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Derivation and Validation of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Acute Kidney Injury after Cardiac Surgery.

ABSTRACT: Machine learning approaches were introduced for better or comparable predictive ability than statistical analysis to predict postoperative outcomes. We sought to compare the performance of machine learning approaches with that of logistic regression analysis to predict acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. We retrospectively reviewed 2010 patients who underwent open heart surgery and thoracic aortic surgery. Baseline medical condition, intraoperative anesthesia, and surgery-related data were obtained. The primary outcome was postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) defined according to the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes criteria. The following machine learning techniques were used: decision tree, random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machine, neural network classifier, and deep learning. The performance of these techniques was compared with that of logistic regression analysis regarding the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). During the first postoperative week, AKI occurred in 770 patients (38.3%). The best performance regarding AUC was achieved by the gradient boosting machine to predict the AKI of all stages (0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.75?0.80) or stage 2 or 3 AKI. The AUC of logistic regression analysis was 0.69 (95% CI 0.66?0.72). Decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine showed similar performance to logistic regression. In our comprehensive comparison of machine learning approaches with logistic regression analysis, gradient boosting technique showed the best performance with the highest AUC and lower error rate. We developed an Internet?based risk estimator which could be used for real-time processing of patient data to estimate the risk of AKI at the end of surgery.

SUBMITTER: Lee HC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6210196 | biostudies-other | 2018 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Derivation and Validation of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Acute Kidney Injury after Cardiac Surgery.

Lee Hyung-Chul HC Yoon Hyun-Kyu HK Nam Karam K Cho Youn Joung YJ Kim Tae Kyong TK Kim Won Ho WH Bahk Jae-Hyon JH

Journal of clinical medicine 20181003 10

Machine learning approaches were introduced for better or comparable predictive ability than statistical analysis to predict postoperative outcomes. We sought to compare the performance of machine learning approaches with that of logistic regression analysis to predict acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery. We retrospectively reviewed 2010 patients who underwent open heart surgery and thoracic aortic surgery. Baseline medical condition, intraoperative anesthesia, and surgery-related data wer ...[more]

PMID: 30282956

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Project description:ObjectiveWe aimed to develop and validate a predictive machine learning (ML) model for cardiac surgery associated with acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) based on a multicenter randomized control trial (RCT) and a Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) dataset.MethodsThis was a subanalysis from a completed RCT approved by the Ethics Committee of Fuwai Hospital in Beijing, China (NCT03782350). Data from Fuwai Hospital were randomly assigned, with 80% for the training dataset and 20% for the testing dataset. The data from three other centers were used for the external validation dataset. Furthermore, the MIMIC-IV dataset was also utilized to validate the performance of the predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC), the precision-recall curve (PR-AUC), and the calibration brier score were applied to evaluate the performance of the traditional logistic regression (LR) and eleven ML algorithms. Additionally, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) interpreter was used to explain the potential risk factors for CSA-AKI.ResultA total of 6495 eligible patients undergoing cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) were eventually included in this study, 2416 of whom were from Fuwai Hospital (Beijing), for model development, 562 from three other cardiac centers in China, and 3517 from the MIMICIV dataset, were used, respectively, for external validation. The CatBoostClassifier algorithms outperformed other models, with excellent discrimination and calibration performance for the development, as well as the MIMIC-IV, datasets. In addition, the CatBoostClassifier achieved ROC-AUCs of 0.85, 0.67, and 0.77 and brier scores of 0.14, 0.19, and 0.16 in the testing, external, and MIMIC-IV datasets, respectively. Moreover, the utmost important risk factor, the N-terminal brain sodium peptide (NT-proBNP), was confirmed by the LASSO method in the feature section process. Notably, the SHAP explainer identified that the preoperative blood urea nitrogen level, prothrombin time, serum creatinine level, total bilirubin level, and age were positively correlated with CSA-AKI; preoperative platelets level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, albumin level, and body weight were negatively associated with CSA-AKI.ConclusionsThe CatBoostClassifier algorithms outperformed other ML models in the discrimination and calibration of CSA-AKI prediction cardiac surgery with CPB, based on a multicenter RCT and MIMIC-IV dataset. Moreover, the preoperative NT-proBNP level was confirmed to be strongly related to CSA-AKI.

Project description:BackgroundCardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is a major complication that results in increased morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery. Most established prediction models are limited to the analysis of nonlinear relationships and fail to fully consider intraoperative variables, which represent the acute response to surgery. Therefore, this study utilized an artificial intelligence-based machine learning approach thorough perioperative data-driven learning to predict CSA-AKI.MethodsA total of 671 patients undergoing cardiac surgery from August 2016 to August 2018 were enrolled. AKI following cardiac surgery was defined according to criteria from Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO). The variables used for analysis included demographic characteristics, clinical condition, preoperative biochemistry data, preoperative medication, and intraoperative variables such as time-series hemodynamic changes. The machine learning methods used included logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGboost), and ensemble (RF + XGboost). The performance of these models was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). We also utilized SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) values to explain the prediction model.ResultsDevelopment of CSA-AKI was noted in 163 patients (24.3%) during the first postoperative week. Regarding the efficacy of the single model that most accurately predicted the outcome, RF exhibited the greatest AUC (0.839, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.772-0.898), whereas the AUC (0.843, 95% CI 0.778-0.899) of ensemble model (RF + XGboost) was even greater than that of the RF model alone. The top 3 most influential features in the RF importance matrix plot were intraoperative urine output, units of packed red blood cells (pRBCs) transfused during surgery, and preoperative hemoglobin level. The SHAP summary plot was used to illustrate the positive or negative effects of the top 20 features attributed to the RF. We also used the SHAP dependence plot to explain how a single feature affects the output of the RF prediction model.ConclusionsIn this study, machine learning methods were successfully established to predict CSA-AKI, which determines risks following cardiac surgery, enabling the optimization of postoperative treatment strategies to minimize the postoperative complications following cardiac surgeries.

Project description:BackgroundCardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI) is a common complication following cardiac surgery. Early prediction of CSA-AKI is of great significance for improving patients' prognoses. The aim of this study is to systematically evaluate the predictive performance of machine learning models for CSA-AKI.MethodsCochrane Library, PubMed, EMBASE, and Web of Science were searched from inception to 18 March 2022. Risk of bias assessment was performed using PROBAST. Rsoftware (version 4.1.1) was used to calculate the accuracy and C-index of CSA-AKI prediction. The importance of CSA-AKI prediction was defined according to the frequency of related factors in the models.ResultsThere were 38 eligible studies included, with a total of 255,943 patients and 60 machine learning models. The models mainly included Logistic Regression (n = 34), Neural Net (n = 6), Support Vector Machine (n = 4), Random Forest (n = 6), Extreme Gradient Boosting (n = 3), Decision Tree (n = 3), Gradient Boosted Machine (n = 1), COX regression (n = 1), κNeural Net (n = 1), and Naïve Bayes (n = 1), of which 51 models with intact recording in the training set and 17 in the validating set. Variables with the highest predicting frequency included Logistic Regression, Neural Net, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest. The C-index and accuracy wer 0.76 (0.740, 0.780) and 0.72 (0.70, 0.73), respectively, in the training set, and 0.79 (0.75, 0.83) and 0.73 (0.71, 0.74), respectively, in the test set.ConclusionThe machine learning-based model is effective for the early prediction of CSA-AKI. More machine learning methods based on noninvasive or minimally invasive predictive indicators are needed to improve the predictive performance and make accurate predictions of CSA-AKI. Logistic regression remains currently the most commonly applied model in CSA-AKI prediction, although it is not the one with the best performance. There are other models that would be more effective, such as NNET and XGBoost.Systematic review registrationhttps://www.crd.york.ac.uk/; review registration ID: CRD42022345259.

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Derivation and Validation of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Acute Kidney Injury after Cardiac Surgery.

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Derivation and Validation of Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Acute Kidney Injury after Cardiac Surgery.

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