Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.

Methods

We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.

Results

If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified c

SUBMITTER: Hallett TB 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2684620 | biostudies-literature | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature