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Quantifying and reducing statistical uncertainty in sample-based health program costing studies in low- and middle-income countries.

ABSTRACT: In many low- and middle-income countries, the costs of delivering public health programs such as for HIV/AIDS, nutrition, and immunization are not routinely tracked. A number of recent studies have sought to estimate program costs on the basis of detailed information collected on a subsample of facilities. While unbiased estimates can be obtained via accurate measurement and appropriate analyses, they are subject to statistical uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty, for example, via standard errors and/or 95% confidence intervals, provides important contextual information for decision-makers and for the design of future costing studies. While other forms of uncertainty, such as that due to model misspecification, are considered and can be investigated through sensitivity analyses, statistical uncertainty is often not reported in studies estimating the total program costs. This may be due to a lack of awareness/understanding of (1) the technical details regarding uncertainty estimation and (2) the availability of software with which to calculate uncertainty for estimators resulting from complex surveys. We provide an overview of statistical uncertainty in the context of complex costing surveys, emphasizing the various potential specific sources that contribute to overall uncertainty.We describe how analysts can compute measures of uncertainty, either via appropriately derived formulae or through resampling techniques such as the bootstrap. We also provide an overview of calibration as a means of using additional auxiliary information that is readily available for the entire program, such as the total number of doses administered, to decrease uncertainty and thereby improve decision-making and the planning of future studies.A recent study of the national program for routine immunization in Honduras shows that uncertainty can be reduced by using information available prior to the study. This method can not only be used when estimating the total cost of delivering established health programs but also to decrease uncertainty when the interest lies in assessing the incremental effect of an intervention.Measures of statistical uncertainty associated with survey-based estimates of program costs, such as standard errors and 95% confidence intervals, provide important contextual information for health policy decision-making and key inputs for the design of future costing studies. Such measures are often not reported, possibly because of technical challenges associated with their calculation and a lack of awareness of appropriate software. Modern statistical analysis methods for survey data, such as calibration, provide a means to exploit additional information that is readily available but was not used in the design of the study to significantly improve the estimation of total cost through the reduction of statistical uncertainty.

SUBMITTER: Rivera-Rodriguez CL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5888835 | biostudies-other | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Quantifying and reducing statistical uncertainty in sample-based health program costing studies in low- and middle-income countries.

Rivera-Rodriguez Claudia L CL Resch Stephen S Haneuse Sebastien S

SAGE open medicine 20180322

<h4>Objectives</h4>In many low- and middle-income countries, the costs of delivering public health programs such as for HIV/AIDS, nutrition, and immunization are not routinely tracked. A number of recent studies have sought to estimate program costs on the basis of detailed information collected on a subsample of facilities. While unbiased estimates can be obtained via accurate measurement and appropriate analyses, they are subject to statistical uncertainty. Quantification of this uncertainty, ...[more]

PMID: 29636964

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Project description:BackgroundThe apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (or one of its derivatives) is the primary clinical metric for characterizing sleep disordered breathing-the value of which with respect to a threshold determines severity of diagnosis and eligibility for treatment reimbursement. The index value, however, is taken as a perfect point estimate, with no measure of statistical uncertainty. Thus, current practice does not robustly account for variability in diagnosis/eligibility due to chance. In this paper, we quantify the statistical uncertainty associated with respiratory event indices for sleep disordered breathing and the effect of uncertainty on treatment eligibility.MethodsWe develop an empirical estimate of uncertainty using a non-parametric bootstrap on the interevent times, as well as a theoretical Poisson estimate reflecting the current formulation of the AHI. We then apply these methods to estimate AHI uncertainty for 2049 subjects (954/1095 M/F, age: mean 69 ± 9.1) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).Results and conclusionsThe mean 95% empirical confidence interval width was 11.500 ± 6.208 events per hour and the mean 95% theoretical Poisson confidence interval width was 5.998 ± 2.897 events per hour, suggesting that uncertainty is likely a major confounding factor within the current diagnostic framework. Of the 278 subjects in the symptomatic population (ESS>10), 27% (76/278) had uncertain diagnoses given the 95% empirical confidence interval. Of the 2049 subjects in the full population, 43% (880/2049) had uncertain diagnoses given the 95% empirical confidence interval. The inclusion of subjects with uncertain diagnoses increases the number of eligible patients by 21.3% for the symptomatic population and by 84.8% for the full population. The exclusion of subjects with uncertain diagnoses given the 95% empirical confidence interval decreases the number of eligible patients by 12.4% for the symptomatic population and by 34.8% for full population. Additional analyses suggest that it is practically infeasible to gain diagnostic statistical significance through additional testing for a broad range of borderline cases. Overall, these results suggest that AHI uncertainty is a vital additional piece of information that would greatly benefit clinical practice, and that the inclusion of uncertainty in epidemiological analysis might help improve the ability for researchers to robustly link AHI with co-morbidities and long-term outcomes.

Project description:Summary Background Surgical site infection (SSI) is the most common postoperative complication worldwide. WHO guidelines to prevent SSI recommend alcoholic chlorhexidine skin preparation and fascial closure using triclosan-coated sutures, but called for assessment of both interventions in low-resource settings. This study aimed to test both interventions in low-income and middle-income countries. Methods FALCON was a 2 × 2 factorial, randomised controlled trial stratified by whether surgery was clean-contaminated, or contaminated or dirty, including patients undergoing abdominal surgery with a skin incision of 5 cm or greater. This trial was undertaken in 54 hospitals in seven countries (Benin, Ghana, India, Mexico, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa). Patients were computer randomised 1:1:1:1 to: (1) 2% alcoholic chlorhexidine and non-coated suture, (2) 2% alcoholic chlorhexidine and triclosan-coated suture, (3) 10% aqueous povidone–iodine and non-coated suture, or (4) 10% aqueous povidone–iodine and triclosan-coated suture. Patients and outcome assessors were masked to intervention allocation. The primary outcome was SSI, reported by trained outcome assessors, and presented using adjusted relative risks and 95% CIs. Analysis was by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03700749. Findings Between Dec 10, 2018, and Sept 7, 2020, 5788 patients (3091 in clean-contaminated stratum, 2697 in contaminated or dirty stratum) were randomised (1446 to alcoholic chlorhexidine and non-coated suture, 1446 to alcoholic chlorhexidine and triclosan-coated suture, 1447 to aqueous povidone–iodine and non-coated suture, and 1449 to aqueous povidone–iodine and triclosan-coated suture). 14·0% (810/5788) of patients were children and 66·9% (3873/5788) had emergency surgery. The overall SSI rate was 22·0% (1163/5284; clean-contaminated stratum 15·5% [454/2923], contaminated or dirty stratum 30·0% [709/2361]). For both strata, there was no evidence of a difference in the risk of SSI with alcoholic chlorhexidine versus povidone–iodine (clean-contaminated stratum 15·3% [223/1455] vs 15·7% [231/1468], relative risk 0·97 [95% CI 0·82–1·14]; contaminated or dirty stratum 28·3% [338/1194] vs 31·8% [371/1167], relative risk 0·91 [95% CI 0·81–1·02]), or with triclosan-coated sutures versus non-coated sutures (clean-contaminated stratum 14·7% [215/1459] vs 16·3% [239/1464], relative risk 0·90 [95% CI 0·77–1·06]; contaminated or dirty stratum 29·4% [347/1181] vs 30·7% [362/1180], relative risk 0·98 [95% CI 0·87–1·10]). With both strata combined, there were no differences using alcoholic chlorhexidine or triclosan-coated sutures. Interpretation This trial did not show benefit from 2% alcoholic chlorhexidine skin preparation compared with povidone–iodine, or with triclosan-coated sutures compared with non-coated sutures, in preventing SSI in clean-contaminated or contaminated or dirty surgical wounds. Both interventions are more expensive than alternatives, and these findings do not support recommendations for routine use. Funding National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Unit Grant, BD.

Project description:BackgroundThis study is a systematic literature review of HIV, nutrition, and primary care activity-based costing (ABC) studies conducted in low- and middle-income countries. ABC studies are critical for understanding the quantities and unit costs of the activities and resources for specific cost functions. The results of ABC studies enable governments, funders, and policymakers to utilize costing results to make efficient, cost-effective decisions on how to allocate scarce resources.MethodsWe followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology for systematic literature reviews. Key search terms included: (1) activity-based costing and time-driven activity-based costing, (2) cost of services, (3) HIV interventions OR (4) primary health care. Terms were searched within article titles and abstracts in PubMed, EconLit, and Scopus.Results1,884 abstracts were screened and reduced to 57 articles using exclusion criteria. After a full text review, 16 articles were included in the final data synthesis. Findings were used to classify costs into relevant and common inputs for activity-based costing. All costs were converted to unit cost (cost per patient) and inflated to January 2020 USD. The largest unit cost across nutrition services was training (US$194.16 per patient, 34.6% of total unit cost). The largest unit cost for HIV was antiretroviral therapy (ART) (US$125.41, 71.0%). The largest unit cost for primary care services was human resources (US$84.78, 62.5%). Overall costs per patient for HIV services were US$176.71, US$135.67 for primary care services, and US$561.68 for nutrition services. The costing results presented suggest that spending on HIV exceeds the actual cost of HIV services.ConclusionsThis is the first systematic literature review to summarize the costs of HIV, primary care, and nutrition services across activity-based costing studies. While there was a wide variation in the study designs and economic methods, many of the input cost categories were similar. With the increasing number of costing studies in countries around the world, understanding trends in costs by function and service can lead to greater efficiency in the implementation of HIV, primary care, and nutrition programs.

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess the effect of emergency transportation interventions on the outcome of labor and delivery in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).MethodsEleven databases were searched through December 2019: Medline/PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, EBSCO (PsycINFO and CINAHL), SCIELO, LILACS, JSTOR, POPLINE, Google Scholar, the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Specialized Register, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials. Methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the ROBINS-I tool.ResultsNine studies (three in Asia and six in Africa) were included: one cluster randomized controlled trial, three controlled before-and-after (CBA) studies, four uncontrolled before and after studies, and one case-control study. The means of emergency obstetric transportation evaluated by the studies included bicycle (n = 1) or motorcycle ambulances (n = 3), 4-wheel drive vehicles (n = 3), and formal motor-vehicle ambulances (n = 2). Transportation support was offered within multi-component interventions including financial incentives (n = 1), improved communication (n = 7), and community mobilization (n = 2). Two controlled before-and-after studies that implemented interventions including financial support, three-wheeled motorcycles, and use of mobile phones reported reduction of maternal mortality. One cluster-randomized study which involved community mobilization and strengthening of referral, and transportation, and one controlled before-and-after that implemented free-of-charge, 24-hour, 4 × 4 wheel ambulance and a mobile phone showed reductions in stillbirth, perinatal, and neonatal mortality. Six studies reported increases in facility delivery ranging from 12-50%, and one study showed a 19% reduction in home delivery. There was a significant increase of caesarian sections in two studies; use of motorcycle ambulances compared to car ambulance resulted in reduction in referral delay by 2 to 4.5 hours. Only three included studies had low risk of bias on all domains.ConclusionIntegrating emergency obstetric transportation with complimentary maternal health interventions may reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes and increase access to skilled obstetric services for women in LMICs. The strength of evidence is limited by the paucity of high-quality studies.

Project description:Abstract Background More than half of the children in the world experience some form of interpersonal violence every year. As compared with high‐income countries, policy responses in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) are limited due to resource constraints and paucity of evidence for effective interventions to reduce violence against children in their own contexts, amongst other factors. Objectives The aim of this evidence and gap map (EGM) is to provide an overview of the existing evidence available and to identify gaps in the evidence base on the effectiveness of interventions to reduce violence against children in LMICs. This report covers evidence published in English; a follow‐up study is under preparation focusing on evidence in five additional languages—Arabic, Chinese, French, Portuguese and Spanish. Methods The intervention‐outcome framework for this EGM is based on INSPIRE—Seven Strategies for Ending Violence against Children, published by WHO and other partners in 2016. The seven strategies include implementation and enforcement of laws; norms and values, safe environment; parent–child and caregiver support; income and economic strengthening; response and support services; education and life skills. The search included both academic and grey literature available online. We included impact evaluations and systematic reviews that assessed the effectiveness of interventions to reduce interpersonal violence against children (0–18 years) in LMICs (World Bank, 2018b). Interventions targeting subpopulation of parents, teachers and caregivers of 0–18 years’ age group were also included. A critical appraisal of all included studies was carried out using standardised tools. Results The map includes 152 studies published in English of which 55 are systematic reviews and 97 are impact evaluations. Most studies in the map are from Sub‐Saharan Africa. Education and life skills are the most widely populated intervention area of the map followed by income and economic strengthening interventions. Very few studies measure impact on economic and social outcomes, and few conduct cost‐analysis. Conclusion More studies focusing on low‐income and fragile and conflict‐affected settings (FCS) and studying and reporting on cost‐analysis are required to address gaps in the evidence. Most interventions covered in the literature focused on addressing a wide range of forms of violence and harm, which limited understanding of how and for whom the interventions work in a given context, for specific forms of violence. More impact evaluation studies are required that assess specific forms of violence, gendered effects of interventions and on diverse social groups in a given context, utilising mixed methods.

Dataset Information

Quantifying and reducing statistical uncertainty in sample-based health program costing studies in low- and middle-income countries.

Publications

Quantifying and reducing statistical uncertainty in sample-based health program costing studies in low- and middle-income countries.

Similar Datasets

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