Dataset Information

The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Rabies is a significant public health problem in China. Previous spatial epidemiological studies have helped understand the epidemiology of animal and human rabies in China. However, quantification of effects derived from relevant factors was insufficient and complex spatial interactions were not well articulated, which may lead to non-negligible bias. In this study, we aimed to quantify the role of socio-economic and climate factors in the spatial distribution of human rabies to support decision making pertaining to rabies control in China. METHODS:We conducted a multivariate analysis of human rabies in China with explicit consideration for spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. The panel of 20,368 cases reported between 2005 and 2013 and their socio-economic and climate factors was implemented in regression models. Several significant covariates were extracted, including the longitude, the average temperature, the distance to county center, the distance to the road network and the distance to the nearest rabies case. The GMM was adopted to provide unbiased estimation with respect to heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. RESULTS:The analysis explained the inferred relationships between the counts of cases aggregated to 271 spatially-defined cells and the explanatory variables. The results suggested that temperature, longitude, the distance to county centers and the distance to the road network are positively associated with the local incidence of human rabies while the distance to newly occurred rabies cases has a negative correlation. With heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation taken into consideration, the estimation of regression models performed better. CONCLUSIONS:It was found that climatic and socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the spread of human rabies in China as they continuously affect the living environments of humans and animals, which critically impacts on how timely local citizens can gain access to post-exposure prophylactic services. Moreover, through comparisons between traditional regression models and the aggregation model that allows for heterogeneity and spatial effects, we demonstrated the validity and advantage of the aggregation model. It outperformed the existing models and decreased the estimation bias brought by omission of the spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependence effects. Statistical results are readily translated into public health policy takeaways.

SUBMITTER: Guo D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6198482 | biostudies-other | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China.

Guo Danhuai D Yin Wenwu W Yu Hongjie H Thill Jean-Claude JC Yang Weishi W Chen Feng F Wang Deqiang D

BMC infectious diseases 20181022 1

<h4>Background</h4>Rabies is a significant public health problem in China. Previous spatial epidemiological studies have helped understand the epidemiology of animal and human rabies in China. However, quantification of effects derived from relevant factors was insufficient and complex spatial interactions were not well articulated, which may lead to non-negligible bias. In this study, we aimed to quantify the role of socio-economic and climate factors in the spatial distribution of human rabies ...[more]

PMID: 30348094

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Project description:BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) occurs widely in Northeastern China, but the mechanism and interactions of meteorological and socio-economic factors on the transmission of HFRS are still largely unknown.ObjectiveWe explored the effects of socioeconomic-environmental factors on the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Northeastern China. Specifically, the relative importance and contribution rates (CR) of determinants of HFRS were identified by boosted regression tree and variance partitioning analysis, respectively. Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to explain the roles of climatic and socio-economic factors in the transmission of HFRS. And a negative binomial regression was used to identify the risk effect between monthly meteorological variables and HFRS with 0-6 months lags in Northeastern China.ResultsOver the past decades, the high-risk areas of HFRS were mainly concentrated in the northern and eastern areas of Northeastern China. Additionally, HFRS mainly presented a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2019 in most areas of Northeastern China, but slightly increased in the cities of Daqing, Songyuan, Baicheng, and Tonghua. The temporal dynamics of the incidence of HFRS were primarily explained by the variations in population density (CR = 27.30%), climate (CR = 13.30%), and economic condition(CR = 1.90%). The spatial variations of HFRS were medicated by the climate (CR = 16.95%) and population density (CR = 9.45%) and medical health care (CR = 2.25%). The SEM models indicated that humid and warm climates were conducive to the incidence and increase of HFRS, but the improvement in education and an increase in population density reduced the transmission of HFRS.ConclusionClimate and population density appeared to mediate the spatio-temporal variation of HFRS in Northeastern China. These findings may provide valuable empirical evidence for the management of HFRS in endemic areas.

Project description:Despite its high ecological importance, the commensal interactions at community level are poorly studied. In tropical dry forests (TDF) there is a great diversity of species adapted to the high seasonality that characterizes them; however, little is known regarding how the spatial and temporal availability of resources generates changes in the pattern of commensal interactions. We experimentally studied changes in the diversity, composition, and pattern of interactions in spatio-temporal associations between the saproxylophagous beetles and their host trees in a TDF in Morelos, Mexico. A total of 65 host tree species were selected, from which 16 wood sections were obtained per species. These sections were exposed in the field to allow oviposition by the cerambycids under four different (spatio-temporal) treatments. We analyzed the network structure and generated indices at species level (i.e., specialization, species strength, and effective partners) and those related to physical characteristics of the wood (hardness and degradation rate) and the cerambycids (body size). In total, 1,323 individuals of 57 species of cerambycids emerged. Our results showed that, independently of the space and time, the network presented a nested and modular structure, with a high specialization degree and a high turnover of cerambycid species and their interactions. In general, we found that the cerambycids are mostly associated with softwood species with a lower decomposition rate of wood, as well as with the most abundant host species. The commensalistic interactions between the cerambycids and their host trees are highly specialized but are not spatio-temporally static. The high turnover in the interactions is caused by the emergence patterns of cerambycids, which seem to restrict their use to certain species. The knowledge of the spatio-temporal variation in Cerambycidae-host tree interactions allows us to predict how environmental and structural changes in the habitat can modify the species ensemble, and therefore its interactions.

Dataset Information

The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China.

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The role of socioeconomic and climatic factors in the spatio-temporal variation of human rabies in China.

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