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Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets.

ABSTRACT: Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, presenting with a wide range of histologic, clinical, and genetic features. Microarray technology has shown promise in predicting outcome in these patients.We profiled 162 breast tumors using expression microarrays to stratify tumors based on gene expression. A subset of 55 tumors with extensive follow-up was used to identify gene sets that predicted outcome. The predictive gene set was further tested in previously published data sets.We used different statistical methods to identify three gene sets associated with disease free survival. A fourth gene set, consisting of 21 genes in common to all three sets, also had the ability to predict patient outcome. To validate the predictive utility of this derived gene set, it was tested in two published data sets from other groups. This gene set resulted in significant separation of patients on the basis of survival in these data sets, correctly predicting outcome in 62-65% of patients. By comparing outcome prediction within subgroups based on ER status, grade, and nodal status, we found that our gene set was most effective in predicting outcome in ER positive and node negative tumors.This robust gene selection with extensive validation has identified a predictive gene set that may have clinical utility for outcome prediction in breast cancer patients.

SUBMITTER: Korkola JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1855059 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets.

Korkola James E JE Blaveri Ekaterina E DeVries Sandy S Moore Dan H DH Hwang E Shelley ES Chen Yunn-Yi YY Estep Anne L H AL Chew Karen L KL Jensen Ronald H RH Waldman Frederic M FM

BMC cancer 20070411

<h4>Background</h4>Breast cancer is a heterogeneous disease, presenting with a wide range of histologic, clinical, and genetic features. Microarray technology has shown promise in predicting outcome in these patients.<h4>Methods</h4>We profiled 162 breast tumors using expression microarrays to stratify tumors based on gene expression. A subset of 55 tumors with extensive follow-up was used to identify gene sets that predicted outcome. The predictive gene set was further tested in previously publ ...[more]

PMID: 17428335

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Project description:Background: Numerous studies have focused on the PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway in estrogen receptor positive (ER) breast cancer (BC), as a linear signal transduction pathway and reported its association with worse clinical outcomes. To gain better insight into the relative contribution of each of the signalling pathways which lie downstream to PI3K (namely AKT and mTOR) to BC outcomes, we have developed a novel in silico approach which assessed the activation of each of these signalling pathways separately. Methods: By analysing gene expression and matched proteomic data in ER-positive patients from the TCGA repository, we developed gene signatures that reflect the level of expression of phosphorylated-Serine473-AKT (pAKT) and phosphorylated-Serine2448-mTOR (p-mTOR) separately, capturing their corresponding level of pathway activation. Using pooled analysis of gene-expression data from over 7,000 patients with ER-positive early BC, we then investigated the association between pathway activation and outcomes. Results: Our analysis revealed that the pAKT pathway activation (as measured by the developed signature) was associated with luminal A BC while the p-mTOR pathway activation was more associated with luminal B BC (Kruskal-Wallis test p<10-10). pAKT pathway activation was significantly associated with better outcomes (multivariable HR, 0.79; 95% CI, 0.74 to 0.85; p=2.5x10-10) whereas p-mTOR pathway activation showed worse outcomes (multivariable HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.1 to 1.2; p=9.9x10-4). Similar associations between activation and outcomes were obtained when the analysis was performed in patients who were treated with hormonal therapy. Additionally, pAKT pathway activation predicted better outcomes irrespective of the BC molecular subtypes (luminal A multivariable HR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.75 to 0.96; p=0.01; luminal B HR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.99; p=0.033). pAKT pathway activation was associated with PIK3CA mutations (p=0.0001) while p-mTOR pathway activation was associated with p53 mutations (p=0.04). Finally, we show that pAKT pathway activation was associated with less response to Everolimus. Conclusions: Our data show that pAKT and p-mTOR pathway activation have differing impact on prognosis and suggest that they are not linearly connected in luminal breast cancers. These findings add to our understanding of signalling through the PI3K pathway and could have important implications for the treatment of luminal BC.

Project description:BackgroundOne of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively.Methods and findingsOur results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER- patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome.ConclusionsThe 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic value for both ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. The signature was selected using a novel biological approach and hence holds promise to represent the key biological processes of breast cancer.

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Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets.

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Identification of a robust gene signature that predicts breast cancer outcome in independent data sets.

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