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Malkov2020 - SEIRS model of COVID-19 transmission with reinfection


ABSTRACT: Epidemiological models of COVID-19 transmission assume that recovered individuals have a fully protected immunity. To date, there is no definite answer about whether people who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of a clear answer about the risk of reinfection, it is instructive to consider the possible scenarios. To study the epidemiological dynamics with the possibility of reinfection, I use a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Resistant-Susceptible model with the time-varying transmission rate. I consider three different ways of modeling reinfection. The crucial feature of this study is that I explore both the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios and how the mitigation measures affect this difference. The principal results are the following. First, the dynamics of the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios are indistinguishable before the infection peak. Second, the mitigation measures delay not only the infection peak, but also the moment when the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios becomes prominent. These results are robust to various modeling assumptions.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Kausthubh Ramachandran  

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000979 | BioModels | 2024-09-02

REPOSITORIES: BioModels

Dataset's files

Source:
Action DRS
BIOMD0000000979?filename=Malkov2020.cps Other
BIOMD0000000979?filename=Malkov2020.omex Other
BIOMD0000000979?filename=Malkov2020.sedml Other
BIOMD0000000979?filename=Malkov2020.xml Xml
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Publications

Simulation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) scenarios with possibility of reinfection.

Malkov Egor E  

Chaos, solitons, and fractals 20200918


Epidemiological models of COVID-19 transmission assume that recovered individuals have a fully protected immunity. To date, there is no definite answer about whether people who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of a clear answer about the risk of reinfection, it is instructive to consider the possible scenarios. To study the epidemiological dynamics with the possibility of reinfection, I use a Susceptible  ...[more]

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