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Youth lost to homicides: disparities in survival in Latin America and the Caribbean.

ABSTRACT: Introduction:The homicide rates among young men in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are the highest in the world. It is not clear how this has impacted the life expectancy in these countries. This research has two purposes: (1) to quantify the impact of homicides on the mortality gap between LAC and high-income countries over recent years and (2) to assess the changes in homicide impact in overall survival over time. Methods:Causes of death data were extracted for 23 countries in the LAC and 15 European countries (average European union-15 [EU-15]), using UN, UNODC, WHO, HMD and IHME databases for the period 2005-2014. The contribution by homicide deaths to the change in life expectancy, over time and as a difference between two populations, was quantified using decomposition methods. Results:The contribution by homicide mortality to changes in life expectancy levels differed widely across the examined LAC countries. In Honduras, homicide mortality accounted for 1.75 (95% CI 1.64 to 1.86) and 6.30 (95% CI 6.07 to 6.53) years lower life expectancy than in the EU-15 countries for women and men, respectively. Contrary to this, homicide was just accountable for less than a couple of months of life expectancy differences between Chile and EU-15. Jamaica had the largest reduction in homicides and its impact increased life expectancy over time by almost half a year for men. However, Mexican men and Honduran women have experienced increases in mortality by homicide, which decreased their life expectancy by more than a quarter of a year between 2005 and 2014. Conclusions:Excess mortality related to homicides in young people accounted for major changes in life expectancy in the LAC region. Furthermore, reducing excess mortality due to homicides is a crucial goal to further increase longevity towards levels of low-mortality countries. These reductions might prevent homicides spreading to other parts of Latin America. Decision and policy-makers in LAC need to address this immediately, and investing in the young population needs to be given a high priority.

SUBMITTER: Canudas-Romo V

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6509612 | biostudies-other | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Youth lost to homicides: disparities in survival in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Canudas-Romo Vladimir V Aburto José Manuel JM

BMJ global health 20190410 2

<h4>Introduction</h4>The homicide rates among young men in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are the highest in the world. It is not clear how this has impacted the life expectancy in these countries. This research has two purposes: (1) to quantify the impact of homicides on the mortality gap between LAC and high-income countries over recent years and (2) to assess the changes in homicide impact in overall survival over time.<h4>Methods</h4>Causes of death data were extracted for 23 countrie ...[more]

PMID: 31139444

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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has placed unprecedented stress on economies, food systems, and health care resources in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Existing surveillance provides a proxy of the COVID-19 caseload and mortalities; however, these measures make it difficult to identify the dynamics of the pandemic and places where outbreaks are likely to occur. Moreover, existing surveillance techniques have failed to measure the dynamics of the pandemic.ObjectiveThis study aimed to provide additional surveillance metrics for COVID-19 transmission to track changes in the speed, acceleration, jerk, and persistence in the transmission of the pandemic more accurately than existing metrics.MethodsThrough a longitudinal trend analysis, we extracted COVID-19 data over 45 days from public health registries. We used an empirical difference equation to monitor the daily number of cases in the LAC as a function of the prior number of cases, the level of testing, and weekly shift variables based on a dynamic panel model that was estimated using the generalized method of moments approach by implementing the Arellano-Bond estimator in R. COVID-19 transmission rates were tracked for the LAC between September 30 and October 6, 2020, and between October 7 and 13, 2020.ResultsThe LAC saw a reduction in the speed, acceleration, and jerk for the week of October 13, 2020, compared to the week of October 6, 2020, accompanied by reductions in new cases and the 7-day moving average. For the week of October 6, 2020, Belize reported the highest acceleration and jerk, at 1.7 and 1.8, respectively, which is particularly concerning, given its high mortality rate. The Bahamas also had a high acceleration at 1.5. In total, 11 countries had a positive acceleration during the week of October 6, 2020, whereas only 6 countries had a positive acceleration for the week of October 13, 2020. The TAC displayed an overall positive trend, with a speed of 10.40, acceleration of 0.27, and jerk of -0.31, all of which decreased in the subsequent week to 9.04, -0.81, and -0.03, respectively.ConclusionsMetrics such as new cases, cumulative cases, deaths, and 7-day moving averages provide a static view of the pandemic but fail to identify where and the speed at which SARS-CoV-2 infects new individuals, the rate of acceleration or deceleration of the pandemic, and weekly comparison of the rate of acceleration of the pandemic indicate impending explosive growth or control of the pandemic. Enhanced surveillance will inform policymakers and leaders in the LAC about COVID-19 outbreaks.

Project description:ObjectiveTo assess scientific publication and map research gaps on access to medicines (ATM) in Latin American and the Caribbean low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC).DesignScoping review. Two independent reviewers assessed studies for inclusion and extracted data from each study.Information sourcesSearch strategies were developed and the following databases were searched: MEDLINE, ISI, SCOPUS and Lilacs, from 2000 to 2010.Eligibility criteriaResearch articles and reviews published in English, Spanish and Portuguese were included. Studies including only high-income countries were excluded, as well as those carried out in very limited settings and discussion papers.ResultsThe 77 articles retained were categorised through consensus among the research team according to the level of the health system addressed, ATM domain and research issues covered. Publications on ATM have increased over time during the study period (r 0.93, p=0.00; R(2) 0.85). The top five countries covered were Brazil (68.8%), Mexico (15.6%), Colombia (11.7%), Argentina (10.4%) and Peru (10.4%). 'Health services delivery' and 'patients, household and communities' were the health system levels most frequently covered. The ATM domains 'leadership and governance', 'sustainable financing, affordability and price of medicines', 'medicines selection and use' and 'availability of medicines' were the top four explored. There are research gaps in important areas such as 'human resources for health', 'global policies and human rights', 'production of medicines' and 'traditional medicine'.ConclusionsThe upward trend on scientific publication reflects a growing research capacity in the region, which is concentrated on research teams in selected countries. The gaps on research capacity could be overcome through research collaboration among countries. It is important to strengthen these collaborations, assuring that interests and needs from the LMIC are addressed and local capacity building is promoted.

Project description:BackgroundCardiovascular prognostic models guide treatment allocation and support clinical decisions. Whether there are valid models for Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) populations is unknown.ObjectiveThis study sought to identify and critically appraise cardiovascular prognostic models developed, tested, or recalibrated in LAC populations.MethodsThe systematic review followed the CHARMS (CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies) framework (PROSPERO [International Prospective Register of Systemic Reviews]: CRD42018096553). Reports were included if they followed a prospective design and presented a multivariable prognostic model; reports were excluded if they studied symptomatic individuals or patients. The following search engines were used: EMBASE, MEDLINE, Scopus, SciELO, and LILACS. Risk of bias assessment was conducted with PROBAST (Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool). No quantitative summary was conducted due to large heterogeneity.ResultsFrom 2,506 search results, 8 studies (N = 130,482 participants) were included for qualitative synthesis. We could not identify any cardiovascular prognostic model developed for LAC populations; reviewed reports evaluated available models or conducted a recalibration analysis. Only 1 study included a Caribbean population (Puerto Rico); 3 studies were retrieved from Chile; 2 from Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Uruguay; and 1 from Mexico. Four studies included population-based samples, and the other 4 included people affiliated to a health facility (e.g., prevention clinics). Most studied participants were older than 50 years, and there were more women in 5 reports. The Framingham model was assessed 6 times, and the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled equation was assessed twice. Across the prognostic models assessed, calibration varied widely from one population to another, showing great overestimation particularly in some subgroups (e.g., highest risk). Discrimination (e.g., C-statistic) was acceptable for most models; for Framingham it ranged from 0.66 to 0.76. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association pooled equation showed the best discrimination (0.78). That there were few outcome events was the most important methodological limitation of the identified studies.ConclusionsNo cardiovascular prognostic models have been developed in LAC, hampering key evidence to inform public health and clinical practice. Validation studies need to improve methodological issues.

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Youth lost to homicides: disparities in survival in Latin America and the Caribbean.

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Youth lost to homicides: disparities in survival in Latin America and the Caribbean.

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