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Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:To review studies developing or validating a prognostic model for individual venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. Prediction of recurrence risk is crucial to informing patient prognosis and treatment decisions. The review aims to determine whether reliable prognostic models exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field. DESIGN:Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) were searched using index terms relating to the clinical field and prognosis. Screening of titles, abstracts and subsequently full texts was conducted by 2 reviewers independently using predefined criteria. Quality assessment and critical appraisal of included full texts was based on an early version of the PROBAST (Prediction study Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool) for risk of bias and applicability in prognostic model studies. SETTING:Studies in any setting were included. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES:The primary outcome for the review was the predictive accuracy of identified prognostic models in relation to VTE recurrence risk. RESULTS:3 unique prognostic models were identified including the HERDOO2 score, Vienna prediction model and DASH score. Quality assessment highlighted the Vienna, and DASH models were developed with generally strong methodology, but the HERDOO2 model had many methodological concerns. Further, all models were considered at least at moderate risk of bias, primarily due to the need for further external validation before use in practice. CONCLUSIONS:Although the Vienna model shows the most promise (based on strong development methodology, applicability and having some external validation), none of the models can be considered ready for use until further, external and robust validation is performed in new data. Any new models should consider the inclusion of predictors found to be consistently important in existing models (sex, site of index event, D-dimer), and take heed of several methodological issues identified through this review. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER:CRD42013003494.

SUBMITTER: Ensor J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC4861103 | biostudies-other | 2016 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE.

Ensor Joie J Riley Richard D RD Moore David D Snell Kym I E KI Bayliss Susan S Fitzmaurice David D

BMJ open 20160506 5

<h4>Objectives</h4>To review studies developing or validating a prognostic model for individual venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence risk following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. Prediction of recurrence risk is crucial to informing patient prognosis and treatment decisions. The review aims to determine whether reliable prognostic models exist and, if not, what further research is needed within the field.<h4>Design</h4>Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and t ...[more]

PMID: 27154483

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Project description:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a chronic disease, with fatal recurrences occurring in 5% to 9% of patients, yet it is also one of the best examples of preventable disease. Prognostic models that utilise multiple prognostic factors (demographic, clinical and laboratory patient characteristics) in combination to predict individual outcome risk may allow the identification of patients who would benefit from long-term anticoagulation therapy, and conversely those that would benefit from stopping such therapy due to a low risk of recurrence. The study will systematically review the evidence on potential prognostic models for the recurrence of VTE or adverse outcomes following the cessation of therapy, and synthesise and summarise each model's prognostic value. The review has been registered with PROSPERO (CRD42013003494).Articles will be sought from the Cochrane library (CENTRAL, CDSR, DARE, HTA databases), MEDLINE and EMBASE. Trial registers will be searched for ongoing studies, and conference abstracts will be sought. Reference lists and subject experts will be utilised. No restrictions on language of publications will be applied. Studies of any design will be included if they examine, in patients ceasing therapy after at least three months' treatment with an oral anticoagulant therapy, whether more than one factor in combination is associated with the risk of VTE recurrence or another adverse outcome. Study quality will be assessed using appropriate guidelines for prognostic models. Prognostic models will be summarised qualitatively and, if tested in multiple validation studies, their predictive performance will be summarised using a random-effects meta-analysis model to account for any between-study heterogeneity.The results of the review will identify prognostic models for the risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following cessation of therapy for a first unprovoked VTE. These will be informative for clinicians currently treating patients for a first unprovoked VTE and considering whether to stop treatment or not for particular individuals. The conclusions of the review will also inform the potential development of new prognostic models and clinical prediction rules to identify those at high or low risk of VTE recurrence or adverse outcome following a first unprovoked VTE.

Project description:ObjectivesTo determine the rate of a first recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) event after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE, and the cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE up to 10 years.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis.Data sourcesMedline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (from inception to 15 March 2019).Study selectionRandomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies reporting symptomatic recurrent VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment in patients with a first unprovoked VTE event who had completed at least three months of treatment.Data extraction and synthesisTwo investigators independently screened studies, extracted data, and appraised risk of bias. Data clarifications were sought from authors of eligible studies. Recurrent VTE events and person years of follow-up after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment were used to calculate rates for individual studies, and data were pooled using random effects meta-analysis. Sex and site of initial VTE were investigated as potential sources of between study heterogeneity.Results18 studies involving 7515 patients were included in the analysis. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment was 10.3 events (95% confidence interval 8.6 to 12.1) in the first year, 6.3 (5.1 to 7.7) in the second year, 3.8 events/year (95% confidence interval 3.2 to 4.5) in years 3-5, and 3.1 events/year (1.7 to 4.9) in years 6-10. The cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE was 16% (95% confidence interval 13% to 19%) at 2 years, 25% (21% to 29%) at 5 years, and 36% (28% to 45%) at 10 years. The pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years in the first year was 11.9 events (9.6 to 14.4) for men and 8.9 events (6.8 to 11.3) for women, with a cumulative incidence for recurrent VTE of 41% (28% to 56%) and 29% (20% to 38%), respectively, at 10 years. Compared to patients with isolated pulmonary embolism, the rate of recurrent VTE was higher in patients with proximal deep vein thrombosis (rate ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1 to 1.7) and in patients with pulmonary embolism plus deep vein thrombosis (1.5, 1.1 to 1.9). In patients with distal deep vein thrombosis, the pooled rate of recurrent VTE per 100 person years was 1.9 events (95% confidence interval 0.5 to 4.3) in the first year after anticoagulation had stopped. The case fatality rate for recurrent VTE was 4% (95% confidence interval 2% to 6%).ConclusionsIn patients with a first episode of unprovoked VTE who completed at least three months of anticoagulant treatment, the risk of recurrent VTE was 10% in the first year after treatment, 16% at two years, 25% at five years, and 36% at 10 years, with 4% of recurrent VTE events resulting in death. These estimates should inform clinical practice guidelines, enhance confidence in counselling patients of their prognosis, and help guide decision making about long term management of unprovoked VTE.Systematic review registrationPROSPERO CRD42017056309.

Project description:Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a major disease associated with short-term and long-term morbidity and mortality. Patients with a VTE provoked by surgery or immobilisation are at low risk of recurrence and do not require long-term anticoagulation; those with a VTE and metastatic cancer are at high risk of recurrence and require lifetime thromboprophylaxis. In those at intermediate risk of recurrence, it remains controversial whether prolonging anticoagulation and thus incurring treatment burden and bleeding risk is warranted.We will conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials enrolling patients with VTE at intermediate risk of recurrence and evaluating short-term anticoagulation (12?weeks to 9?months initial therapy) versus longer term anticoagulation (at least 6?months additional anticoagulation beyond the course of treatment in the shorter arm). Anticoagulation could consist of vitamin K antagonists or new oral anticoagulants. Outcomes of interest include recurrent non-fatal thrombosis (deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism), major non-fatal bleeding and mortality. We will systematically search CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE and the Cochrane Central Registry of Controlled Trials. Teams of two reviewers will, independently and in duplicate, screen titles and abstracts and complete full text reviews to determine eligibility, and subsequently abstract data and assess risk of bias in eligible trials. We will conduct meta-analyses to establish the effect of short-term versus long-term anticoagulation on the outcomes of interest and evaluate confidence in estimates (quality of evidence) using the GRADE (grading of recommendations, assessment, development and evaluation) approach.Our review will facilitate evidence-based management of patients with unprovoked or recurrent VTE. For purposes of privacy and confidentiality, the systematic review will be limited to studies with deidentified data. The study will be disseminated by peer-review publication and conference presentation.PROSPERO (CRD42014007620).

Project description:Background: Patients with venous thromboembolism have high risk of recurrence after discontinuation of anticoagulant treatment. Extended anticoagulation, such as traditional anticoagulants, can reduce the risk of recurrence but is associated with increased risk of hemorrhage. Sulodexide is a natural glycosaminoglycan mixture which can prevent recurrent venous thromboembolism. However, its clinical efficiency and safety still remain controversial. Methods: A systematic search in Medline, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, Web of Science and bibliographies of retrieved articles was performed. Prospective controlled studies reporting the efficacy and safety of sulodexide on the secondary prevention of recurrent venous thromboembolism were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the following data: first author, year of publication, study design, characteristics of patients, data of interventions, doses of sulodexide, overall duration of drug administration, time of follow-up, efficacy and safety outcomes, adverse effects, and the quality of the included studies. The primary efficacy outcomes were recurrent deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism. The secondary efficacy outcomes included distal or superficial vein thrombosis and nonfatal or fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and acute ischemia of the lower limbs. Safety outcome was possible hemorrhagic episodes. Results: Four studies involving 1,461 patients were enrolled in this study. Meta-analysis showed that sulodexide significantly reduced the recurrent venous thromboembolism [RR 0.51, 95 % CI [0.35, 0.74], P = 0.0004] and superficial vein thrombosis in the sulodexide group [RR 0.41, 95% CI [0.22, 0.76], P = 0.005]. The safety of sulodexide was also reliable. The rate of bleeding was 0.28% in the sulodexide group and 1.60% in the control group, and design of study did not influence these results. Conclusions: Sulodexide could significantly reduce the recurrence of VTE after discontinuation of anticoagulation treatment as compared with placebo.

Project description:IntroductionHospital-acquired thrombosis accounts for a large proportion of all venous thromboembolism (VTE), with significant morbidity and mortality. This subset of VTE can be reduced through accurate risk assessment and tailored pharmacological thromboprophylaxis. This systematic review aimed to determine the comparative accuracy of risk assessment models (RAMs) for predicting VTE in patients admitted to hospital.MethodsA systematic search was performed across five electronic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) from inception to February 2021. All primary validation studies were eligible if they examined the accuracy of a multivariable RAM (or scoring system) for predicting the risk of developing VTE in hospitalised inpatients. Two or more reviewers independently undertook study selection, data extraction and risk of bias assessments using the PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) tool. We used narrative synthesis to summarise the findings.ResultsAmong 6355 records, we included 51 studies, comprising 24 unique validated RAMs. The majority of studies included hospital inpatients who required medical care (21 studies), were undergoing surgery (15 studies) or receiving care for trauma (4 studies). The most widely evaluated RAMs were the Caprini RAM (22 studies), Padua prediction score (16 studies), IMPROVE models (8 studies), the Geneva risk score (4 studies) and the Kucher score (4 studies). C-statistics varied markedly between studies and between models, with no one RAM performing obviously better than other models. Across all models, C-statistics were often weak (<0.7), sometimes good (0.7-0.8) and a few were excellent (>0.8). Similarly, estimates for sensitivity and specificity were highly variable. Sensitivity estimates ranged from 12.0% to 100% and specificity estimates ranged from 7.2% to 100%.ConclusionAvailable data suggest that RAMs have generally weak predictive accuracy for VTE. There is insufficient evidence and too much heterogeneity to recommend the use of any particular RAM.Prospero registration numberSteve Goodacre, Abdullah Pandor, Katie Sworn, Daniel Horner, Mark Clowes. A systematic review of venous thromboembolism RAMs for hospital inpatients. PROSPERO 2020 CRD42020165778. Available from https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=165778https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=165778.

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Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE.

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Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE.

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