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When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

ABSTRACT: HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%), whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe.

SUBMITTER: Lopman B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2248619 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

Lopman Ben B Gregson Simon S

PloS one 20080305 3

HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation tec ...[more]

PMID: 18320032

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Death of an infant in utero or at birth has always been a devastating experience for the mother and of concern in clinical practice. Infant mortality remains a challenge in the care of pregnant women worldwide, but particularly for developing countries and the need to understand contributory factors is crucial for addressing appropriate perinatal health. METHODS: Using information available in obstetric records for all deliveries (17,072 births) at Harare Maternity Hospital, Zimbabwe, we conducted a cross-sectional retrospective analysis of a one-year data, (1997-1998) to assess demographic and obstetric risk factors for stillbirth and early neonatal death. We estimated risk of stillbirth and early neonatal death for each potential risk factor. RESULTS: The annual frequency of stillbirth was 56 per 1,000 total births. Women delivering stillbirths and early neonatal deaths were less likely to receive prenatal care (adjusted relative risk [RR] = 2.54; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 2.19-2.94 and RR = 2.52; 95% CI 1.63-3.91), which for combined stillbirths and early neonatal deaths increased with increasing gestational age (Hazard Ratio [HR] = 3.98, HR = 7.49 at 28 and 40 weeks of gestation, respectively). Rural residence was associated with risk of infant dying in utero, (RR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.12-1.59), and the risk of death increased with increasing gestational age (HR = 1.04, HR = 1.69, at 28 and 40 weeks of gestation, respectively). Older maternal age was associated with risk of death (HR = 1.50; 95% CI 1.21-1.84). Stillbirths were less likely to be delivered by Cesarean section (RR = 0.64; 95% CI 0.51-0.79), but more likely to be delivered as breech (RR = 4.65; 95% CI 3.88-5.57, as were early neonatal deaths (RR = 3.38; 95% CI 1.64-6.96). CONCLUSION: The frequency of stillbirth, especially macerated, is high, 27 per 1000 total births. Early prenatal care could help reduce perinatal death linking the woman to the health care system, increasing the probability that she would seek timely emergency care that would reduce the likelihood of death of her infant in utero. Improved quality of obstetric care during labor and delivery may help reduce the number of fresh stillbirths and early neonatal deaths.

Project description:BackgroundData on the prevalence of renal and urine abnormalities among HIV-infected children in Sub-Saharan Africa are limited. We set out to determine the prevalence of proteinuria; low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), urinary tract infection and associated factors among HIV-infected antiretroviral therapy (ART) naive children, aged 2-12 years, attending the paediatric HIV clinic at a tertiary hospital in Harare.MethodsConsecutive ART naive children attending the clinic between June and October 2009 were recruited. Detailed medical history was obtained and a complete physical examination was performed. Children were screened for urinary tract infection and for significant persistent proteinuria. Serum creatinine was used to estimate GFR using the modified Counahan-Barratt formula. The Student's t-test was used to analyse continuous variables and the chi-square or Fisher's exact test was used to analyse categorical data. Logistic regression was performed to assess the relationship between study factors and urine abnormalities, persistent proteinuria and the eGFR.ResultsTwo hundred and twenty children were enrolled into the study. The median age was 90 months (Q1=65.5; Q3=116.5). The prevalence of urinary tract infection was 9.5%. Escherichia coli was the predominant organism. There was uniform resistance to cotrimoxazole. Persistent proteinuria (urine protein to creatinine ratio greater than 0.2, a week apart) was found in 5% of the children. Seventy-five children (34.6%) had mild to moderate renal impairment shown by a low eGFR (30 to <90 ml/min/1.73 m2). Persistent proteinuria was more likely to be found in children who were wasted, weight-for-height (WHZ) z-score <-2 (p=0.0005). Children with WHO clinical stage 4 were more likely to have a low eGFR than children with less advanced stages (OR 2.68; CI 1.24-5.80). Urine abnormalities were more likely to be observed in children with WHO clinical stages 3 and 4 (OR 2.20; CI 1.06-4.60).ConclusionThere is significant renal impairment among HIV-infected, ART naive children aged 2-12 years attending the outpatient paediatric HIV clinic at Harare Central Hospital. The abnormalities are more likely to occur in children with advanced HIV/AIDS. Screening for renal impairment and urinary tract infections in HIV-infected children before initiation of ART and regularly thereafter would be helpful in their management.KeywordsHIV, renal disease, persistent proteinuria, glomerular filtration rate, urinary tract infection.

Project description:There is a growing number of older people living with HIV (OPLHIV). While a significant proportion of this population are adults growing into old age with HIV, there are also new infections among OPLHIV. There is a lack of data describing the outcomes of OPLHIV who commenced antiretroviral therapy (ART) after the age of 50 years in sub-Saharan Africa. We conducted a cohort study of patients who enrolled in care at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, at ages ≥50 years between February 2004 and March 2020. We examined demographic characteristics, attrition, viral suppression, immunological and clinical outcomes. Specifically, we described prevalent and incident HIV-related communicable and non-communicable comorbidities. We calculated frequencies, medians, interquartile ranges (IQR), and proportions; and used Cox proportional hazards models to identify risk factors associated with death. We included 420 (57% female) who commenced ART and were followed up for a median of 5.6 years (IQR 2.4-9.9). Most of the men were married (n = 152/179, 85%) whereas women were mostly widowed (n = 125/241, 51.9%). Forty per cent (n = 167) had WHO stage 3 or 4 conditions at ART baseline. Hypertension prevalence was 15% (n = 61) at baseline, and a further 27% (n = 112) had incident hypertension during follow-up. During follow-up, 300 (71%) were retained in care, 88 (21%) died, 17 (4%) were lost to follow-up, and 15 (4%) were transferred out. Of those in care, 283 (94%) had viral loads <50 copies/ml, and 10 had viral loads >1000 copies/ml. Seven patients (1.7%) were switched to second line ART during follow-up and none were switched to third-line. Higher baseline CD4 T-cell counts were protective against mortality (p = 0.001) while male sex (aHR: 2.29, 95%CI: 1.21-4.33), being unmarried (aHR: 2.06, 95%CI: 1.13-3.78), and being unemployed (aHR: 2.01, 95%CI: 1.2-3.37) were independent independent risk factors of mortality. There was high retention in care and virologic suppression in this cohort of OPLHIV. Hypertension was a common comorbidity. Being unmarried or unemployed were significant predictors of mortality highlighting the importance of sociologic factors among OPLHIV, while better immune competence at ART commencement was protective against mortality.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:Key to pharmacovigilance is spontaneously reporting all Adverse Drug Reactions (ADR) during post-market surveillance. This facilitates the identification and evaluation of previously unreported ADR's, acknowledging the trade-off between benefits and potential harm of medications. Only 41% Antiretroviral (ARV) ADR's documented in Harare city clinical records for January to December 2016 were reported to Medicines Control Authority of Zimbabwe (MCAZ). We investigated reasons contributing to underreporting of ARV ADR's in Harare city. METHODS:A descriptive cross-sectional study and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) guided surveillance evaluation was conducted. Two hospitals were purposively included. Seventeen health facilities and 52 health workers were randomly selected. Interviewer-administered questionnaires, key informant interviews and WHO pharmacovigilance checklists were used to collect data. Likert scales were applied to draw inferences and Epi info 7 used to generate frequencies and proportions. RESULTS:Of the 52 participants, 32 (61.5%) distinguished the ARV ADR defining criteria. Twenty-nine (55.8%) knew system's purpose whilst 28 (53.8%) knew the reporting process. Knowledge scored average on the 5-point-Likert scale. Thirty-eight (73.1%) participants identified ARV ADR's following client complaints and nine (1.3%) enquired clients' medication response. Forty-six (88.5%) cited non-feedback from MCAZ for underreporting. Inadequate ARV ADR identification skills were cited by 21 (40.4%) participants. Reporting forms were available in five (26.3%) facilities and reports were generated from hospitals only. Forty-two (90.6%) clinicians made therapeutic decisions from ARV ADR's. Averaged usefulness score was 4, on the 5-point-Likert scale. All 642 generated signals were committed to Vigiflow by MCAZ, reflecting a case detection rate of 4/ 100 000. Data quality was 0.75-1.0 (WHO) and all reports were causally assessed. CONCLUSION:The pharmacovigilance system was useful, simple, and acceptable despite being unstable, not representative and not sensitive. It was threatened by suboptimal health worker knowledge, weak detection strategies and referral policy preventing ARV ADR identification by person place and time. Revisiting local policy, advocacy, communication and health worker orientation might improve pharmacovigilance performance in Harare city.

Dataset Information

When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

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When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

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