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Longitudinal Blood Transcriptomic Changes Predict Lung Function Decline in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

ABSTRACT: The Rationale: Molecular markers of disease activity that are predictive of forced vital capacity (FVC) progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis are needed. Objectives: Develop a predictor using longitudinal within-patient gene expression differences (ΔGE) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) to predict of FVC progression. Methods: Patients in the training cohort (n=74) experiencing ≥10% relative reduction in FVC% of predicted over 12 months were categorized as progressors in contrast to the remaining stable patients. Baseline to 4-month within-patient ΔGE were correlated with FVC status. FVC-predictor genes were prioritized by two-group comparison with FDR<5%, logistic LASSO regression with p<0.05, and 10-Fold Cross-Validation with ≥50% support. Receiver operating characteristic with area under the curve (AUC) analyses were conducted in training subsets and independent validation cohorts from UChicago (n=27), UPMC (n=35), and Imperial (n=24) where different transcriptome assay platforms and varying transcriptome sampling times were used to derive ΔGE. Results: Intra-subject Compared to cross-sectional analysis of baseline GE, our longitudinal ΔGE variation approach demonstratedlargely reduced within-group sample variation and increased statistic power fin progressor and stable groups for prediction model development. A 25-gene FVC-predictor separated “progressors” from “stable” by Principal Component Analysis in the training and subsets of the training cohort. The resulting FVC-predictor consistently demonstrated high discriminatory performance independent of transcriptome assay platforms and varying sampling times in validation cohorts (AUC= 0.77-0.80). TGF beta was the highest-ranking canonical pathway by Gene Set Enrichment Analysis. Conclusions: Our novel short-term longitudinal within-patient ΔGE approach identified a FVC-predictor which may reflect disease activity and prove to be a reliable biomarker predictive of future FVC decline.

ORGANISM(S): Homo sapiens

PROVIDER: GSE132607 | GEO | 2019/09/30

REPOSITORIES: GEO

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Project description:Chronic injury in kidney transplants remains a major cause of graft loss. The aim of this study was to identify a predictive gene set capable of classifying renal grafts at risk for progressive injury due to fibrosis.The Genomics of Chronic Allograft Rejection (GoCAR) study is a prospective, multicenter study. Biopsies obtained prospectively 3 months after transplantation from renal allograft recipients (n=159) with stable renal function were analyzed for gene expression by microarray. Genes were sought which correlated with subsequent 12-month Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) but neither CADI in the 3 month biopsy nor other histological or clinical parameters. We identified a set of 13 genes that was independently predictive for the development of fi brosis at 1 year (ie, CADI-12 >=2). The gene set had high predictive capacity (area under the curve [AUC] 0·967), which was superior to that of baseline clinical variables (AUC 0·706) and clinical and pathological variables (AUC 0·806). Furthermore routine pathological variables were unable to identify which histologically normal allografts would progress to fi brosis (AUC 0·754), whereas the predictive gene set accurately discriminated between transplants at high and low risk of progression (AUC 0·916). The 13 genes also accurately predicted early allograft loss (AUC 0·842 at 2 years and 0·844 at 3 years). We validated the predictive value of this gene set in an independent cohort from the GoCAR study (n=45, AUC 0·866) and two independent, publically available expression datasets (n=282, AUC 0·831 and n=24, AUC 0·972). Biopsies obtained prospectively 3 months after transplantation from renal allograft recipients (n=159) with stable renal function were analyzed for gene expression by Affymetrix exon arrays. Genes that were specifically correlated with 12-month Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) but neither CADI in the 3 month biopsy nor other histological or clinical parameters were identified by correlation analysis. The minimal geneset was further identified to predict the progressors/non progressors and validated by qPCR in an independent cohort and two public datasets. This dataset is part of the TransQST collection.

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Longitudinal Blood Transcriptomic Changes Predict Lung Function Decline in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

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