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Use of machine learning to analyse routinely collected intensive care unit data: a systematic review.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Intensive care units (ICUs) face financial, bed management, and staffing constraints. Detailed data covering all aspects of patients' journeys into and through intensive care are now collected and stored in electronic health records: machine learning has been used to analyse such data in order to provide decision support to clinicians. METHODS:Systematic review of the applications of machine learning to routinely collected ICU data. Web of Science and MEDLINE databases were searched to identify candidate articles: those on image processing were excluded. The study aim, the type of machine learning used, the size of dataset analysed, whether and how the model was validated, and measures of predictive accuracy were extracted. RESULTS:Of 2450 papers identified, 258 fulfilled eligibility criteria. The most common study aims were predicting complications (77 papers [29.8% of studies]), predicting mortality (70 [27.1%]), improving prognostic models (43 [16.7%]), and classifying sub-populations (29 [11.2%]). Median sample size was 488 (IQR 108-4099): 41 studies analysed data on > 10,000 patients. Analyses focused on 169 (65.5%) papers that used machine learning to predict complications, mortality, length of stay, or improvement of health. Predictions were validated in 161 (95.2%) of these studies: the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was reported by 97 (60.2%) but only 10 (6.2%) validated predictions using independent data. The median AUC was 0.83 in studies of 1000-10,000 patients, rising to 0.94 in studies of > 100,000 patients. The most common machine learning methods were neural networks (72 studies [42.6%]), support vector machines (40 [23.7%]), and classification/decision trees (34 [20.1%]). Since 2015 (125 studies [48.4%]), the most common methods were support vector machines (37 studies [29.6%]) and random forests (29 [23.2%]). CONCLUSIONS:The rate of publication of studies using machine learning to analyse routinely collected ICU data is increasing rapidly. The sample sizes used in many published studies are too small to exploit the potential of these methods. Methodological and reporting guidelines are needed, particularly with regard to the choice of method and validation of predictions, to increase confidence in reported findings and aid in translating findings towards routine use in clinical practice.

SUBMITTER: Shillan D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6704673 | biostudies-other | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Use of machine learning to analyse routinely collected intensive care unit data: a systematic review.

Shillan Duncan D Sterne Jonathan A C JAC Champneys Alan A Gibbison Ben B

Critical care (London, England) 20190822 1

<h4>Background</h4>Intensive care units (ICUs) face financial, bed management, and staffing constraints. Detailed data covering all aspects of patients' journeys into and through intensive care are now collected and stored in electronic health records: machine learning has been used to analyse such data in order to provide decision support to clinicians.<h4>Methods</h4>Systematic review of the applications of machine learning to routinely collected ICU data. Web of Science and MEDLINE databases ...[more]

PMID: 31439010

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Project description:RationalePatients transferred from the intensive care unit to the wards who are later readmitted to the intensive care unit have increased length of stay, healthcare expenditure, and mortality compared with those who are never readmitted. Improving risk stratification for patients transferred to the wards could have important benefits for critically ill hospitalized patients.ObjectivesWe aimed to use a machine-learning technique to derive and validate an intensive care unit readmission prediction model with variables available in the electronic health record in real time and compare it to previously published algorithms.MethodsThis observational cohort study was conducted at an academic hospital in the United States with approximately 600 inpatient beds. A total of 24,885 intensive care unit transfers to the wards were included, with 14,962 transfers (60%) in the training cohort and 9,923 transfers (40%) in the internal validation cohort. Patient characteristics, nursing assessments, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes from prior admissions, medications, intensive care unit interventions, diagnostic tests, vital signs, and laboratory results were extracted from the electronic health record and used as predictor variables in a gradient-boosted machine model. Accuracy for predicting intensive care unit readmission was compared with the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and Modified Early Warning Score in the internal validation cohort and also externally using the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database (n = 42,303 intensive care unit transfers).ResultsEleven percent (2,834) of discharges to the wards were later readmitted to the intensive care unit. The machine-learning-derived model had significantly better performance (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.76) than either the Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.65), or Modified Early Warning Score (area under the receiver operating curve, 0.58; P value < 0.0001 for all comparisons). At a specificity of 95%, the derived model had a sensitivity of 28% compared with 15% for Stability and Workload Index for Transfer score and 7% for the Modified Early Warning Score. Accuracy improvements with the derived model over Modified Early Warning Score and Stability and Workload Index for Transfer were similar in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort.ConclusionsA machine learning approach to predicting intensive care unit readmission was significantly more accurate than previously published algorithms in both our internal validation and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III cohort. Implementation of this approach could target patients who may benefit from additional time in the intensive care unit or more frequent monitoring after transfer to the hospital ward.

Project description:BackgroundTimely recognition of hemodynamic instability in critically ill patients enables increased vigilance and early treatment opportunities. We develop the Hemodynamic Stability Index (HSI), which highlights situational awareness of possible hemodynamic instability occurring at the bedside and to prompt assessment for potential hemodynamic interventions.MethodsWe used an ensemble of decision trees to obtain a real-time risk score that predicts the initiation of hemodynamic interventions an hour into the future. We developed the model using the eICU Research Institute (eRI) database, based on adult ICU admissions from 2012 to 2016. A total of 208,375 ICU stays met the inclusion criteria, with 32,896 patients (prevalence = 18%) experiencing at least one instability event where they received one of the interventions during their stay. Predictors included vital signs, laboratory measurements, and ventilation settings.ResultsHSI showed significantly better performance compared to single parameters like systolic blood pressure and shock index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) and showed good generalization across patient subgroups. HSI AUC was 0.82 and predicted 52% of all hemodynamic interventions with a lead time of 1-h with a specificity of 92%. In addition to predicting future hemodynamic interventions, our model provides confidence intervals and a ranked list of clinical features that contribute to each prediction. Importantly, HSI can use a sparse set of physiologic variables and abstains from making a prediction when the confidence is below an acceptable threshold.ConclusionsThe HSI algorithm provides a single score that summarizes hemodynamic status in real time using multiple physiologic parameters in patient monitors and electronic medical records (EMR). Importantly, HSI is designed for real-world deployment, demonstrating generalizability, strong performance under different data availability conditions, and providing model explanation in the form of feature importance and prediction confidence.

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Use of machine learning to analyse routinely collected intensive care unit data: a systematic review.

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Use of machine learning to analyse routinely collected intensive care unit data: a systematic review.

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