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A risk score system to timely manage treatment in Crohn's disease: a cohort study.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Clinical severity and intestinal lesions of Crohn's disease (CD) usually progress over time and require a step up adjustment of the therapy either to prevent or to treat complications. The aim of the study was to develop a simple risk scoring system to assess in individual CD patients the risk of disease progression and the need for more intensive treatment and monitoring. METHODS:Prospective cohort study (January 2002-September 2014) including 160 CD patients (93 female, median age 31 years; disease behavior (B)1 25%, B2 55.6%, B3 19.4%; location (L)1 61%, L3 31.9%, L2 6%; L4 0.6%; perianal disease 28.8%) seen at 6-12-month interval. Median follow-up 7.9 years (IQR: 4.3-10.5 years). Poisson models were used to evaluate predictors, at each clinical assessment, of having the following outcomes at the subsequent clinical assessment a) use of steroids; b) start of azathioprine; c) start of anti-TNF-? drugs; d) need of surgery. For each outcome 32 variables, including demographic and clinical characteristics of patients and assessment of CD intestinal lesions and complications, were evaluated as potential predictors. The predictors included in the model were chosen by a backward selection. Risk scores were calculated taking for each predictor the integer part of the Poisson model parameter. RESULTS:Considering 1464 clinical assessments 12 independent risk factors were identified, CD lesions, age at diagnosis ?50, presence of inflammatory markers, no previous surgery or presence of termino-terminal anastomosis, current use of corticosteroid, no corticosteroid at first flare-up. Six of these predicted steroids use (score 0-9), three to start azathioprine (score 0-4); three to start anti-TNF-? drugs (score 0-4); six need of surgery (score 0-11). The predicted percentage risk to be treated with surgery within one year since the referral assessment varied from 1 to 28%; with azathioprine from 3 to 13%; with anti-TNF-? drugs from 2 to 15%. CONCLUSIONS:These scores may provide a useful clinical tool for clinicians in the prognostic assessment and treatment adjustment of Crohn's disease in any individual patient.

SUBMITTER: Pallotta N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6219027 | biostudies-other | 2018 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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A risk score system to timely manage treatment in Crohn's disease: a cohort study.

Pallotta Nadia N Vincoli Giuseppina G Pezzotti Patrizio P Giovannone Maurizio M Gigliozzi Alessandro A Badiali Danilo D Vernia Piero P Corazziari Enrico Stefano ES

BMC gastroenterology 20181106 1

<h4>Background</h4>Clinical severity and intestinal lesions of Crohn's disease (CD) usually progress over time and require a step up adjustment of the therapy either to prevent or to treat complications. The aim of the study was to develop a simple risk scoring system to assess in individual CD patients the risk of disease progression and the need for more intensive treatment and monitoring.<h4>Methods</h4>Prospective cohort study (January 2002-September 2014) including 160 CD patients (93 fema ...[more]

PMID: 30400823

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Project description:Identification of blood biomarkers that prospectively predict progression of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection to tuberculosis disease might lead to interventions that combat the tuberculosis epidemic. We aimed to assess whether global gene expression measured in whole blood of healthy people allowed identification of prospective signatures of risk of active tuberculosis disease. RESULTS:Between July 6, 2005, and April 23, 2007, we enrolled 6363 from the ACS study and 4466 from independent South African and Gambian cohorts. 46 progressors and 107 matched controls were identified in the ACS cohort. A 16 gene signature of risk was identified. The signature predicted tuberculosis progression with a sensitivity of 66Â·1% (95% CI 63Â·2â68Â·9) and a specificity of 80Â·6% (79Â·2â82Â·0) in the 12 months preceding tuberculosis diagnosis. The risk signature was validated in an untouched group of adolescents (p=0Â·018 for RNA sequencing and p=0Â·0095 for qRT-PCR) and in the independent South African and Gambian cohorts (p values <0Â·0001 by qRT-PCR) with a sensitivity of 53Â·7% (42Â·6â64Â·3) and a specificity of 82Â·8% (76Â·7â86) in 12 months preceding tuberculosis. Interpretation: The whole blood tuberculosis risk signature prospectively identified people at risk of developing active tuberculosis, opening the possibility for targeted intervention to prevent the disease. In this prospective cohort study, we followed up healthy, South African adolescents aged 12â18 years from the adolescent cohort study (ACS) who were infected with M tuberculosis for 2 years. We collected blood samples from study participants every 6 months and monitored the adolescents for progression to tuberculosis disease. A prospective signature of risk was derived from whole blood RNA sequencing data by comparing participants who developed active tuberculosis disease (progressors) with those who remained healthy (matched controls). After adaptation to multiplex qRT-PCR, the signature was used to predict tuberculosis disease in untouched adolescent samples and in samples from independent cohorts of South African and Gambian adult progressors and controls. Participants of the independent cohorts were household contacts of adults with active pulmonary tuberculosis disease.

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A risk score system to timely manage treatment in Crohn's disease: a cohort study.

Publications

A risk score system to timely manage treatment in Crohn's disease: a cohort study.

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