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Using regression models to analyze randomized trials: asymptotically valid hypothesis tests despite incorrectly specified models.

ABSTRACT: Regression models are often used to test for cause-effect relationships from data collected in randomized trials or experiments. This practice has deservedly come under heavy scrutiny, because commonly used models such as linear and logistic regression will often not capture the actual relationships between variables, and incorrectly specified models potentially lead to incorrect conclusions. In this article, we focus on hypothesis tests of whether the treatment given in a randomized trial has any effect on the mean of the primary outcome, within strata of baseline variables such as age, sex, and health status. Our primary concern is ensuring that such hypothesis tests have correct type I error for large samples. Our main result is that for a surprisingly large class of commonly used regression models, standard regression-based hypothesis tests (but using robust variance estimators) are guaranteed to have correct type I error for large samples, even when the models are incorrectly specified. To the best of our knowledge, this robustness of such model-based hypothesis tests to incorrectly specified models was previously unknown for Poisson regression models and for other commonly used models we consider. Our results have practical implications for understanding the reliability of commonly used, model-based tests for analyzing randomized trials.

SUBMITTER: Rosenblum M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2748134 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Using regression models to analyze randomized trials: asymptotically valid hypothesis tests despite incorrectly specified models.

Rosenblum Michael M van der Laan Mark J MJ

Biometrics 20090204 3

Regression models are often used to test for cause-effect relationships from data collected in randomized trials or experiments. This practice has deservedly come under heavy scrutiny, because commonly used models such as linear and logistic regression will often not capture the actual relationships between variables, and incorrectly specified models potentially lead to incorrect conclusions. In this article, we focus on hypothesis tests of whether the treatment given in a randomized trial has a ...[more]

PMID: 19210739

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Project description:BackgroundFor many practical hypothesis testing (H-T) applications, the data are correlated and/or with heterogeneous variance structure. The regression t-test for weighted linear mixed-effects regression (LMER) is a legitimate choice because it accounts for complex covariance structure; however, high computational costs and occasional convergence issues make it impractical for analyzing high-throughput data. In this paper, we propose computationally efficient parametric and semiparametric tests based on a set of specialized matrix techniques dubbed as the PB-transformation. The PB-transformation has two advantages: 1. The PB-transformed data will have a scalar variance-covariance matrix. 2. The original H-T problem will be reduced to an equivalent one-sample H-T problem. The transformed problem can then be approached by either the one-sample Student's t-test or Wilcoxon signed rank test.ResultsIn simulation studies, the proposed methods outperform commonly used alternative methods under both normal and double exponential distributions. In particular, the PB-transformed t-test produces notably better results than the weighted LMER test, especially in the high correlation case, using only a small fraction of computational cost (3 versus 933 s). We apply these two methods to a set of RNA-seq gene expression data collected in a breast cancer study. Pathway analyses show that the PB-transformed t-test reveals more biologically relevant findings in relation to breast cancer than the weighted LMER test.ConclusionsAs fast and numerically stable replacements for the weighted LMER test, the PB-transformed tests are especially suitable for "messy" high-throughput data that include both independent and matched/repeated samples. By using our method, the practitioners no longer have to choose between using partial data (applying paired tests to only the matched samples) or ignoring the correlation in the data (applying two sample tests to data with some correlated samples). Our method is implemented as an R package 'PBtest' and is available at https://github.com/yunzhang813/PBtest-R-Package .

Dataset Information

Using regression models to analyze randomized trials: asymptotically valid hypothesis tests despite incorrectly specified models.

Publications

Using regression models to analyze randomized trials: asymptotically valid hypothesis tests despite incorrectly specified models.

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