Derivation and validation of a model to predict acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery in patients with normal renal function.
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ABSTRACT: Background
The study aimed to construct a clinical model based on preoperative data for predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) following cardiac surgery in patients with normal renal function.Methods
A total of 22,348 consecutive patients with normal renal function undergoing cardiac surgery were enrolled. Among them, 15,701 were randomly selected for the training group and the remaining for the validation group. To develop a model visualized as a nomogram for predicting AKI, logistic regression was performed with variables selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical value of the model were evaluated.Results
The incidence of AKI was 25.2% in the training group. The new model consisted of nine preoperative variables, including age, male gender, left ventricular ejection fraction, hypertension, hemoglobin, uric acid, hypomagnesemia, and oral renin-angiotensin system inhibitor and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug within 1 week before surgery. The model had a good performance in the validation group. The discrimination was good with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.740 (95% confidence interval, 0.726-0.753). The calibration plot indicated excellent agreement between the model prediction and actual observations. Decision curve analysis also showed that the model was clinically useful.Conclusions
The new model was constructed based on nine easily available preoperative clinical data characteristics for predicting AKI following cardiac surgery in patients with normal kidney function, which may help treatment decision-making, and rational utilization of medical resources.
SUBMITTER: Hu P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8354173 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundCardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. We examined the utility of combining biomarkers of kidney function loss (serum cystatin C) and kidney tubular damage (urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin [NGAL] and Kidney Injury Molecule-1 [KIM-1]) for the prediction of post-cardiac surgery AKI.MethodsSingle-center prospective cohort study of 106 adults undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting and/or valve surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). Primary outcome was postoperative in-hospital AKI defined by serum creatinine (SCr)-Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes criteria. Biomarkers were measured preoperatively, 6 hours after CPB and on postoperative days (PODs) 1 to 4.ResultsA total of 23 subjects (21.7%) developed AKI. After adjusting for preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction, body mass index >30 kg/m2, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2, the combination of peak serum cystatin C and peak urine KIM-1/creatinine (Cr) (6 hours post-CPB to POD 1) above optimal cutoff significantly associated with postoperative AKI (odds ratio [OR]: 5.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31-21.67; P = 0.020). This biomarker combination significantly improved the performance of the clinical model for the prediction of postoperative AKI (area under the curve [AUC]: 0.77, 95% CI: 0.65-0.90 for the clinical model alone versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.73-0.93 for the clinical model with the addition of biomarker data, P = 0.049).ConclusionsCombining biomarkers of postoperative kidney function loss and postoperative kidney tubular damage significantly improved prediction of in-hospital AKI following cardiac surgery. Future large, multicenter studies are warranted to assess whether panels of biomarkers reflecting distinct pathobiology can be used to guide interventions and improve short- and long-term outcomes in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.
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Project description:Acute kidney injury (AKI) complicates recovery from cardiac surgery in up to 30 % of patients, injures and impairs the function of the brain, lungs, and gut, and places patients at a 5-fold increased risk of death during hospitalization. Renal ischemia, reperfusion, inflammation, hemolysis, oxidative stress, cholesterol emboli, and toxins contribute to the development and progression of AKI. Preventive strategies are limited, but current evidence supports maintenance of renal perfusion and intravascular volume while avoiding venous congestion, administration of balanced salt as opposed to high-chloride intravenous fluids, and the avoidance or limitation of cardiopulmonary bypass exposure. AKI that requires renal replacement therapy occurs in 2-5 % of patients following cardiac surgery and is associated with 50 % mortality. For those who recover from renal replacement therapy or even mild AKI, progression to chronic kidney disease in the ensuing months and years is more likely than for those who do not develop AKI. Cardiac surgery continues to be a popular clinical model to evaluate novel therapeutics, off-label use of existing medications, and nonpharmacologic treatments for AKI, since cardiac surgery is fairly common, typically elective, provides a relatively standardized insult, and patients remain hospitalized and monitored following surgery. More efficient and time-sensitive methods to diagnose AKI are imperative to reduce this negative outcome. The discovery and validation of renal damage biomarkers should in time supplant creatinine-based criteria for the clinical diagnosis of AKI.
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