Browse
Submit Data
Databases
API
Help

Dataset Information

0 Views

0 Connections

0 Citations

0 Reanalyses

0 Downloads

Omics score: 0

Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake.

ABSTRACT: As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physical state of the ocean can be predicted several years in advance by initialization of Earth system models, predictability of CO2 uptake has remained unexplored. Here we investigate the predictability of CO2 uptake variations by initialization of the MPI-ESM decadal prediction system. We find large multi-year variability in oceanic CO2 uptake and demonstrate that its potential predictive skill in the western subpolar gyre region is up to 4-7 years. The predictive skill is mainly maintained in winter and is attributed to the improved physical state of the ocean.

SUBMITTER: Li H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4820896 | biostudies-other | 2016

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Json Xml

Publications

Decadal predictions of the North Atlantic CO2 uptake.

Li Hongmei H Ilyina Tatiana T Müller Wolfgang A WA Sienz Frank F

Nature communications 20160330

As a major CO2 sink, the North Atlantic, especially its subpolar gyre region, is essential for the global carbon cycle. Decadal fluctuations of CO2 uptake in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region are associated with the evolution of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, ocean mixing and sea surface temperature anomalies. While variations in the physical state of the ocean can be predicted several years in advance by initialization of Earth system mode ...[more]

PMID: 27026490

Similar Datasets

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions.

Project description:The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiannual skill in key metrics such as Labrador Sea density and the AMOC depends on more than simply the choice of the prediction model. Instead, this skill is related to the similarity between the nature of interannual density variability in the underlying climate model and the chosen reanalysis. The climate models used in these decadal predictions are also used in climate projections, which raises questions about the sensitivity of these projections to the models' innate North Atlantic density variability.

| S-EPMC5923258 | biostudies-literature

Solar forcing synchronizes decadal North Atlantic climate variability.

Project description:Quasi-decadal variability in solar irradiance has been suggested to exert a substantial effect on Earth's regional climate. In the North Atlantic sector, the 11-year solar signal has been proposed to project onto a pattern resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a lag of a few years due to ocean-atmosphere interactions. The solar/NAO relationship is, however, highly misrepresented in climate model simulations with realistic observed forcings. In addition, its detection is particularly complicated since NAO quasi-decadal fluctuations can be intrinsically generated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. Here we compare two multi-decadal ocean-atmosphere chemistry-climate simulations with and without solar forcing variability. While the experiment including solar variability simulates a 1-2-year lagged solar/NAO relationship, comparison of both experiments suggests that the 11-year solar cycle synchronizes quasi-decadal NAO variability intrinsic to the model. The synchronization is consistent with the downward propagation of the solar signal from the stratosphere to the surface.

| S-EPMC4579852 | biostudies-literature

North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Decadal Sea Level Change During the Altimetry Era.

Project description:Regional sea-level rise is characterized by decadal acceleration and deceleration periods that typically stem from oceanic climate variability. Here, we investigate decadal sea-level trends during the altimetry era and pin down the associated ocean circulation changes. We find that decadal subpolar gyre cooling (warming), strengthening (weakening), widening (shrinking) since the mid-2000s (early 1990s) resulted in negative (positive) sea level trends of -7.1?mm/yr?±?1.3?mm/yr (3.9?mm/yr?±?1.5?mm/yr). These large-scale changes further coincide with steric sea-level trends, and are driven by decadal-scale ocean circulation variability. Sea level on the European shelf, however, is found to correlate well with along-slope winds (R?=?0.78), suggesting it plays a central role in driving the associated low-frequency dynamic sea level variability. Furthermore, when the North Atlantic is in a cooling (warming) period, the winds along the eastern boundary are predominantly from the North (South), which jointly drive a slowdown (rapid increase) in shelf and coastal sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms that produce these connections may be critical for interpreting future regional sea-level trends.

| S-EPMC6355806 | biostudies-other

Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation covaries with Agulhas leakage.

Project description:The interoceanic transfer of seawater between the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic, 'Agulhas leakage', forms a choke point for the overturning circulation in the global ocean. Here, by combining output from a series of high-resolution ocean and climate models with in situ and satellite observations, we construct a time series of Agulhas leakage for the period 1870-2014. The time series demonstrates the impact of Southern Hemisphere westerlies on decadal timescales. Agulhas leakage shows a correlation with the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation on multi-decadal timescales; the former leading by 15 years. This is relevant for climate in the North Atlantic.

| S-EPMC4682045 | biostudies-literature

Decadal oscillation provides skillful multiyear predictions of Antarctic sea ice.

Project description:Over the satellite era, Antarctic sea ice exhibited an overall long-term increasing trend, contrary to the Arctic reduction under global warming. However, the drastic decline of Antarctic sea ice in 2014-2018 raises questions about its interannual and decadal-scale variabilities, which are poorly understood and predicted. Here, we identify an Antarctic sea ice decadal oscillation, exhibiting a quasi-period of 8-16 years, that is anticorrelated with the Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation (r = -0.90). By combining observations, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project historical simulations, and pacemaker climate model experiments, we find evidence that the synchrony between the sea ice decadal oscillation and Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation is linked to atmospheric poleward-propagating Rossby wave trains excited by heating in the central tropical Pacific. These waves weaken the Amundsen Sea Low, melting sea ice due to enhanced shortwave radiation and warm advection. A Pacific Quasi-Decadal Oscillation-based regression model shows that this tropical-polar teleconnection carries multi-year predictability.

| S-EPMC10719290 | biostudies-literature

Decadal acidification in the water masses of the Atlantic Ocean.

Project description:Global ocean acidification is caused primarily by the ocean's uptake of CO2 as a consequence of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. We present observations of the oceanic decrease in pH at the basin scale (50 °S-36 °N) for the Atlantic Ocean over two decades (1993-2013). Changes in pH associated with the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 (ΔpHCant) and with variations caused by biological activity and ocean circulation (ΔpHNat) are evaluated for different water masses. Output from an Institut Pierre Simon Laplace climate model is used to place the results into a longer-term perspective and to elucidate the mechanisms responsible for pH change. The largest decreases in pH (∆pH) were observed in central, mode, and intermediate waters, with a maximum ΔpH value in South Atlantic Central Waters of -0.042 ± 0.003. The ΔpH trended toward zero in deep and bottom waters. Observations and model results show that pH changes generally are dominated by the anthropogenic component, which accounts for rates between -0.0015 and -0.0020/y in the central waters. The anthropogenic and natural components are of the same order of magnitude and reinforce one another in mode and intermediate waters over the time period. Large negative ΔpHNat values observed in mode and intermediate waters are driven primarily by changes in CO2 content and are consistent with (i) a poleward shift of the formation region during the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode in the South Atlantic and (ii) an increase in the rate of the water mass formation in the North Atlantic.

| S-EPMC4538673 | biostudies-literature

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

Project description:Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

| S-EPMC5046986 | biostudies-literature

An estimate of anthropogenic CO2 inventory from decadal changes in oceanic carbon content.

Project description:Increased knowledge of the present global carbon cycle is important for our ability to understand and to predict the future carbon cycle and global climate. Approximately half of the anthropogenic carbon released to the atmosphere from fossil fuel burning is stored in the ocean, although distribution and regional fluxes of the ocean sink are debated. Estimates of anthropogenic carbon (C(ant)) in the oceans remain prone to error arising from (i) a need to estimate preindustrial reference concentrations of carbon for different oceanic regions, and (ii) differing behavior of transient ocean tracers used to infer C(ant). We introduce an empirical approach to estimate C(ant) that circumvents both problems by using measurement of the decadal change of ocean carbon concentrations and the exponential nature of the atmospheric C(ant) increase. In contrast to prior approaches, the results are independent of tracer data but are shown to be qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with tracer-derived estimates. The approach reveals more C(ant) in the deep ocean than prior studies; with possible implications for future carbon uptake and deep ocean carbonate dissolution. Our results suggest that this approachs applied on the unprecedented global data archive provides a means of estimating the C(ant) for large parts of the world's ocean.

| S-EPMC1802019 | biostudies-literature

Role of subsurface ocean in decadal climate predictability over the South Atlantic.

Project description:Decadal climate predictability in the South Atlantic is explored by performing reforecast experiments using a coupled general circulation model with two initialization schemes; one is assimilated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) only, and the other is additionally assimilated with observed subsurface ocean temperature and salinity. The South Atlantic is known to undergo decadal variability exhibiting a meridional dipole of SST anomalies through variations in the subtropical high and ocean heat transport. Decadal reforecast experiments in which only the model SST is initialized with the observation do not predict well the observed decadal SST variability in the South Atlantic, while the other experiments in which the model SST and subsurface ocean are initialized with the observation skillfully predict the observed decadal SST variability, particularly in the Southeast Atlantic. In-depth analysis of upper-ocean heat content reveals that a significant improvement of zonal heat transport in the Southeast Atlantic leads to skillful prediction of decadal SST variability there. These results demonstrate potential roles of subsurface ocean assimilation in the skillful prediction of decadal climate variability over the South Atlantic.

| S-EPMC5986776 | biostudies-literature

Comparable light stimulation of organic nutrient uptake by SAR11 and Prochlorococcus in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre.

Project description:Subtropical oceanic gyres are the most extensive biomes on Earth where SAR11 and Prochlorococcus bacterioplankton numerically dominate the surface waters depleted in inorganic macronutrients as well as in dissolved organic matter. In such nutrient poor conditions bacterioplankton could become photoheterotrophic, that is, potentially enhance uptake of scarce organic molecules using the available solar radiation to energise appropriate transport systems. Here, we assessed the photoheterotrophy of the key microbial taxa in the North Atlantic oligotrophic gyre and adjacent regions using (33)P-ATP, (3)H-ATP and (35)S-methionine tracers. Light-stimulated uptake of these substrates was assessed in two dominant bacterioplankton groups discriminated by flow cytometric sorting of tracer-labelled cells and identified using catalysed reporter deposition fluorescence in situ hybridisation. One group of cells, encompassing 48% of all bacterioplankton, were identified as members of the SAR11 clade, whereas the other group (24% of all bacterioplankton) was Prochlorococcus. When exposed to light, SAR11 cells took 31% more ATP and 32% more methionine, whereas the Prochlorococcus cells took 33% more ATP and 34% more methionine. Other bacterioplankton did not demonstrate light stimulation. Thus, the SAR11 and Prochlorococcus groups, with distinctly different light-harvesting mechanisms, used light equally to enhance, by approximately one-third, the uptake of different types of organic molecules. Our findings indicate the significance of light-driven uptake of essential organic nutrients by the dominant bacterioplankton groups in the surface waters of one of the less productive, vast regions of the world's oceans-the oligotrophic North Atlantic subtropical gyre.

| S-EPMC3580278 | biostudies-literature

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

OmicsDI is an Elixir interoperability service. Learn more ›

Tweets

OmicsDI Databases

PRIDE
PeptideAtlas
MassIVE
JPOST Repository
Physiome Model Repository

EGA
EVA
ENA
LINCS
PAXDB
Cell Collective

MetaboLights
Metabolomics Workbench
MetabolomeExpress
GNPS
BioModels
FAIRDOMHub

ArrayExpress
dbGaP
ExpressionAtlas
GEO
NODE

Information

Databases
Help
API
Contact us
Code on GitHub
Terms of use
Submit Data