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A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California.

ABSTRACT: Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California. Using only uniform parameters in the simulator, we find strikingly good agreement of the long-term shaking hazard compared with the California model. This ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides a new alternative approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard.

SUBMITTER: Shaw BE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6105231 | biostudies-other | 2018 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California.

Shaw Bruce E BE Milner Kevin R KR Field Edward H EH Richards-Dinger Keith K Gilchrist Jacquelyn J JJ Dieterich James H JH Jordan Thomas H TH

Science advances 20180822 8

Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for Cal ...[more]

PMID: 30140746

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Dataset Information

A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California.

Publications

A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California.

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