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Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific pattern of summertime atmospheric circulation--the summer East Atlantic (SEA) pattern--is predictable from the previous spring. An index of North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures in March-April can predict the SEA pattern in July-August with a cross-validated correlation skill above 0.6. Our analyses show that the sea-surface temperatures influence atmospheric circulation and the position of the jet stream over the North Atlantic. The SEA pattern has a particularly strong influence on rainfall in the British Isles, which we find can also be predicted months ahead with a significant skill of 0.56. Our results have immediate application to empirical forecasts of summer rainfall for the United Kingdom, Ireland, and northern France and also suggest that current dynamical model forecast systems have large potential for improvement.

SUBMITTER: Osso A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5776804 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

Ossó Albert A Sutton Rowan R Shaffrey Len L Dong Buwen B

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20171218 1

Forecasts of summer weather patterns months in advance would be of great value for a wide range of applications. However, seasonal dynamical model forecasts for European summers have very little skill, particularly for rainfall. It has not been clear whether this low skill reflects inherent unpredictability of summer weather or, alternatively, is a consequence of weaknesses in current forecast systems. Here we analyze atmosphere and ocean observations and identify evidence that a specific patter ...[more]

PMID: 29255052

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Project description:Evolutionary morphological and physiological differences between browsers and grazers contribute to species-specific digestion efficiency of food resources. Rumen microbial community structure of browsers is supposedly adapted to characteristic nutrient composition of the diet source. If this assumption is correct, domesticated ruminants, or grazers, are poor model animals for assessing the nutritional value of food consumed by browsing game species. In this study, typical spring and summer foods of the European moose (Alces alces) were combined with rumen fluid collected from both dairy cows (Bos taurus) and from moose, with the aim of comparing fermentation efficiency and microbial community composition. The nutritional value of the food resources was characterized by chemical analysis and advanced in vitro measurements. The study also addressed whether or not feed evaluation based on in vitro techniques with cattle rumen fluid as inoculum could be a practical alternative when evaluating the nutritional value of plants consumed by wild browsers. Our results suggest that the fermentation characteristics of moose spring and summer food are partly host-specific and related to the contribution of the bacterial phyla Firmicutes and Bacteriodetes to the rumen microbial community. Host-specific adaptations of the ruminal microbial community structure could be explained from the evolutionary adaptations related to feeding habitats and morphophysiological differences between browsers and grazers. However, the observed overall differences in microbial community structure could not be related to ruminal digestion parameters measured in vitro. The in vitro evaluation of digestion efficiency reveals that equal amounts of methane were produced across all feed samples regardless of whether the ruminal fluid was from moose or dairy cow. The results of this study suggested that the nutritional value of browsers' spring and summer food can be predicted using rumen fluid from domesticated grazers as inoculum in in vitro assessments of extent of digestion when excluding samples of the white water lily root, but not of fermentation characteristics as indicated by the proportions of individual fermentation fatty acids to the total of volatile fatty acids.

Project description:BackgroundIn late spring 2009, concern was raised in Canada that prior vaccination with the 2008-09 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) was associated with increased risk of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) illness. Several epidemiologic investigations were conducted through the summer to assess this putative association.Methods and findingsStudies included(1) test-negative case-control design based on Canada's sentinel vaccine effectiveness monitoring system in British Columbia, Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec; (2) conventional case-control design using population controls in Quebec; (3) test-negative case-control design in Ontario; and (4) prospective household transmission (cohort) study in Quebec. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios for TIV effect on community- or hospital-based laboratory-confirmed seasonal or pH1N1 influenza cases compared to controls with restriction, stratification, and adjustment for covariates including combinations of age, sex, comorbidity, timeliness of medical visit, prior physician visits, and/or health care worker (HCW) status. For the prospective study risk ratios were computed. Based on the sentinel study of 672 cases and 857 controls, 2008-09 TIV was associated with statistically significant protection against seasonal influenza (odds ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.33-0.59). In contrast, estimates from the sentinel and three other observational studies, involving a total of 1,226 laboratory-confirmed pH1N1 cases and 1,505 controls, indicated that prior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009, with estimated risk or odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 2.5. Risk of pH1N1 hospitalization was not further increased among vaccinated people when comparing hospitalized to community cases.ConclusionsPrior receipt of 2008-09 TIV was associated with increased risk of medically attended pH1N1 illness during the spring-summer 2009 in Canada. The occurrence of bias (selection, information) or confounding cannot be ruled out. Further experimental and epidemiological assessment is warranted. Possible biological mechanisms and immunoepidemiologic implications are considered.

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Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

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Observational evidence of European summer weather patterns predictable from spring.

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