Epidemiology of tuberculosis in Chongqing, China: a secular trend from 1992 to 2015.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Wu B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC5552739 | biostudies-other | 2017 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:Objective:Tuberculosis (TB) is a major public health problem in China, and contriving a long-term forecast is a useful aid for better launching prevention initiatives. Regrettably, such a forecasting method with robust and accurate performance is still lacking. Here, we aim to investigate its potential of the error-trend-seasonal (ETS) framework through a series of comparative experiments to analyze and forecast its secular epidemic seasonality and trends of TB incidence in China. Methods:We collected the TB incidence data from January 1997 to August 2019, and then partitioning the data into eight different training and testing subsamples. Thereafter, we constructed the ETS and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models based on the training subsamples, and multiple performance indices including the mean absolute deviation, mean absolute percentage error, root-mean-squared error, and mean error rate were adopted to assess their simulation and projection effects. Results:In the light of the above performance measures, the ETS models provided a pronounced improvement for the long-term seasonality and trend forecasting in TB incidence rate over the SARIMA models, be it in various training or testing subsets apart from the 48-step ahead forecasting. The descriptive results to the data revealed that TB incidence showed notable seasonal characteristics with predominant peaks of spring and early summer and began to be plunging at on average 3.722% per year since 2008. However, this rate reduced to 2.613% per year since 2015 and furthermore such a trend would be predicted to continue in years ahead. Conclusion:The ETS framework has the ability to conduct long-term forecasting for TB incidence, which may be beneficial for the long-term planning of the TB prevention and control. Additionally, considering the predicted dropping rate of TB morbidity, more particular strategies should be formulated to dramatically accelerate progress towards the goals of the End TB Strategy.
| S-EPMC7062399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to assess the trend of human fecundity over time in China.MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted in Tongliao, China. Couples who were married during the time period between January 1, 1981 and December 31, 2003 were considered eligible for this study. A total of 27,413 individuals provided valid information via house-to-house interviews. The 12-month cumulative pregnancy rate (CPR) and annual percentage change were used as the outcome measurements.ResultsThere was a significant increase in the CPR over the five successive time groups. A break point in 1988 divided the entire study period into two distinct segments: 1981-1988, during which the CPR increased from 72.2% to 84.2%, and 1988-2003, during which the CPR increased from 84.2% to 87.2%.ConclusionsThe findings were unlikely to be the result of biases, and could not be explained by increased medical treatment for infertility and changes in the prevalence of sexually transmitted diseases. Dramatic societal and behavioral changes due to the unique family planning policy and economic reform policies in China might have been the plausible reason for the results.
| S-EPMC5082934 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundChongqing is the largest municipality and located in Southwestern of China, with over 30 million registered inhabitants. There are few reports regarding the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing. The objective of the paper is to explore the epidemiology of influenza in Chongqing, in order to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of influenza.Methodology /principal findingsFrom 2011 to 2015, we collected information on influenza-like illness (ILI) patients fulfilling the case definition, and took nasalpharyngeal or throat swabs specimens from ILI cases per week at the 7 sentinel hospitals. Specimens were tested by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction(RT-PCR) for influenza. Descriptive epidemiology was applied to analyze the epidemiology and etiology of influenza. A total of 9,696,212 cases were enrolled, of which 111,589 were ILI. Of those 24,868 samples from ILI cases, 13.3% (3,314/24,868) tested positive for influenza virus (65.7% influenza A, 34.1% influenza B, and 0.2% influenza A and B co-infection). Among the influenza A viruses, 71.3% were seasonal influenza A(H3N2) and 28.7% were influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. No cases of seasonal A(H1N1) were detected. The isolation rate was highest in children aged 5-14 years old. Influenza activity consistently peaked during January-March in 2011-2015, and June-July in 2012, 2014 and 2015.ConclusionsInfluenza is an important public health problem among ILI patients in Chongqing, especially among school-aged children. It might be beneficial to prioritize influenza vaccination for school-aged children and implement the school-based intervention to prevent and mitigating influenza outbreaks in Chongqing, particularly during the seasonal peaks.
| S-EPMC5148009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:China ranks second in the world in terms of numbers of tuberculosis (TB) cases and is one of the top three countries with the largest number of multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant TB (MDR/RR-TB). It also has high mortality and low cure rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive TB patients. This study aimed to analyse, under the integrated TB control model, the characteristics of TB patients seeking healthcare in the largest designated TB hospital in Chongqing. METHODS:This was a retrospective study of TB registers in a health facility. Record data of 1827?TB patients who had attended the Chongqing Public Health Medical Center (CPHMC) from 1 January to 31 December 2018 were included. The Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS 18.0; IBM Corporation, Armonk, NY, USA) was used to analyse the data. Counting data were compared using the chi-square test or Fisher' s exact test. Among the results of the univariate analysis, the variables with statistical significance were included in the binomial stepwise logistic regression, with odds ratio and 95% confidence interval calculated. A two-tailed probability level of P?<?0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS:The majority of registered patients were men (1197), of Han ethnicity (1670), aged 21-60?years (1331), farmer/unemployed (1075), and living in county/district (1207). Approximately 24.9% of patients (455/1827) contracted DR-TB, 6% (110/1827) were co-infected with HIV, and 41.0% (749/1827) had drug-related hepatotoxicity. Among those patients, DR-TB was more likely to develop among farmers who received retreatment and had drug-related hepatotoxicity (P?<?0.05). Women who received retreatment and lived in county/district were less likely to be HIV positive (P?<?0.05). Compared with farmers, patients who were unemployed were more likely to be HIV positive, and those aged 21-60?years had a higher risk of being tested as HIV positive (P?<?0.05). CONCLUSION:Farmers who received retreatment and had drug-related hepatotoxicity are more susceptible to DR-TB; young unemployed men have a higher risk of contracting HIV-positive TB. The demographic and clinical characteristics of TB patients should be taken into consideration in DR-TB and HIV-positive TB screening in the future.
| S-EPMC7404911 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Human rhinovirus-C (HRV-C) has been increasingly detected in patients with acute respiratory diseases (ARDs). Prolonged surveillance was performed on children with ARD to investigate the molecular epidemiology and clinical characteristics of HRV in Chongqing, China. Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPA) were collected from hospitalized children with ARD during 2009-2012. HRV-C was genotyped by sequencing the VP4/VP2 coding region. Among the 1,567 NPAs obtained, 223 (14.2%) were HRV positive, and 75.3% of these 223 NPAs were co-infected with other viruses. HRV-A (54.7%) and HRV-C (39.9%) accounted for the majority of HRV infections. Logistic regression models demonstrated significant associations between HRV-A, HRV-C, and asthma attacks, as well as between HRV-C and wheezing. A phylogenetic tree showed that HRV-C2 was the predominant type of HRV-C, followed by HRV-C43, HRV-C1, and HRV-C17. Three novel genotypes were proposed on the basis of a low identity with the known HRVs. Our results showed that HRV-A and HRV-C were the predominant types of HRV infection, and HRV-C showed a high genetic variation in Chongqing, China. HRV infection was associated with asthma attacks and wheezing; furthermore, HRV infections played a minor role in causing severe pneumonia. This knowledge provides information for the prevention and control of HRV associated with ARDs.
| S-EPMC4202208 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Enterococcus faecalis strains with low-level resistance to linezolid (an oxazolidinone antibiotic) have become common. No large-scale study has examined the underlying mechanisms in linezolid-resistant E. faecalis (LRE) strains. We investigated these mechanisms and molecular characteristics in Chongqing, China. METHODS:A total of 1,120 non-duplicated E. faecalis strains collected from August 2014 to June 2017 underwent drug susceptibility testing. LRE strains were screened for optrA, cfr, and mutations in the 23S rRNA and ribosomal proteins L3 and L4 by PCR amplification and sequencing. Multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) were used for epidemiological analysis. RESULTS:All 43 low-level LRE strains (minimum inhibitory concentration: 8-16 mg/L) harbored optrA; cfr and 23S rRNA mutations were not detected. Novel mutations in the ribosomal proteins L3 and L4-one deletion (Q103del) and four substitutions (S113L, T35A, I98V, and N79D)-were identified. Novel amino acid substitutions at positions E60K, G197D, and T285P of the OptrA protein were observed. MLST revealed 20 types of LRE strains; the most common type was ST16 (32.6%). PFGE showed 14 strains of ST16 with unique banding patterns. Eight novel sequence types (ST823 to ST830) and one allele (gki95) were identified for the first time in China. CONCLUSIONS:optrA plays an important role in linezolid resistance and may serve as a marker for resistance screening. Since the L3 and L4 mutations did not simultaneously occur in the same strain, they play a negligible role in linezolid resistance. Epidemiological investigation suggested that the LRE cases were sporadic.
| S-EPMC6143467 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objectives:To investigate the consumption trend and prescription pattern of opioids in China from 2006 to 2015, and compare the results with those of selected countries and regions, and identify the pain relief level of China. Methods:Nine different opioid drugs were included in our survey, based on the whole population of China. Consumption of each type of opioid was calculated in grams in reports of the Chinese Food and Drug Administration and the International Narcotics Control Board. Then it was converted to the terms of defined daily doses and morphine equivalents. The correlation between consumption of opioids and gross domestic product, human development index and cancer incidence was analysed by Pearson's correlation test. Results:Defined daily doses increased by 7.89% per year since 2006, and reached 91.05 in 2015. Morphine equivalents increased by 10.57% per year since 2006, and reached 7.24?g in 2015. The average defined daily doses and morphine equivalents were 85.44 and 5.70?g respectively in 2006-2015. Annual defined daily doses of China were lower than the global average. Consumption was related to gross domestic product, but not human development index and cancer incidence. Furthermore, defined daily doses varied greatly in countries with similar gross domestic product or the human development index. Strong opioids or non-intravenous opioids always constituted the majority of opioids, and sustained an increasing tendency in consumption. The predominantly prescribed opioids were fentanyl and morphine. Consumption of oxycodone had a tendency to increase, whereas pethidine tended to decrease. Conclusion:Consumption of opioids has shown an increasing tendency and in the meantime the prescription pattern has changed, indicating the progress of pain relief in China, though it remained far lower than the average global level.
| S-EPMC6684019 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Using China's national surveillance data on hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) for 2008-2015, we described the epidemiologic and virologic features of recurrent HFMD. A total of 398,010 patients had HFMD recurrence; 1,767 patients had 1,814 cases of recurrent laboratory-confirmed HFMD: 99 reinfections of enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) with EV-A71, 45 of coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) with CV-A16, 364 of other enteroviruses with other enteroviruses, 383 of EV-A71 with CV-A16 and CV-A16 with EV-A71, and 923 of EV-A71 or CV-A16 with other enteroviruses and other enteroviruses with EV-A71 or CV-A16. The probability of HFMD recurrence was 1.9% at 12 months, 3.3% at 24 months, 3.9% at 36 months, and 4.0% at 38.8 months after the primary episode. HFMD severity was not associated with recurrent episodes or time interval between episodes. Elucidation of the mechanism underlying HFMD recurrence with the same enterovirus serotype and confirmation that HFMD recurrence is not associated with disease severity is needed.
| S-EPMC5823341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background Obesity and its health consequences will dominate health care systems in many countries during the next decades. However, the body mass index (BMI) optimum in relation to all-cause mortality is still a matter of debate.Material and Methods Data of the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring & Prevention Program (VHM&PP, 1985-2005) and data provided by the Main Association of Austrian Social Security Institutions (MAASSI, 2005-2015) were analyzed. Information was available on age, sex, smoking status, measured height and weight, and mortality. Generalized additive models were used to model mortality as a function of BMI, calendar time, age, and follow-up.Results In MAASSI (N=282,216, 46.0% men), men and women were on average 2.7 years older than in VHM&PP (N=185,361, 46.1% men). Average BMI was slightly higher in men (26.1 vs. 25.7 kg/m2) but not in women (24.6 vs. 24.7 kg/m2).We found an interactive effect of age and follow-up on the BMI optimum. Over age 35 in men and 55 years in women, the BMI optimum decreased with length of follow-up. While keeping covariates fixed, BMI optimum increased slightly between 1985 and 2015 in men and women, 24.9 (95%-CI, 23.9-25.9) to 26.4 (25.3-27.3), and 22.4 (21.7-23.1) to 23.3 (22.6-24.5) kg/m2, respectively.Conclusion Age and length of follow-up have a pronounced effect on the BMI associated with the lowest all-cause mortality. After controlling for age and length of follow-up, the BMI optimum increased slightly over 30 years in this large study sample.
| S-EPMC8593575 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To investigate the extent and associations of patient/diagnostic delay and other potential factors with catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) for tuberculosis (TB) care in Chongqing municipality, China. DESIGN:A cross-sectional study. SETTING:Four counties of Chongqing municipality, China. PARTICIPANTS:A total of 1199 patients with active pulmonary TB beyond 16 years and without mental disorders were consecutively recruited in the four counties' designated TB medical institutions. OUTCOME MEASURES:The incidence and intensity of CHE for TB care were described. The association between patients' 'sociodemographic and clinical characteristics such as patient delay, diagnostic delay, forms of TB, health insurance status and hospitalisation and CHE were analysed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS:The incidence of CHE was 52.8% and out-of-pocket (OOP) payments were 93% of the total costs for TB care. Compared with patients without delay, the incidence and intensity of CHE were higher in patients who had patient delay or diagnostic delay. Patients who experienced patient delay or diagnostic delay, who was a male, elderly (≥60 years), an inhabitant, a peasant, divorced/widow, the New Cooperative Medical Scheme membership had greater risks of incurring CHE for TB care. Having a higher educational level appeared to be a protective factor. However, hospitalisation was not associated with CHE after controlling for other variables. CONCLUSION:The incidence and intensity of CHE for TB care are high, which provides baseline data about catastrophic costs that TB-related households faced in Chongqing of China. Variety of determinants of CHE implicate that it is essential to take effective measures to promote early seeking care and early diagnosis, improve the actual reimbursement rates of health insurance, especially for outpatients, and need more fine-tuned interventions such as precise poverty alleviation to reduce catastrophic costs of the vulnerable population.
| S-EPMC6500361 | biostudies-other