Dataset Information

Malkov2020 - SEIRS model of COVID-19 transmission with time-varying R values and reinfection

ABSTRACT: Epidemiological models of COVID-19 transmission assume that recovered individuals have a fully pro- tected immunity. To date, there is no definite answer about whether people who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of a clear answer about the risk of reinfection, it is instructive to consider the possible scenarios. To study the epidemiological dynamics with the possibility of reinfection, I use a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious- Resistant-Susceptible model with the time-varying transmission rate. I consider three different ways of modeling reinfection. The crucial feature of this study is that I explore both the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios and how the mitigation measures affect this difference. The principal results are the following. First, the dynamics of the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios are in- distinguishable before the infection peak. Second, the mitigation measures delay not only the infection peak, but also the moment when the difference between the reinfection and no-reinfection scenarios becomes prominent. These results are robust to various modeling assumptions.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Kausthubh Ramachandran

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000980 | BioModels | 2024-09-02

REPOSITORIES: BioModels

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Dataset's files

Source:

			Action	DRS
	BIOMD0000000980?filename=Malkov2020-biopax2.owl	Owl
	BIOMD0000000980?filename=Malkov2020-biopax3.owl	Owl
	BIOMD0000000980?filename=Malkov2020-matlab.m	Other
	BIOMD0000000980?filename=Malkov2020.cps	Other
	BIOMD0000000980?filename=Malkov2020.ode	Other

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Publications

Simulation of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) scenarios with possibility of reinfection.

Malkov Egor E

Chaos, solitons, and fractals 20200918

Epidemiological models of COVID-19 transmission assume that recovered individuals have a fully protected immunity. To date, there is no definite answer about whether people who recover from COVID-19 can be reinfected with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In the absence of a clear answer about the risk of reinfection, it is instructive to consider the possible scenarios. To study the epidemiological dynamics with the possibility of reinfection, I use a Susceptible ...[more]

PMID: 32982082

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Project description:Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. Methods: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Results: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. Conclusions: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.