Zika in America: The Year in Review.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Fellner C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5132420 | biostudies-other | 2016 Dec
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
Publications
Zika in America: The Year in Review.
P & T : a peer-reviewed journal for formulary management 20161201 12
Short on funds and with no therapeutics or vaccines in sight, U.S. health officials are scrambling to prepare for a protracted fight with Zika virus and the mosquitoes that carry it. In this article, the author focuses on the arrival of Zika in the U.S. ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundLatin America presently has the world's highest burden of Zika virus, but there are unexplained differences in national rates of congenital malformations collectively referred to as Congenital Zika Syndrome (CZS) in the region. While Zika virulence and case detection likely contribute to these differences, policy-related factors, including access to abortion, may play important roles. Our goal was to assess perspectives on, and access to, abortion in Latin America in the context of the Zika epidemic.MethodsWe conducted a scoping review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published between January 2015 and December 2016, written in English, Spanish, Portuguese, or French. We searched PubMed, Scielo, and Google Scholar for literature on Zika and/or CZS and abortion, and used automated and manual review methods to synthesize the existing information.Results36 publications met our inclusion criteria, the majority of which were qualitative. Publications were generally in favor of increased access to safe abortion as a policy-level response for mitigating the impact of CZS, but issues with implementation were cited as the main challenge. Aside from the reform of abortion regulation in Colombia, we did not find evidence that the Zika epidemic had triggered shifts in abortion policy in other countries.ConclusionAbortion policy in the region remained largely unchanged following the Zika epidemic. Further empirical research on abortion access and differential rates of CZS across Latin American countries is required.
| S-EPMC5932843 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Between 2015 and 2017, Zika virus spread rapidly through populations in the Americas with no prior exposure to the disease. Although climate is a known determinant of many Aedes-transmitted diseases, it is currently unclear whether climate was a major driver of the Zika epidemic and how climate might have differentially impacted outbreak intensity across locations within Latin America. Here, we estimated force of infection for Zika over time and across provinces in Latin America using a time-varying susceptible-infectious-recovered model. Climate factors explained less than 5% of the variation in weekly transmission intensity in a spatio-temporal model of force of infection by province over time, suggesting that week to week transmission within provinces may be too stochastic to predict. By contrast, climate and population factors were highly predictive of spatial variation in the presence and intensity of Zika transmission among provinces, with pseudo-R2 values between 0.33 and 0.60. Temperature, temperature range, rainfall and population size were the most important predictors of where Zika transmission occurred, while rainfall, relative humidity and a nonlinear effect of temperature were the best predictors of Zika intensity and burden. Surprisingly, force of infection was greatest in locations with temperatures near 24°C, much lower than previous estimates from mechanistic models, potentially suggesting that existing vector control programmes and/or prior exposure to other mosquito-borne diseases may have limited transmission in locations most suitable for Aedes aegypti, the main vector of Zika, dengue and chikungunya viruses in Latin America.
| S-EPMC6732388 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2015 and 2016, Zika virus (ZIKV) swept through dengue virus (DENV) endemic areas of Latin America. These viruses are of the same family, share a vector and may interact competitively or synergistically through human immune responses. We examine dengue incidence from Brazil and Colombia before, during, and after the Zika epidemic. We find evidence that dengue incidence was atypically low in 2017 in both countries. We investigate whether subnational Zika incidence is associated with changes in dengue incidence and find mixed results. Using simulations with multiple assumptions of interactions between DENV and ZIKV, we find cross-protection suppresses incidence of dengue following Zika outbreaks and low periods of dengue incidence are followed by resurgence. Our simulations suggest correlations in DENV and ZIKV reproduction numbers could complicate associations between ZIKV incidence and post-ZIKV DENV incidence and that periods of low dengue incidence are followed by large increases in dengue incidence.
| S-EPMC6915707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Zika is one of the most challenging emergent vector-borne diseases, yet its future public health impact remains unclear. Zika was of little public health concern until recent reports of its association with congenital syndromes. By 3 August 2017 ?217,000 Zika cases and ?3,400 cases of associated congenital syndrome were reported in Latin America and the Caribbean. Some modelling exercises suggest that Zika virus infection could become endemic in agreement with recent declarations from the The World Health Organisation.We produced high-resolution spatially-explicit projections of Zika cases, associated congenital syndromes and monetary costs for Latin America and the Caribbean now that the epidemic phase of the disease appears to be over. In contrast to previous studies which have adopted a modelling approach to map Zika potential, we project case numbers using a statistical approach based upon reported dengue case data as a Zika surrogate. Our results indicate that ?12.3 (0.7-162.3) million Zika cases could be expected across Latin America and the Caribbean every year, leading to ?64.4 (0.2-5159.3) thousand cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and ?4.7 (0.0-116.3) thousand cases of microcephaly. The economic burden of these neurological sequelae are estimated to be USD ?2.3 (USD 0-159.3) billion per annum.Zika is likely to have significant public health consequences across Latin America and the Caribbean in years to come. Our projections inform regional and federal health authorities, offering an opportunity to adapt to this public health challenge.
| S-EPMC5683651 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The unexpected emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Pacific Islands and Latin America and its association with congenital Zika virus syndrome (CZVS) (which includes microcephaly) and Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) have stimulated wide-ranging research. High densities of susceptible Aedes spp., immunologically naive human populations, global population growth with increased urbanization, and escalation of global transportation of humans and commercial goods carrying vectors and ZIKV undoubtedly enhanced the emergence of ZIKV. However, flavivirus mutations accumulate with time, increasing the likelihood that genetic viral differences are determinants of change in viral phenotype. Based on comparative ZIKV complete genome phylogenetic analyses and temporal estimates, we identify amino acid substitutions that may be associated with increased viral epidemicity, CZVS, and GBS. Reverse genetics, vector competence, and seroepidemiological studies will test our hypothesis that these amino acid substitutions are determinants of epidemic and neurotropic ZIKV emergence.
| S-EPMC5061869 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC5026851 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Toxocariasis is an important neglected tropical disease that can manifest as visceral or ocular larva migrans, or covert toxocariasis. All three forms pose a public health problem and cause significant morbidity in areas of high prevalence. To determine the burden of toxocariasis in North America, we conducted a systematic review of the literature following PRISMA guidelines. We found 18 articles with original prevalence, incidence, or case data for toxocariasis. Prevalence estimates ranged from 0.6% in a Canadian Inuit community to 30.8% in Mexican children with asthma. Commonly cited risk factors included: African-American race, poverty, male sex, and pet ownership or environmental contamination by animal feces. Increased prevalence of Toxocara spp. infection was linked in a group of case control studies conducted in Mexico to several high risk groups including waste pickers, asthmatic children, and inpatient psychiatry patients. Further research is needed to determine the true current burden of toxocariasis in North America; however the prevalence estimates gathered in this review suggest that the burden of disease is significant.
| S-EPMC4148222 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundZika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.MethodsOur analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories.ResultsThere was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p?<?0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases.ConclusionsThe findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity.
| S-EPMC6169075 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundZika is of great medical relevance due to its rapid geographical spread in 2015 and 2016 in South America and its serious implications, for example, certain birth defects. Recent epidemics urgently require a better understanding of geographic patterns of the Zika virus transmission risk. This study aims to map the Zika virus transmission risk in South and Central America. We applied the maximum entropy approach, which is common for species distribution modelling, but is now also widely in use for estimating the geographical distribution of infectious diseases.MethodsAs predictor variables we used a set of variables considered to be potential drivers of both direct and indirect effects on the emergence of Zika. Specifically, we considered (a) the modelled habitat suitability for the two main vector species Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus as a proxy of vector species distributions; (b) temperature, as it has a great influence on virus transmission; (c) commonly called evidence consensus maps (ECM) of human Zika virus infections on a regional scale as a proxy for virus distribution; (d) ECM of human dengue virus infections and, (e) as possibly relevant socio-economic factors, population density and the gross domestic product.ResultsThe highest values for the Zika transmission risk were modelled for the eastern coast of Brazil as well as in Central America, moderate values for the Amazon basin and low values for southern parts of South America. The following countries were modelled to be particularly affected: Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Puerto Rico and Venezuela. While modelled vector habitat suitability as predictor variable showed the highest contribution to the transmission risk model, temperature of the warmest quarter contributed only comparatively little. Areas with optimal temperature conditions for virus transmission overlapped only little with areas of suitable habitat conditions for the two main vector species. Instead, areas with the highest transmission risk were characterised as areas with temperatures below the optimum of the virus, but high habitat suitability modelled for the two main vector species.ConclusionModelling approaches can help estimating the spatial and temporal dynamics of a disease. We focused on the key drivers relevant in the Zika transmission cycle (vector, pathogen, and hosts) and integrated each single component into the model. Despite the uncertainties generally associated with modelling, the approach applied in this study can be used as a tool and assist decision making and managing the spread of Zika.
| S-EPMC6863140 | biostudies-literature