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Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular. METHODS:To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time epidemiology network absorbs 6000 ILI reports annually, one or two orders of magnitude more than typical surveillance systems. A real-time online ILI indicator was developed to inform clinicians of the daily ILI activity in HCMC. RESULTS:From August 2009 to December 2015, 63 clinics were enrolled and 36 920 SMS reports were received, covering approximately 1.7M outpatient visits. Approximately 10.6% of outpatients met the ILI case definition. ILI activity in HCMC exhibited strong nonannual dynamics with a dominant periodicity of 206 days. This was confirmed by time series decomposition, stepwise regression, and a forecasting exercise showing that median forecasting errors are 30%-40% lower when using a 206-day cycle. In ILI patients from whom nasopharyngeal swabs were taken, 31.2% were positive for influenza. There was no correlation between the ILI time series and the time series of influenza, influenza A, or influenza B (all P > 0.15). CONCLUSION:This suggests, for the first time, that a nonannual cycle may be an essential driver of respiratory disease dynamics in the tropics. An immunological interference hypothesis is discussed as a potential underlying mechanism.

SUBMITTER: Lam HM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6185894 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.

Lam Ha Minh HM Wesolowski Amy A Hung Nguyen Thanh NT Nguyen Tran Dang TD Nhat Nguyen Thi Duy NTD Todd Stacy S Vinh Dao Nguyen DN Vy Nguyen Ha Thao NHT Thao Tran Thi Nhu TTN Thanh Nguyen Thi Le NTL Tin Phan Tri PT Minh Ngo Ngoc Quang NNQ Bryant Juliet E JE Buckee Caroline O CO Ngoc Tran Van TV Chau Nguyen Van Vinh NVV Thwaites Guy E GE Farrar Jeremy J Tam Dong Thi Hoai DTH Vinh Ha H Boni Maciej F MF

Influenza and other respiratory viruses 20180821 6

<h4>Background</h4>In temperate and subtropical climates, respiratory diseases exhibit seasonal peaks in winter. In the tropics, with no winter, peak timings are irregular.<h4>Methods</h4>To obtain a detailed picture of influenza-like illness (ILI) patterns in the tropics, we established an mHealth study in community clinics in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC). During 2009-2015, clinics reported daily case numbers via SMS, with a subset performing molecular diagnostics for influenza virus. This real-time ...[more]

PMID: 30044029

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Project description:The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for determining their effect on the seasonality of influenza and RSV.

Project description:UnlabelledNorovirus is a highly transmissible infectious agent that causes epidemic gastroenteritis in susceptible children and adults. Norovirus infections can be severe and can be initiated from an exceptionally small number of viral particles. Detailed genome sequence data are useful for tracking norovirus transmission and evolution. To address this need, we have developed a whole-genome deep-sequencing method that generates entire genome sequences from small amounts of clinical specimens. This novel approach employs an algorithm for reverse transcription and PCR amplification primer design using all of the publically available norovirus sequence data. Deep sequencing and de novo assembly were used to generate norovirus genomes from a large set of diarrheal patients attending three hospitals in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, over a 2.5-year period. Positive-selection analysis and direct examination of protein changes in the virus over time identified codons in the regions encoding proteins VP1, p48 (NS1-2), and p22 (NS4) under positive selection and expands the known targets of norovirus evolutionary pressure.ImportanceThe high transmissibility and rapid evolutionary rate of norovirus, combined with a short-lived host immune responses, are thought to be the reasons why the virus causes the majority of pediatric viral diarrhea cases. The evolutionary patterns of this RNA virus have been described in detail for only a portion of the virus genome and never for a virus from a detailed urban tropical setting. We provide a detailed sequence description of the noroviruses circulating in three Ho Chi Minh City hospitals over a 2.5-year period. This study identified patterns of virus change in known sites of host immune response and identified three additional regions of the virus genome under selection that were not previously recognized. In addition, the method described here provides a robust full-genome sequencing platform for community-based virus surveillance.

Dataset Information

Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.

Publications

Nonannual seasonality of influenza-like illness in a tropical urban setting.

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