Epidemiology of tuberculosis in Chongqing, China: a secular trend from 1992 to 2015.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wu B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552739 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Objective:Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China. Methods:We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects. Results:In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead. Conclusion:The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.
| S-EPMC7062399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe Nidirana Dubois, 1992 exhibit a ubiquitous presence in East and Southeast Asia, spanning from Japan west to southern China and from northern Thailand to northern Vietnam and Laos in the south. The taxonomic categorisations pertaining to this genus continue to be a subject of debate, particularly with regard to those species that possess broad geographical distributions. In China, 18 species of Nidirana are currently recognised.New informationWe describe a new species of this genus from south-western China. Mitochondrial 16S and COⅠ gene phylogenetic analyses support the new species as an independent clade nested within the Nidirana. The new species is phylogenetically close to N.yaoica, with a genetic distance of 2.5% from its sister taxon. Morphologically, the new species can be distinguished from congeners by a combination of the following characteristics: males relatively small (SVL 41.8-43.3 mm); lateroventral grooves present on both fingers and toes; relative finger length Ⅱ < Ⅰ < Ⅳ < Ⅲ; tibio-tarsal articulation reaching to the level of the eye or nostril; a pair of external subgular vocal sacs in males; one single nuptial pad on the dorsal surface of the base of the first finger in males during the breeding season; webbing formula I 1/2 - 1 II 1/2 - 2 III 1 - 2½ IV 2 - 1V.
| S-EPMC10848812 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the trend of human fecundity over time in China.MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted in Tongliao, China. Couples who were married during the time period between January 1, 1981 and December 31, 2003 were considered eligible for this study. A total of 27,413 individuals provided valid information via house-to-house interviews. The 12-month cumulative pregnancy rate (CPR) and annual percentage change were used as the outcome measurements.ResultsThere was a significant increase in the CPR over the five successive time groups. A break point in 1988 divided the entire study period into two distinct segments: 1981-1988, during which the CPR increased from 72.2% to 84.2%, and 1988-2003, during which the CPR increased from 84.2% to 87.2%.ConclusionsThe findings were unlikely to be the result of biases, and could not be explained by increased medical treatment for infertility and changes in the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases. Dramatic societal and behavioral changes due to the unique family planning policy and economic reform policies in China might have been the plausible reason for the results.
| S-EPMC5082934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundChongqing is the largest municipality and located in Southwestern of China, with over 30 million registered inhabitants. There are few reports regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing. The objective of the paper is to explore the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing, in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of influenza.Methodology /principal findingsFrom 2011 to 2015, we collected information on influenza-like illness (ILI) patients fulfilling the case definition, and took nasalpharyngeal or throat swabs specimens from ILI cases per week at the 7 sentinel hospitals. Specimens were tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) for influenza. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the epidemiology and etiology of influenza. A total of 9,696,212 cases were enrolled, of which 111,589 were ILI. Of those 24,868 samples from ILI cases, 13.3% (3,314/24,868) tested positive for influenza virus (65.7% influenza A, 34.1% influenza B, and 0.2% influenza A and B co-infection). Among the influenza A viruses, 71.3% were seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and 28.7% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. No cases of seasonal A(H1N1) were detected. The isolation rate was highest in children aged 5-14 years old. Influenza activity consistently peaked during January-March in 2011-2015, and June-July in 2012, 2014 and 2015.ConclusionsInfluenza is an important public health problem among ILI patients in Chongqing, especially among school-aged children. It might be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children and implement the school-based intervention to prevent and mitigating influenza outbreaks in Chongqing, particularly during the seasonal peaks.
| S-EPMC5148009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:China ranks second in the world in terms of numbers of tuberculosis (TB) cases and is one of the top three countries with the largest number of multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB). It also has high mortality and low cure rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive TB patients. This study aimed to analyse, under the integrated TB control model, the characteristics of TB patients seeking healthcare in the largest designated TB hospital in Chongqing. METHODS:This was a retrospective study of TB registers in a health facility. Record data of 1827?TB patients who had attended the Chongqing Public Health Medical Center (CPHMC) from 1 January to 31 December 2018 were included. The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 18.0; IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA) was used to analyse the data. Counting data were compared using the chi-square test or Fisher' s exact test. Among the results of the univariate analysis, the variables with statistical significance were included in the binomial stepwise logistic regression, with odds ratio and 95% confidence interval calculated. A two-tailed probability level of P?<?0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS:The majority of registered patients were men (1197), of Han ethnicity (1670), aged 21-60?years (1331), farmer/unemployed (1075), and living in county/district (1207). Approximately 24.9% of patients (455/1827) contracted DR-TB, 6% (110/1827) were co-infected with HIV, and 41.0% (749/1827) had drug-related hepatotoxicity. Among those patients, DR-TB was more likely to develop among farmers who received retreatment and had drug-related hepatotoxicity (P?<?0.05). Women who received retreatment and lived in county/district were less likely to be HIV positive (P?<?0.05). Compared with farmers, patients who were unemployed were more likely to be HIV positive, and those aged 21-60?years had a higher risk of being tested as HIV positive (P?<?0.05). CONCLUSION:Farmers who received retreatment and had drug-related hepatotoxicity are more susceptible to DR-TB; young unemployed men have a higher risk of contracting HIV-positive TB. The demographic and clinical characteristics of TB patients should be taken into consideration in DR-TB and HIV-positive TB screening in the future.
| S-EPMC7404911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human rhinovirus-C (HRV-C) has been increasingly detected in patients with acute respiratory diseases (ARDs). Prolonged surveillance was performed on children with ARD to investigate the molecular epidemiology and clinical characteristics of HRV in Chongqing, China. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) were collected from hospitalized children with ARD during 2009-2012. HRV-C was genotyped by sequencing the VP4/VP2 coding region. Among the 1,567 NPAs obtained, 223 (14.2%) were HRV positive, and 75.3% of these 223 NPAs were co-infected with other viruses. HRV-A (54.7%) and HRV-C (39.9%) accounted for the majority of HRV infections. Logistic regression models demonstrated significant associations between HRV-A, HRV-C, and asthma attacks, as well as between HRV-C and wheezing. A phylogenetic tree showed that HRV-C2 was the predominant type of HRV-C, followed by HRV-C43, HRV-C1, and HRV-C17. Three novel genotypes were proposed on the basis of a low identity with the known HRVs. Our results showed that HRV-A and HRV-C were the predominant types of HRV infection, and HRV-C showed a high genetic variation in Chongqing, China. HRV infection was associated with asthma attacks and wheezing; furthermore, HRV infections played a minor role in causing severe pneumonia. This knowledge provides information for the prevention and control of HRV associated with ARDs.
| S-EPMC4202208 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Age at menarche is not only a parameter that signifies biological characteristics for women but is also considered as an indicator to measure the quality of life of a population. Moreover, menarche has significant implications on women's health and information about menarcheal age is crucial for health policymakers. However, little is known about the trends in menarcheal age in India. Thus, in order to fill this research gap, the present study aimed to explore the age at menarche, its trend and regional heterogeneity among Indian women. A birth cohort approach was used by polling data from the 1st (1992-93), 4th (2015-16) and 5th (2019-21) rounds of NFHS. Descriptive statistics and bivariate analyses were performed to present the distribution of age at menarche and mean age at menarche across birth cohorts and each category of covariates. A multiple linear regression model was fitted to examine the trend in age at menarche and further to investigate the association of covariates with menarcheal age among Indian women. The analysis demonstrated that a majority of women (66.2%) attained menarche between the ages of 13-14 years. Moreover, about 17.2% of women experienced an early age at menarche, whereas 16.7% of women had a late age at menarche. The mean age at menarche for the sampled women was 13.49 years. The analysis also observed a secular declining trend in menarcheal age among Indian women and a significant variation in the mean age at menarche across birth cohorts. It also highlighted significant socio-economic patterning in menarcheal age among women.
| S-EPMC10914750 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAge at menarche (AAM) has shown different trends in women from different ethnic and economic regions in recent decades. Data on AAM among multiethnic women living in developing areas are scarce.MethodsData on AAM from 1,275,000 women among 26 ethnicities in Yunnan Province, China, who were born from 1965 to 2001 were obtained from the National Free Preconception Health Examination Project from 2010 to 2018. The patterns of AAM trends were analysed according to ethnic group, area of residence, and socioeconomic status.ResultsThe mean AAM was 13.7 ± 1.21 years (95% CI 13.697-13.701), with a decrease from 14.12 (±1.41) among women born before 1970 to 13.3 (±1.04) among those born after 2000. The decline was 0.36 years per 10-year birth cohort, and the plateau has not yet been reached in Yunnan. A secular trend of earlier AAM was observed in all 26 ethnic groups. The fastest rate of decline was observed for the Bai ethnicity (0.36 years per decade). Consistent declining trends in AAM appeared among extreme-, middling-, and nonpoverty economic patterns from 1965 to 2001, with reductions of 1.19, 1.44, and 1.5 years, respectively (P < 0.001). The peak reduction among middling poverty and extreme poverty occurred in the early 2000s (0.4 and 0.32 years). Multivariate analysis showed a significant difference in the declining trends in AAM along rural/urban lines (P < 0.001).ConclusionThere was a secular trend towards a younger AAM during the twentieth century and early twenty-first century birth cohorts in the Yunnan population. Considering the difference in AAM trends due to ethnic and socioeconomic status in Yunnan, the health authority should utilize flexible adjusted health care strategies in different regions.
| S-EPMC8524999 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives:To investigate the consumption trend and prescription pattern of opioids in China from 2006 to 2015, and compare the results with those of selected countries and regions, and identify the pain relief level of China. Methods:Nine different opioid drugs were included in our survey, based on the whole population of China. Consumption of each type of opioid was calculated in grams in reports of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration and the International Narcotics Control Board. Then it was converted to the terms of defined daily doses and morphine equivalents. The correlation between consumption of opioids and gross domestic product, human development index and cancer incidence was analysed by Pearson's correlation test. Results:Defined daily doses increased by 7.89% per year since 2006, and reached 91.05 in 2015. Morphine equivalents increased by 10.57% per year since 2006, and reached 7.24?g in 2015. The average defined daily doses and morphine equivalents were 85.44 and 5.70?g respectively in 2006-2015. Annual defined daily doses of China were lower than the global average. Consumption was related to gross domestic product, but not human development index and cancer incidence. Furthermore, defined daily doses varied greatly in countries with similar gross domestic product or the human development index. Strong opioids or non-intravenous opioids always constituted the majority of opioids, and sustained an increasing tendency in consumption. The predominantly prescribed opioids were fentanyl and morphine. Consumption of oxycodone had a tendency to increase, whereas pethidine tended to decrease. Conclusion:Consumption of opioids has shown an increasing tendency and in the meantime the prescription pattern has changed, indicating the progress of pain relief in China, though it remained far lower than the average global level.
| S-EPMC6684019 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Using China's national surveillance data on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) for 2008-2015, we described the epidemiologic and virologic features of recurrent HFMD. A total of 398,010 patients had HFMD recurrence; 1,767 patients had 1,814 cases of recurrent laboratory-confirmed HFMD: 99 reinfections of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) with EV-A71, 45 of coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) with CV-A16, 364 of other enteroviruses with other enteroviruses, 383 of EV-A71 with CV-A16 and CV-A16 with EV-A71, and 923 of EV-A71 or CV-A16 with other enteroviruses and other enteroviruses with EV-A71 or CV-A16. The probability of HFMD recurrence was 1.9% at 12 months, 3.3% at 24 months, 3.9% at 36 months, and 4.0% at 38.8 months after the primary episode. HFMD severity was not associated with recurrent episodes or time interval between episodes. Elucidation of the mechanism underlying HFMD recurrence with the same enterovirus serotype and confirmation that HFMD recurrence is not associated with disease severity is needed.
| S-EPMC5823341 | biostudies-literature