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Evaluating associations between the benefits and risks of drug therapy in type 2 diabetes: a joint modeling approach.

ABSTRACT: Objective:Precision medicine drug therapy seeks to maximize efficacy and minimize harm for individual patients. This will be difficult if drug response and side effects are positively associated, meaning that patients likely to respond best are at increased risk of side effects. We applied joint longitudinal-survival models to evaluate associations between drug response (longitudinal outcome) and the risk of side effects (survival outcome) for patients initiating type 2 diabetes therapy. Study design and setting:Participants were randomized to metformin (MFN), sulfonylurea (SU), or thiazolidinedione (TZD) therapy in the A Diabetes Outcome Progression Trial (ADOPT) drug efficacy trial (n=4,351). Joint models were parameterized for 1) current HbA1c response (change from baseline in HbA1c) and 2) cumulative HbA1c response (total HbA1c change). Results:With MFN, greater HbA1c response did not increase the risk of gastrointestinal events (HR per 1% absolute greater current response 0.82 [95% CI 0.67, 1.01]; HR per 1% higher cumulative response 0.90 [95% CI 0.81, 1.00]). With SU, greater current response was associated with an increased risk of hypoglycemia (HR 1.41 [95% CI 1.04, 1.91]). With TZD, greater response was associated with an increased risk of edema (current HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.05, 2.01]; cumulative 1.22 [95% CI 1.07, 1.38]) but not fracture. Conclusion:Joint modeling provides a useful framework to evaluate the association between response to a drug and the risk of developing side effects. There may be great potential for widespread application of joint modeling to evaluate the risks and benefits of both new and established medications.

SUBMITTER: Dennis JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6298877 | biostudies-other | 2018

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Evaluating associations between the benefits and risks of drug therapy in type 2 diabetes: a joint modeling approach.

Dennis John M JM Shields Beverley M BM Jones Angus G AG Pearson Ewan R ER Hattersley Andrew T AT Henley William E WE

Clinical epidemiology 20181214

<h4>Objective</h4>Precision medicine drug therapy seeks to maximize efficacy and minimize harm for individual patients. This will be difficult if drug response and side effects are positively associated, meaning that patients likely to respond best are at increased risk of side effects. We applied joint longitudinal-survival models to evaluate associations between drug response (longitudinal outcome) and the risk of side effects (survival outcome) for patients initiating type 2 diabetes therapy. ...[more]

PMID: 30588118

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Project description:BackgroundIn view of evidence that statin therapy increases risk of diabetes, the balance of benefit and risk of these drugs in primary prevention has become controversial. We undertook an analysis of participants from the JUPITER trial to address the balance of vascular benefits and diabetes hazard of statin use.MethodsIn the randomised, double-blind JUPITER trial, 17,603 men and women without previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes were randomly assigned to rosuvastatin 20 mg or placebo and followed up for up to 5 years for the primary endpoint (myocardial infarction, stroke, admission to hospital for unstable angina, arterial revascularisation, or cardiovascular death) and the protocol-prespecified secondary endpoints of venous thromboembolism, all-cause mortality, and incident physician-reported diabetes. In this analysis, participants were stratified on the basis of having none or at least one of four major risk factors for developing diabetes: metabolic syndrome, impaired fasting glucose, body-mass index 30 kg/m(2) or higher, or glycated haemoglobin A(1c) greater than 6%. The trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00239681.FindingsTrial participants with one or more major diabetes risk factor (n=11,508) were at higher risk of developing diabetes than were those without a major risk factor (n=6095). In individuals with one or more risk factors, statin allocation was associated with a 39% reduction in the primary endpoint (hazard ratio [HR] 0·61, 95% CI 0·47-0·79, p=0·0001), a 36% reduction in venous thromboembolism (0·64, 0·39-1·06, p=0·08), a 17% reduction in total mortality (0·83, 0·64-1·07, p=0·15), and a 28% increase in diabetes (1·28, 1·07-1·54, p=0·01). Thus, for those with diabetes risk factors, a total of 134 vascular events or deaths were avoided for every 54 new cases of diabetes diagnosed. For trial participants with no major diabetes risk factors, statin allocation was associated with a 52% reduction in the primary endpoint (HR 0·48, 95% CI 0·33-0·68, p=0·0001), a 53% reduction in venous thromboembolism (0·47, 0·21-1·03, p=0·05), a 22% reduction in total mortality (0·78, 0·59-1·03, p=0·08), and no increase in diabetes (0·99, 0·45-2·21, p=0·99). For such individuals, a total of 86 vascular events or deaths were avoided with no new cases of diabetes diagnosed. In analysis limited to the 486 participants who developed diabetes during follow-up (270 on rosuvastatin vs 216 on placebo; HR 1·25, 95% CI 1·05-1·49, p=0·01), the point estimate of cardiovascular risk reduction associated with statin therapy (HR 0·63, 95% CI 0·25-1·60) was consistent with that for the trial as a whole (0·56, 0·46-0·69). By comparison with placebo, statins accelerated the average time to diagnosis of diabetes by 5·4 weeks (84·3 [SD 47·8] weeks on rosuvastatin vs 89·7 [50·4] weeks on placebo).InterpretationIn the JUPITER primary prevention trial, the cardiovascular and mortality benefits of statin therapy exceed the diabetes hazard, including in participants at high risk of developing diabetes.FundingAstraZeneca.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Randomized-trial data on the risks and benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) as compared with zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine to prevent transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in HIV-infected pregnant women with high CD4 counts are lacking. METHODS:We randomly assigned HIV-infected women at 14 or more weeks of gestation with CD4 counts of at least 350 cells per cubic millimeter to zidovudine and single-dose nevirapine plus a 1-to-2-week postpartum "tail" of tenofovir and emtricitabine (zidovudine alone); zidovudine, lamivudine, and lopinavir-ritonavir (zidovudine-based ART); or tenofovir, emtricitabine, and lopinavir-ritonavir (tenofovir-based ART). The primary outcomes were HIV transmission at 1 week of age in the infant and maternal and infant safety. RESULTS:The median CD4 count was 530 cells per cubic millimeter among 3490 primarily black African HIV-infected women enrolled at a median of 26 weeks of gestation (interquartile range, 21 to 30). The rate of transmission was significantly lower with ART than with zidovudine alone (0.5% in the combined ART groups vs. 1.8%; difference, -1.3 percentage points; repeated confidence interval, -2.1 to -0.4). However, the rate of maternal grade 2 to 4 adverse events was significantly higher with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (21.1% vs. 17.3%, P=0.008), and the rate of grade 2 to 4 abnormal blood chemical values was higher with tenofovir-based ART than with zidovudine alone (2.9% vs. 0.8%, P=0.03). Adverse events did not differ significantly between the ART groups (P>0.99). A birth weight of less than 2500 g was more frequent with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (23.0% vs. 12.0%, P<0.001) and was more frequent with tenofovir-based ART than with zidovudine alone (16.9% vs. 8.9%, P=0.004); preterm delivery before 37 weeks was more frequent with zidovudine-based ART than with zidovudine alone (20.5% vs. 13.1%, P<0.001). Tenofovir-based ART was associated with higher rates than zidovudine-based ART of very preterm delivery before 34 weeks (6.0% vs. 2.6%, P=0.04) and early infant death (4.4% vs. 0.6%, P=0.001), but there were no significant differences between tenofovir-based ART and zidovudine alone (P=0.10 and P=0.43). The rate of HIV-free survival was highest among infants whose mothers received zidovudine-based ART. CONCLUSIONS:Antenatal ART resulted in significantly lower rates of early HIV transmission than zidovudine alone but a higher risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health; PROMISE ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01061151 and NCT01253538 .).

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Evaluating associations between the benefits and risks of drug therapy in type 2 diabetes: a joint modeling approach.

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Evaluating associations between the benefits and risks of drug therapy in type 2 diabetes: a joint modeling approach.

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