario an immediate HZ decline was projected. The maximum HZ incidence increases at 10, 3, and 2 years post vaccination were 1.8% (75%Exo-25%Endo), 0.8% (50%Exo-50%Endo) and 0.2% (25%Exo-75%Endo), respectively.ConclusionsAssuming modest levels of endogenous boosting, the increase in HZ incidence following childhood varicella vaccination was smaller and lasted for a shorter period compared with 100%Exo-0%Endo boosting assumption. Endogenous boosting mechanism could partly explain the divergence between previous HZ-incidence projections and real-world evidence.

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Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination.

Publications

Perspectives on optimal control of varicella and herpes zoster by mass routine varicella vaccination.

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