Dataset Information

Risk prediction of second hip fracture by bone and muscle density of the hip varies with time after first hip fracture: A prospective cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Predictors of 'imminent' risk of second hip fracture are unknown. The aims of the study were to explore strength of hip areal bone mineral density (aBMD), and muscle area and density for predicting second hip fracture at different time intervals.

Methods

Data of the Chinese Second Hip Fracture Evaluation were analyzed, a longitudinal study to evaluate the risk of second hip fracture (of the contralateral hip) by using CT images obtained immediately after first hip fracture. Muscle cross-sectional area and density were measured of the gluteus maximus (G.MaxM) and gluteus medius and minimus (G.Med/MinM) and aBMD of the proximal femur at the contralateral unfractured side. Patients were followed up for a median time of 4.5 years. Separate Cox models were used to predict second hip fracture risk at different time intervals after first event adjusted for age, sex, BMI and diabetes.

Results

The mean age of subjects with imminent (within 1st or 2nd year) second hip fracture was 79.80 ± 5.16 and 81.56 ± 3.64 years. In the 1st year after the first hip fracture, femoral neck (FN) aBMD predicted second hip fracture (HR 5.88; 95 % CI, 1.32-26.09). In the remaining years of follow-up after 2nd year, muscle density predicted second hip fracture (G.MaxM HR 2.13; 95 % CI, 1.25-3.65,G.Med/MinM HR 2.10; 95 % CI, 1.32-3.34).

Conclusions

Our results show that femoral neck aBMD is an important predictor for second hip fracture within the first year and therefore suggest supports the importance concept of early and rapid-acting bone-active drugs to increase hip BMD. In addition, the importance of muscle density predicting second hip fracture after the second year suggest post hip fracture rehabilitation and exercise programs could also be important to reduce muscle fatty infiltration.

SUBMITTER: Wang L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10788229 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Risk prediction of second hip fracture by bone and muscle density of the hip varies with time after first hip fracture: A prospective cohort study.

Wang Ling L Yang Minghui M Ge Yufeng Y Liu Yandong Y Wang Gang G Su Yongbin Y Guo Zhe Z Yin Lu L Huang Pengju P Geng Jian J Blake Glen M GM He Bo B Zhu Shiwen S Cheng Xiaoguang X Wu Xinbao X Aro Hannu T HT Vlug Annegreet A Engelke Klaus K

Bone reports 20231222

<h4>Purpose</h4>Predictors of 'imminent' risk of second hip fracture are unknown. The aims of the study were to explore strength of hip areal bone mineral density (aBMD), and muscle area and density for predicting second hip fracture at different time intervals.<h4>Methods</h4>Data of the Chinese Second Hip Fracture Evaluation were analyzed, a longitudinal study to evaluate the risk of second hip fracture (of the contralateral hip) by using CT images obtained immediately after first hip fracture ...[more]

PMID: 38226335

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Project description:BackgroundPatients with a first hip fracture are at high risk of fracturing their other hip. Despite this, preventive therapy is often not given. Because little is known about specific risk factors of a second hip fracture, we investigated the association with areal bone mineral density (aBMD), muscle size, and density. We also investigated whether muscle parameters predict the risk of a contralateral fracture independently of aBMD.MethodsThree groups were included, one without hip fracture (a subcohort of the China Action on Spine and Hip Status study), one with a first, and one with a second hip fracture. Subjects with fractures were recruited from the longitudinal Chinese Second Hip Fracture Evaluation (CSHFE). Computed tomography scans of CSHFE patients, which were obtained immediately following their first fracture, were used to measure cross-sectional area and density of the gluteus maximus (G.MaxM) and gluteus medius and minimus (G.Med/MinM) muscles. Computed tomography X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure aBMD of the contralateral femur. Median follow-up time to second fracture was 4.5 years. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HR) of second hip fracture risk in subjects with a first hip fracture. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to compare odds ratios (OR) for the risk of a first and second hip fracture.ResultsThree hundred and one participants (68.4 ± 6.1 years, 64% female) without and 302 participants (74.6 ± 9.9 years, 71% female) with a first hip fracture were included in the analysis. Among the latter, 45 (79.2 ± 7.1 years) sustained a second hip fracture. ORs for first hip fracture were significant for aBMD and muscle size and density. ORs for a second fracture were smaller by a factor of 3 to 4 and no longer significant for femoral neck (FN) aBMD. HRs for predicting second hip fracture confirmed the results. G.Med/MinM density (HR, 1.68; CI, 1.20-2.35) and intertrochanter aBMD (HR, 1.62; CI, 1.13-2.31) were the most significant. FN aBMD was not significant. G.Med/MinM density remained significant for predicting second hip fracture after adjustment for FN (HR, 1.66; Cl, 1.18-2.30) or total hip aBMD (HR, 1.50; 95% Cl, 1.04-2.15).ConclusionsDensity of the G.Med/MinM muscle is an aBMD independent predictor of the risk of second hip fracture. Intertrochanteric aBMD is a better predictor of second hip fracture than FN and total hip aBMD. These results may trigger a paradigm shift in the assessment of second hip fracture risk and prevention strategies.

Project description:BackgroundMuscle weakness is a key factor in the increase risk of falls and might also play a significant role in the increase of risk of hip fracture. Computed tomography-measured muscle size and muscle density are well-established imaging biomarkers used in studies of physical function, frailty or cancer, but limited to hip fracture. In particular, it is warranted to have a better understanding of the performance of muscle size and density in the discrimination of acute hip fractures. We also aim to determine age-related differences of muscle size and density in healthy controls and hip fracture patients.MethodsFour hundred thirty-eight low-energy acute hip fracture cases and 316 healthy controls from the China Action on Spine and Hip Status study were included in the study. Muscle cross-sectional area and density were measured for the gluteus maximus and gluteus medius and minimus. Areal bone mineral density (aBMD) of the femoral neck and total hip was measured. Using propensity score matching, we generated three samples with cases and controls matched for age, body mass index, and gender: femoral neck fracture (FNF), intertrochanteric fracture (ITF), and any hip fracture vs. controls, respectively.ResultsHandgrip strength, gluteus muscle area and density, and bone parameters of the matched hip fracture groups were lower than those of the correspondence control groups, respectively (P < 0.05). The univariate analysis showed that associations of aBMD with FNF and with ITF were significantly weaker than associations between fracture and muscle parameters. Gluteus medius and minimus muscle density showed the highest areas under the curve (AUC) with FNF (0.88, 95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.92) and trochanteric fracture (0.95, 95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.97). The model including all muscle and bone parameters provided the highest AUC (FNF: AUC 0.912; ITF: AUC 0.958), and AUC results of another selected model without muscle density showed that association with fracture significantly dropped (FNF: AUC 0.755; ITF: AUC 0.858). Separate results for the two age groups younger and older than 70 years showed no age-related significant differences in discriminate models.ConclusionsMuscle density performs better than aBMD from hip computed tomography X-ray absorptiometry and muscle size in discrimination of hip fracture. Combination of aBMD and muscle density provided the best discrimination. The integration of muscle assessments may trigger a paradigm shift in hip fracture prediction. Gluteus muscle density should also be evaluated as treatment outcome.

Project description:ImportanceScreening for osteoporosis with bone mineral density (BMD) is recommended for older adults. It is unclear whether repeating a BMD screening test improves fracture risk assessment.ObjectivesTo determine whether changes in BMD after 4 years provide additional information on fracture risk beyond baseline BMD and to quantify the change in fracture risk classification after a second BMD measure.Design, setting, and participantsPopulation-based cohort study involving 310 men and 492 women from the Framingham Osteoporosis Study with 2 measures of femoral neck BMD taken from 1987 through 1999.Main outcomes and measuresRisk of hip or major osteoporotic fracture through 2009 or 12 years following the second BMD measure.ResultsMean age was 74.8 years. The mean (SD) BMD change was -0.6% per year (1.8%). Throughout a median follow-up of 9.6 years, 76 participants experienced an incident hip fracture and 113 participants experienced a major osteoporotic fracture. Annual percent BMD change per SD decrease was associated with risk of hip fracture (hazard ratio [HR], 1.43 [95% CI, 1.16 to 1.78]) and major osteoporotic fracture (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.01 to 1.45]) after adjusting for baseline BMD. At 10 years' follow-up, 1 SD decrease in annual percent BMD change compared with the mean BMD change was associated with 3.9 excess hip fractures per 100 persons. In receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.78) for the baseline BMD model compared with 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62 to 0.75) for the BMD percent change model. Moreover, the addition of BMD change to a model with baseline BMD did not meaningfully improve performance (AUC, 0.72 [95% CI, 0.66 to 0.79]). Using the net reclassification index, a second BMD measure increased the proportion of participants reclassified as high risk of hip fracture by 3.9% (95% CI, -2.2% to 9.9%), whereas it decreased the proportion classified as low risk by -2.2% (95% CI, -4.5% to 0.1%).Conclusions and relevanceIn untreated men and women of mean age 75 years, a second BMD measure after 4 years did not meaningfully improve the prediction of hip or major osteoporotic fracture. Repeating a BMD measure within 4 years to improve fracture risk stratification may not be necessary in adults this age untreated for osteoporosis.

Project description:BackgroundMortality following hip fracture is high and incompletely understood. We hypothesize that hip musculature size and quality are related to mortality following hip fracture. This study aims to investigate the associations of hip muscle area and density from hip CT with death following hip fracture as well as assess the dependence of this association on time after hip fracture.MethodsIn this secondary analysis of the prospectively collected CT images and data from the Chinese Second Hip Fracture Evaluation, 459 patients were enrolled between May 2015 and June 2016 and followed up for a median of 4.5 years. Muscle cross-sectional area and density were measured of the gluteus maximus (G.MaxM) and gluteus medius and minimus (G.Med/MinM) and aBMD of the proximal femur. The Goutallier classification (GC) was used for qualitatively assessing muscle fat infiltration. Separate Cox models were used to predict mortality risk adjusted for covariates.ResultsAt the end of the follow-up, 85 patients were lost, 81 patients (64% women) had died, and 293 (71% women) survived. The mean age of non-surviving patients at death (82.0 ± 8.1 years) was higher than that of the surviving patients (74.4 ± 9.9 years). The Parker Mobility Score and the American Society of Anesthesiologists scores of the patients that died were respectively lower and higher compared to the surviving patients. Hip fracture patients received different surgical procedures, and no significant difference in the percentage of hip arthroplasty was observed between the dead and the surviving patients (P = 0.11). The cumulative survival was significantly lower for patients with low G.MaxM area and density and low G.Med/MinM density, independent of age and clinical risk scores. The GC grades were not associated with the mortality after hip fracture. Muscle density of both G.MaxM (adj. HR 1.83; 95% CI, 1.06-3.17) and G.Med/MinM (adj. HR 1.98; 95% CI, 1.14-3.46) was associated with mortality in the 1st year after hip fracture. G.MaxM area (adj. HR 2.11; 95% CI, 1.08-4.14) was associated with mortality in the 2nd and later years after hip fracture.ConclusionOur results for the first time show that hip muscle size and density are associated with mortality in older hip fracture patients, independent of age and clinical risk scores. This is an important finding to better understand the factors contributing to the high mortality in older hip fracture patients and to develop better future risk prediction scores that include muscle parameters.

Project description:Older women with a first hip fracture exhibit heightened susceptibility and incidence of second fracture and potentially severe consequences. This prospective study was to compare the predictive power of qualitative and quantitative muscle parameters for a second hip fracture in older women with a first hip fracture. A total of 206 subjects were recruited from the longitudinal Chinese Second Hip Fracture Evaluation study. Hip computed tomography (CT) scans were obtained immediately after the first fracture. Muscle fat infiltration was assessed according to the Goutallier classification qualitatively. Quantitative parameters included cross-sectional area and density of gluteus maximus (G.MaxM) and gluteus medius and minimus (G.Med/MinM) muscles. CT X-ray absorptiometry was used to measure the areal bone mineral density (aBMD) of the contralateral femur. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HR) of second hip fracture risk. The mean age of subjects was 74.9 (±9.5) years at baseline. After 4.5 years, 35 had a second hip fracture, 153 without a second hip fracture, and 18 died. Except for the combined G.MinM Goutallier grade 3 and 4 groups before adjustment for covariates (HR = 5.83; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-22.83), there were no significant HRs for qualitative classification to predict a second hip fracture. Among quantitative metrics, after adjustment for covariates, G.Med/MinM density was significant in the original (HR = 1.44; CI 1.02-2.04) and competing risk analyses (HR = 1.46; CI 1.02-2.07). After additional adjustment for femoral neck (FN) aBMD, G.Med/MinM density remained borderline significant for predicting a second hip fracture in competing risk analysis (HR = 1.43; CI 0.99-2.06; p = 0.057). Our study revealed that Goutallier classification was less effective than quantitative muscle metrics for predicting hip second fracture in this elderly female cohort. After adjustment for FN aBMD, G.Med/MinM density is a borderline independent predictor of second hip fracture risk. © 2023 The Authors. JBMR Plus published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Dataset Information

Risk prediction of second hip fracture by bone and muscle density of the hip varies with time after first hip fracture: A prospective cohort study.

Purpose

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Risk prediction of second hip fracture by bone and muscle density of the hip varies with time after first hip fracture: A prospective cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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