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Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Japan has a rapidly decreasing population, with ultra-low fertility and extremely fast aging. The rapid dynamics constitute a warning that change in the industrial structure may be unable to meet the changing pace of age-dependent demand. METHODS:The present study estimated the supply-demand imbalance by industrial sector, and we investigated the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. To quantify the demographic burden of different industry experts, we employed the dependency ratio to calculate the supply and demand of each industrial sector and occupation. RESULTS:We identified an expected excess of demand in the health-care sector; the growth in that deficiency is likely to continue until 2045, when the elderly population is likely to reach a peak. By contrast, oversupply is expected in the education and construction sectors. An overall shortage of full-time workers is likely to continue until 2050, when we predict that Japan will lack 3.1-9.3 million full-time workers to satisfy the baseline demand level. CONCLUSIONS:Considering that the imbalance is evident over different sectors, interministerial regulation of occupational choice may need to be imposed, e.g., by drastically changing student sizes in different area of higher education. Japan may have to decide to downgrade its social services and potentially consider increasing immigrant workers.

SUBMITTER: Kishida N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6211503 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan.

Kishida Naoki N Nishiura Hiroshi H

Theoretical biology & medical modelling 20181101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Japan has a rapidly decreasing population, with ultra-low fertility and extremely fast aging. The rapid dynamics constitute a warning that change in the industrial structure may be unable to meet the changing pace of age-dependent demand.<h4>Methods</h4>The present study estimated the supply-demand imbalance by industrial sector, and we investigated the effectiveness of possible countermeasures. To quantify the demographic burden of different industry experts, we employed the ...[more]

PMID: 30382893

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Project description:In recent years, the environmental problems caused by excessive carbon emissions from energy sources have become increasingly serious, which not only aggravates the climate change caused by the greenhouse effect but also seriously restricts the sustainable development of Chinese economy. An attempt is made in this paper to use energy consumption method and input-output method to study the carbon emission structure of China's energy system and industry in 2015 from two perspectives, namely China's energy supply side and energy demand side, by taking into account the two factors of energy invest in gross capital formation and export. The results show that neglecting these two factors will lead to underestimation of intermediate use carbon emissions and overestimation of final use carbon emissions. On energy supply side, the carbon emission structure of China's energy system is still dominated by high-carbon energy (raw coal, coke, diesel, and fuel oil, etc.), accounting for more than 70% of total energy carbon emissions; on the contrary, the natural gas such as clean energy accounts for only 3.45% of total energy carbon emissions, indicating that the energy consumption structure optimization and emission reduction gap of China's energy supply side are still substantial. On energy demand side, the final use (direct consumption by residents and government) produces less carbon emissions, while the intermediate use (production by enterprises) produces more than 90% of the total energy carbon emissions. Fossil energy, power sector, heavy industry, chemical industry, and transportation belong to industries with larger carbon emissions and lower carbon emission efficiency, while agriculture, construction, light industry, and service belong to industries with fewer carbon emissions and higher carbon emission efficiency. This means that the optimization of industrial structure is conducive to slowing down the growth of energy carbon emissions on the demand side.

Project description:ObjectivesTo identify spatial disparities and demographic characteristics of short stature, we analysed the prevalence of short stature collected in a nationwide health survey.SettingsData were obtained from the 2014 Chinese National Survey on Students Constitution and Health (a cross-sectional study of China). Participants came from 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities (except Tibet, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan).ParticipantsThere were 213 795 Han school children between 7 and 18 years old enrolled in our study. All participants were sampled by stratified cluster.Primary and secondary outcome measuresShort stature; Chinese and WHO age-specific and gender-specific height growth references were used for short stature assessment.ResultsThe age-standardised and age-gender-standardised prevalence of short stature nationwide was 3.70% and 2.69% according to Chinese and WHO growth references, respectively. The short stature prevalence differed significantly among age groups, urban and rural areas, and regions with different socioeconomic development levels (all p<0.0001). The prevalence was 2.23% in urban versus 5.12% in rural areas (p<0.001). The prevalence was 2.60% in developed, 3.72% in intermediately developed, and 4.69% in underdeveloped regions (p<0.0001). These values were all according to China's growth reference, but similar patterns were observed on prevalence based on the WHO reference. The spatial distribution of prevalence of short stature presented a clustered pattern. Moran's I value was 0.474 (p<0.001) and 0.478 (p<0.001) according to the Chinese and WHO growth references, respectively. The southwest part of China showed a higher prevalence of short stature, whereas lower prevalence of short stature was observed mainly in the northeast part of China.ConclusionsThere is an appreciably high prevalence of short stature in rural, underdeveloped areas of China. There are high prevalence spatial clusters of short stature in southwestern China. This provides corroborating evidence for a tailored strategy on short stature prevention and reduction in special areas.

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Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan.

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Demographic supply-demand imbalance in industrial structure in the super-aged nation Japan.

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