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Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

ABSTRACT: Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021-22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022-23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2^nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021-22 and the 5^th most accurate in the 2022-23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

SUBMITTER: Mathis SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11282251 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Mathis Sarabeth M SM Webber Alexander E AE León Tomás M TM Murray Erin L EL Sun Monica M White Lauren A LA Brooks Logan C LC Green Alden A Hu Addison J AJ Rosenfeld Roni R Shemetov Dmitry D Tibshirani Ryan J RJ McDonald Daniel J DJ Kandula Sasikiran S Pei Sen S Yaari Rami R Yamana Teresa K TK Shaman Jeffrey J Agarwal Pulak P Balusu Srikar S Gururajan Gautham G Kamarthi Harshavardhan H Prakash B Aditya BA Raman Rishi R Zhao Zhiyuan Z Rodríguez Alexander A Meiyappan Akilan A Omar Shalina S Baccam Prasith P Gurung Heidi L HL Suchoski Brad T BT Stage Steve A SA Ajelli Marco M Kummer Allisandra G AG Litvinova Maria M Ventura Paulo C PC Wadsworth Spencer S Niemi Jarad J Carcelen Erica E Hill Alison L AL Loo Sara L SL McKee Clifton D CD Sato Koji K Smith Claire C Truelove Shaun S Jung Sung-Mok SM Lemaitre Joseph C JC Lessler Justin J McAndrew Thomas T Ye Wenxuan W Bosse Nikos N Hlavacek William S WS Lin Yen Ting YT Mallela Abhishek A Gibson Graham C GC Chen Ye Y Lamm Shelby M SM Lee Jaechoul J Posner Richard G RG Perofsky Amanda C AC Viboud Cécile C Clemente Leonardo L Lu Fred F Meyer Austin G AG Santillana Mauricio M Chinazzi Matteo M Davis Jessica T JT Mu Kunpeng K Pastore Y Piontti Ana A Vespignani Alessandro A Xiong Xinyue X Ben-Nun Michal M Riley Pete P Turtle James J Hulme-Lowe Chis C Jessa Shakeel S Nagraj V P VP Turner Stephen D SD Williams Desiree D Basu Avranil A Drake John M JM Fox Spencer J SJ Suez Ehsan E Cojocaru Monica G MG Thommes Edward W EW Cramer Estee Y EY Gerding Aaron A Stark Ariane A Ray Evan L EL Reich Nicholas G NG Shandross Li L Wattanachit Nutcha N Wang Yijin Y Zorn Martha W MW Aawar Majd Al MA Srivastava Ajitesh A Meyers Lauren A LA Adiga Aniruddha A Hurt Benjamin B Kaur Gursharn G Lewis Bryan L BL Marathe Madhav M Venkatramanan Srinivasan S Butler Patrick P Farabow Andrew A Ramakrishnan Naren N Muralidhar Nikhil N Reed Carrie C Biggerstaff Matthew M Borchering Rebecca K RK

Nature communications 20240726 1

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021-22 and 2022-23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and loc ...[more]

PMID: 39060259

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Project description:BackgroundDespite widespread utilization of influenza vaccines, effectiveness (VE) has not been routinely measured in Latin America.MethodsWe used a case test-negative control design to estimate trivalent inactivated influenza VE against laboratory-confirmed influenza among hospitalized children aged 6months-5years and adults aged ≥60years which are age-groups targeted for vaccination. We sought persons with severe acute respiratory infections (SARI), hospitalized at 71 sentinel hospitals in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, Panama, and Paraguay during January-December 2013. Cases had an influenza virus infection confirmed by real-time reverse transcription PCR (rRT-PCR); controls had a negative rRT-PCR result for influenza viruses. We used a two-stage random effects model to estimate pooled VE per target age-group, adjusting for the month of illness onset, age and preexisting medical conditions.ResultsWe identified 2620 SARI patients across sites: 246 influenza cases and 720 influenza-negative controls aged ≤5years and 448 cases and 1206 controls aged ≥60years. The most commonly identified subtype among participants (48%) was the influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus followed by influenza A(H3N2) (34%) and influenza B (18%) viruses. Among children, the adjusted VE of full vaccination (one dose for previously vaccinated or two if vaccine naïve) against any influenza virus SARI was 47% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 14-71%); VE was 58% (95% CI: 16-79%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, and 65% (95% CI: -9; 89%) against influenza A(H3N2) viruses associated SARI. Crude VE of full vaccination against influenza B viruses associated SARI among children was 3% (95% CI: -150; 63). Among adults aged ≥60years, adjusted VE against any influenza SARI was 48% (95% CI: 34-60%); VE was 54% (95% CI: 37-69%) against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, 43% (95% CI: 18-61%) against influenza A(H3N2) and 34% (95% CI: -4; 58%) against B viruses associated SARI.ConclusionInfluenza vaccine provided moderate protection against severe influenza illness among fully vaccinated young children and older adults, supporting current vaccination strategies.

Dataset Information

Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

Publications

Title evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations.

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