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Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates.

ABSTRACT: The scarcity of country data (e.g. a cancer registry) for the burden of cervical cancer (CC) in low-income countries (LCIs) such as Swaziland remains a huge challenge. Such data are critical to inform local decision-making regarding resource allocation [1]. We aimed to estimate likely cervical cancer incidence in Swaziland using three different methodologies (triangulation), to help better inform local policy guidance regarding likely higher "true" burden and increased resource allocation required for treatment, cervical cancer screening and HPV vaccine implementation.Three methods were applied to estimate CC incidence, namely: 1) application of age-specific CC incidence rates for Southern African region from GLOBOCAN 2012 extrapolated to the 2014 Swaziland female population; 2) a linear regression based model with transformed age-standardised CC incidence against hr-HPV (with and without HIV as a covariate) prevalence among women with normal cervical cytology; and 3) a mathematical model, using a natural history approach based on parameter estimates from various available literature and local survey estimates. We then triangulated estimates and uncertainty from the three models to estimate the most likely CC incidence rate for Swaziland in 2015.The projected incidence estimates for models 1-3 were 69.4 (95% CI: 66.7-72.1), 62.6 per 100,000 (95%CI: 53.7-71.8) and 44.6 per 100,000 (41.5 to 52.1) respectively. Model 2 with HIV prevalence as covariate estimated a higher CC incidence rate estimate of 101.1 per 100,000 (95%CI: 90.3-112.2). The triangulated ('averaged') age-standardized CC incidence based across the 3 models for 2015 was estimated at 69.4 per 100,000 (95% CI: 63.0-77.1) in Swaziland.It is widely accepted that cancer incidence (and in this case CC) is underestimated in settings with poor and lacking registry data. Our findings suggest that the projected burden of CC is higher than that suggested from other sources. Local health policy decisions and decision-makers need to re-assess resource allocation to prevent and treat CC effectively, which is likely to persist given the very high burden of hr-HPV within the country.

SUBMITTER: Ginindza TG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC5992849 | biostudies-other | 2018 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates.

Ginindza Themba G TG Sartorius Benn B

BMC cancer 20180607 1

<h4>Background</h4>The scarcity of country data (e.g. a cancer registry) for the burden of cervical cancer (CC) in low-income countries (LCIs) such as Swaziland remains a huge challenge. Such data are critical to inform local decision-making regarding resource allocation [1]. We aimed to estimate likely cervical cancer incidence in Swaziland using three different methodologies (triangulation), to help better inform local policy guidance regarding likely higher "true" burden and increased resourc ...[more]

PMID: 29879943

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Project description:ImportanceThe United States is experiencing a crisis of opioid overdose. In response, the US Department of Health and Human Services has defined a goal to reduce overdose mortality by 40% by 2022.ObjectiveTo identify specific combinations of 3 interventions (initiating more people to medications for opioid use disorder [MOUD], increasing 6-month retention with MOUD, and increasing naloxone distribution) associated with at least a 40% reduction in opioid overdose in simulated populations.Design, setting, and participantsThis decision analytical model used a dynamic population-level state-transition model to project outcomes over a 2-year horizon. Each intervention scenario was compared with the counterfactual of no intervention in simulated urban and rural communities in Massachusetts. Simulation modeling was used to determine the associations of community-level interventions with opioid overdose rates. The 3 examined interventions were initiation of more people to MOUD, increasing individuals' retention with MOUD, and increasing distribution of naloxone. Data were analyzed from July to November 2020.Main outcomes and measuresReduction in overdose mortality, medication treatment capacity needs, and naloxone needs.ResultsNo single intervention was associated with a 40% reduction in overdose mortality in the simulated communities. Reaching this goal required use of MOUD and naloxone. Achieving a 40% reduction required that 10% to 15% of the estimated OUD population not already receiving MOUD initiate MOUD every month, with 45% to 60%% retention for at least 6 months, and increased naloxone distribution. In all feasible settings and scenarios, attaining a 40% reduction in overdose mortality required that in every month, at least 10% of the population with OUD who were not currently receiving treatment initiate an MOUD.Conclusions and relevanceIn this modeling study, only communities with increased capacity for treating with MOUD and increased MOUD retention experienced a 40% decrease in overdose mortality. These findings could provide a framework for developing community-level interventions to reduce opioid overdose death.

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Dataset Information

Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates.

Publications

Projected cervical Cancer incidence in Swaziland using three methods and local survey estimates.

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