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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.

ABSTRACT: The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

SUBMITTER: Samy AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5027865 | biostudies-other | 2016 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.

Samy Abdallah M AM Thomas Stephanie M SM Wahed Ahmed Abd El AA Cohoon Kevin P KP Peterson A Townsend AT

Memorias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 20160901 9

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than rand ...[more]

PMID: 27653360

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Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged as a global epidemic in 2015-2016 from Latin America with its true geographical extent remaining unclear due to widely presumed underreporting. The identification of locations with potential and unknown spread of ZIKV is a key yet understudied component for outbreak preparedness. Here, we aim to identify locations at a high risk of cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016 to further the understanding of the global ZIKV epidemiology, which is critical for the mitigation of the risk of future epidemics.MethodsWe developed an importation simulation model to estimate the weekly number of ZIKV infections imported in each susceptible spatial unit (i.e. location that did not report any autochthonous Zika cases during 2015-2016), integrating epidemiological, demographic, and travel data as model inputs. Thereafter, a global risk model was applied to estimate the weekly ZIKV transmissibility during 2015-2016 for each location. Finally, we assessed the risk of onward ZIKV spread following importation in each susceptible spatial unit to identify locations with a high potential for cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016.ResultsWe have found 24 susceptible spatial units that were likely to have experienced cryptic ZIKV spread during 2015-2016, of which 10 continue to have a high risk estimate within a highly conservative scenario, namely, Luanda in Angola, Banten in Indonesia, Maharashtra in India, Lagos in Nigeria, Taiwan and Guangdong in China, Dakar in Senegal, Maputo in Mozambique, Kinshasa in Congo DRC, and Pool in Congo. Notably, among the 24 susceptible spatial units identified, some have reported their first ZIKV outbreaks since 2017, thus adding to the credibility of our results (derived using 2015-2016 data only).ConclusionOur study has provided valuable insights into the potentially high-risk locations for cryptic ZIKV circulation during the 2015-2016 pandemic and has also laid a foundation for future studies that attempt to further narrow this key knowledge gap. Our modelling framework can be adapted to identify areas with likely unknown spread of other emerging vector-borne diseases, which has important implications for public health readiness especially in resource-limited settings.

Project description:St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) is the prototypic mosquito-borne flavivirus in the Americas. Birds are its primary vertebrate hosts, but amplification in certain mammals has also been suggested. The place and time of SLEV emergence remain unknown. In an ecological investigation in a tropical rainforest in Palenque National Park, Mexico, we discovered an ancestral variant of SLEV in Culex nigripalpus mosquitoes. Those SLEV-Palenque strains form a highly distinct phylogenetic clade within the SLEV species. Cell culture studies of SLEV-Palenque versus epidemic SLEV (MSI-7) revealed no growth differences in insect cells but a clear inability of SLEV-Palenque to replicate in cells from birds, cotton rats, and free-tailed bats permissive for MSI-7 replication. Only cells from nonhuman primates and neotropical fruit bats were moderately permissive. Phylogeographic reconstruction identified the common ancestor of all epidemic SLEV strains to have existed in an area between southern Mexico and Panama ca. 330 years ago. Expansion of the epidemic lineage occurred in two waves, the first representing emergence near the area of origin and the second involving almost parallel appearances of the virus in the lower Mississippi and Amazon delta regions. Early diversification events overlapped human habitat invasion during the post-Columbian era. Several documented SLEV outbreaks, such as the 1964 Houston epidemic or the 1990 Tampa epidemic, were predated by the arrival of novel strains between 1 and 4 years before the outbreaks. Collectively, our data provide insight into the putative origins of SLEV, suggesting that virus emergence was driven by human invasion of primary rainforests. IMPORTANCE St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) is the prototypic mosquito-transmitted flavivirus of the Americas. Unlike the West Nile virus, which we know was recently introduced into North America from the Old World, the provenience of SLEV is obscure. In an ecological investigation in a primary rainforest area of Palenque National Park, Mexico, we have discovered an ancestral variant of SLEV. The ancestral virus was much less active than the epidemic virus in cell cultures, reflecting its incomplete adaptation to hosts encountered outside primary rainforests. Knowledge of this virus enabled a spatiotemporal reconstruction of the common ancestor of all SLEVs and how the virus spread from there. We can infer that the cosmopolitan SLEV lineage emerged from Central America in the 17th century, a period of post-Columbian colonial history marked by intense human invasion of primary rainforests. Further spread followed major bird migration pathways over North and South America.

Project description:BackgroundThe flaviviridae family comprises single-stranded RNA viruses that enter cells via clathrin-mediated pH-dependent endocytosis. Although the initial events of the virus entry have been already identified, data regarding intracellular virus trafficking and delivery to the replication site are limited. The purpose of this study was to map the transport route of Zika virus and to identify the fusion site within the endosomal compartment.MethodsTracking of viral particles in the cell was carried out with confocal microscopy. Immunostaining of two structural proteins of Zika virus enabled precise mapping of the route of the ribonucleocapsid and the envelope and, consequently, mapping the fusion site in the endosomal compartment. The results were verified using RNAi silencing and chemical inhibitors.ResultsAfter endocytic internalization, Zika virus is trafficked through the endosomal compartment to fuse in late endosomes. Inhibition of endosome acidification using bafilomycin A1 hampers the infection, as the fusion is inhibited; instead, the virus is transported to late compartments where it undergoes proteolytic degradation. The degradation products are ejected from the cell via slow recycling vesicles. Surprisingly, NH4Cl, which is also believed to block endosome acidification, shows a very different mode of action. In the presence of this basic compound, the endocytic hub is reprogrammed. Zika virus-containing vesicles never reach the late stage, but are rapidly trafficked to the plasma membrane via a fast recycling pathway after the clathrin-mediated endocytosis. Further, we also noted that, similarly as other members of the flaviviridae family, Zika virus undergoes furin- or furin-like-dependent activation during late steps of infection, while serine or cysteine proteases are not required for Zika virus maturation or entry.ConclusionsZika virus fusion occurs in late endosomes and is pH-dependent. These results broaden our understanding of Zika virus intracellular trafficking and may in future allow for development of novel treatment strategies. Further, we identified a novel mode of action for agents commonly used in studies of virus entry. Schematic representation of differences in ZIKV trafficking in the presence of Baf A1 and NH4Cl.

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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.

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Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread.

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