Dataset Information

Trends in Neisseria meningitidis serogroups amongst patients with suspected cerebrospinal meningitis in the meningitis belt of Ghana: a 5-year retrospective study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis was the major cause of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt before 2010 when the monovalent meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac) was introduced in the region. Therefore, this study aimed to establish the trends in N. meningitidis serogroups from 2016 to 2020 in Ghana's meningitis belt.

Methods

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed laboratory results of suspected cases of cerebrospinal meningitis from January, 2016 to March, 2020 were obtained from the Tamale Public Health Laboratory. The data were subjected to trend analysis using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 25. Differences between discrete variables were analyzed using the Cochran-Armitage trend test.

Results

Of the 2,426 suspected cases, 395 (16.3%) were confirmed positive for N. meningitidis using PCR. Serogroup X showed a significant upward trend (P < 0.01), and serogroup W showed a downward trend (P < 0.01). However, no significant trend was observed for any other serogroup.

Conclusion

This study showed the emergence of serogroup X, a non-vaccine type, as the predominant N. meningitidis serogroup in the wake of a declining serogroup W in Ghana's meningitis belt.

SUBMITTER: Azure S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10077696 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Trends in Neisseria meningitidis serogroups amongst patients with suspected cerebrospinal meningitis in the meningitis belt of Ghana: a 5-year retrospective study.

Azure Stebleson S Abdul-Karim Abass A Abubakari Braimah Baba BB Eleeza John B JB Agboyie Daron Davies A DDA Weyori Enoch Weikem EW Choi Jun Yong JY

BMC infectious diseases 20230406 1

<h4>Background</h4>Serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis was the major cause of meningococcal meningitis epidemics in the African meningitis belt before 2010 when the monovalent meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MenAfriVac) was introduced in the region. Therefore, this study aimed to establish the trends in N. meningitidis serogroups from 2016 to 2020 in Ghana's meningitis belt.<h4>Methods</h4>Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) confirmed laboratory results of suspected cases of cerebrospinal meningit ...[more]

PMID: 37024833

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Project description:ObjectiveThe optimal long-term vaccination strategies to provide population-level protection against serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (MenA) are unknown. We developed an age-structured mathematical model of MenA transmission, colonization, and disease in the African meningitis belt, and used this model to explore the impact of various vaccination strategies.MethodsThe model stratifies the simulated population into groups based on age, infection status, and MenA antibody levels. We defined the model parameters (such as birth and death rates, age-specific incidence rates, and age-specific duration of protection) using published data and maximum likelihood estimation. We assessed the validity of the model by comparing simulated incidence of invasive MenA and prevalence of MenA carriage to observed incidence and carriage data.ResultsThe model fit well to observed age- and season-specific prevalence of carriage (mean pseudo-R2 0.84) and incidence of invasive disease (mean R2 0.89). The model is able to reproduce the observed dynamics of MenA epidemics in the African meningitis belt, including seasonal increases in incidence, with large epidemics occurring every eight to twelve years. Following a mass vaccination campaign of all persons 1-29 years of age, the most effective modeled vaccination strategy is to conduct mass vaccination campaigns every 5 years for children 1-5 years of age. Less frequent campaigns covering broader age groups would also be effective, although somewhat less so. Introducing conjugate MenA vaccine into the EPI vaccination schedule at 9 months of age results in higher predicted incidence than periodic mass campaigns.DiscussionWe have developed the first mathematical model of MenA in Africa to incorporate age structures and progressively waning protection over time. Our model accurately reproduces key features of MenA epidemiology in the African meningitis belt. This model can help policy makers consider vaccine program effectiveness when determining the feasibility and benefits of MenA vaccination strategies.

Project description:BackgroundNeisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a pathogen of multiple serogroups that is highly prevalent in many populations. Serogroups associated with invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada, for example, include A, B, C, W-135, X and Y. IMD is a rare but serious outcome of Nm infection, and can be prevented with vaccines that target certain serogroups. This has stimulated the development of dynamic models to evaluate vaccine impact. However, these models typically aggregate the various Nm serogroups into a small number of combined groups, instead of modelling each serogroup individually. The impact of aggregation on dynamic Nm model predictions is poorly understood. Our objective was to explore the impact of aggregation on dynamic model predictions.MethodsWe developed two age-structured agent-based models--a 2-strain model and a 4-strain model--to simulate vaccination programs in the Canadian setting. The 2-strain model was used to explore two different groupings: C, versus all other serogroups combined; and B, versus all other serogroups combined. The 4-strain model used the four groupings: C, B, Neisseria lactamica, versus all other serogroups combined. We compared the predicted impact of monovalent C vaccine, quadrivalent ACWY vaccine (MCV-4), and monovalent B vaccine (4CMenB) on the prevalence of serogroup carriage under these different models.ResultsThe 2-strain and 4-strain models predicted similar overall impacts of vaccines on carriage prevalence, especially with respect to the vaccine-targeted serogroups. However, there were some significant quantitative and qualitative differences. Declines in vaccine-targeted serogroups were more rapid in the 2-strain model than the 4-strain model, for both the C and the 4CMenB vaccines. Sustained oscillations, and evidence for multiple attractors (i.e., different types of dynamics for the same model parameters but different initial conditions), occurred in the 4-strain model but not the 2-strain model. Strain replacement was also more pronounced in the 4-strain model, on account of the 4-strain model spreading prevalence more thinly across groups and thus enhancing competitive interactions.ConclusionsSimplifying assumptions like aggregation of serogroups can have significant impacts on dynamic model predictions. Modellers should carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of aggregation when formulating models for multi-strain pathogens.

Dataset Information

Trends in Neisseria meningitidis serogroups amongst patients with suspected cerebrospinal meningitis in the meningitis belt of Ghana: a 5-year retrospective study.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Trends in Neisseria meningitidis serogroups amongst patients with suspected cerebrospinal meningitis in the meningitis belt of Ghana: a 5-year retrospective study.

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