Dataset Information

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis. METHODS:We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indicators were estimated at 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of follow-up comparing diagnostic periods. RESULTS:Comparing diagnostic periods: I) the probability of death due to other causes did not change; II) the 20-year survival for women diagnosed ? 49 years increased 13% (1995-2004 = 68%; 1985-1994:55%), whereas their probability of death due to breast cancer decreased at the same pace (1995-2004 = 29%; 1985-1994 = 42%); III) at 10 years of follow-up, decreases in the probabilities of death due to breast cancer across age groups switched from 11 to 17% resulting in a risk of death reduction of 19% after adjusting by stage. During 1995-2004, the stage-specific 10-year probabilities of death due to breast cancer switched from: 3-6% in stage I, 18-20% in stage II, 34-46% in stage III and surpassed 70% in stage IV beyond 5 years after diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS:In our study, women diagnosed with breast cancer had higher long-term probability to die from breast cancer than from other causes. The improvements in treatment and the lead-time bias in detecting cancer in an early stage resulted in a reduction of 19% in the risk of death between diagnostic periods.

SUBMITTER: Cleries R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6153860 | biostudies-other | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

Clèries R R Ameijide A A Buxó M M Martínez J M JM Marcos-Gragera R R Vilardell M-L ML Carulla M M Yasui Y Y Vilardell M M Espinàs J A JA Borràs J M JM Galceran J J Izquierdo À À

Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico 20180306 10

<h4>Background</h4>We provide population-based long-term survival indicators of breast cancer patients by quantifying the observed survival, and the probabilities of death due to breast cancer and to other causes by age and tumor stage at diagnosis.<h4>Methods</h4>We included a total of 10,195 female patients diagnosed before 85 years with invasive primary breast cancer in Girona and Tarragona during the periods 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and followed-up until December 31st 2014. The survival indic ...[more]

PMID: 29511947

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Project description:BackgroundSince the 1980s, Spain experienced two decades of sharply increasing breast cancer incidence. Declines in breast cancer incidence have recently been reported in many developed countries. We examined whether a similar downturn might have taken place in Spain in recent years.MethodsCases of invasive female breast cancer were drawn from all population-based Spanish cancer registries that had at least 10 years of uninterrupted registration over the period 1980-2004. Overall and age-specific changes in incidence rates were evaluated using change-point Poisson models, which allow for accurate detection and estimation of trend changes. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsA total of 80,453 incident cases of invasive breast cancer were identified. Overall age- and registry-adjusted incidence rates rose by 2.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.7% to 3.1%) annually during the 1980s and 1990s; there was a statistically significant change in this trend in 2001 (95% CI = 1998 to 2004; P value for the existence of a change point <.001), after which incidence declined annually by 3.0% (95% CI = 1.8% to 4.1%). This trend differed by age group: There was a steady increase in incidence for women younger than 45 years, an abrupt downturn in 2001 for women aged 45-64 years, and a gradual leveling off in 1995 for women aged 65 years or older. Separate analyses for registries that had at least 15 years of uninterrupted registration detected a statistically significant interruption of the previous upward trend in breast cancer incidence in provinces that had aggressive breast cancer screening programs and high screening participation rates, including Navarra (change point = 1991, P < .001), Granada (change point = 2002, P = .003), Bizkaia (change point = 1998, P < .001), Gipuzkoa (change point = 1998, P = .001), and Araba (change point = 1997, P = .002).ConclusionsThe recent downturn in breast cancer incidence among Spanish women older than 45 years is best explained by a period effect linked to screening saturation.

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Dataset Information

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

Publications

Long-term crude probabilities of death among breast cancer patients by age and stage: a population-based survival study in Northeastern Spain (Girona-Tarragona 1985-2004).

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