International epidemic intelligence at the Institut de Veille Sanitaire, France.
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SUBMITTER: Rotureau B
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2851537 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMore than half of the global population is under strict forms of social distancing. Estimating the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis.MethodsWe use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in Île-de-France to (i) assess the epidemic in the region, (ii) evaluate the impact of lockdown, and (iii) propose possible exit strategies and estimate their effectiveness. The model is calibrated to hospital admission data before lockdown. Interventions are modeled by reconstructing the associated changes in the contact matrices and informed by mobility reductions during lockdown evaluated from mobile phone data. Different types and durations of social distancing are simulated, including progressive and targeted strategies, with large-scale testing.ResultsWe estimate the reproductive number at 3.18 [3.09, 3.24] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and at 0.68 [0.66, 0.69] during lockdown, thanks to an 81% reduction of the average number of contacts. Model predictions capture the disease dynamics during lockdown, showing the epidemic curve reaching ICU system capacity, largely strengthened during the emergency, and slowly decreasing. Results suggest that physical contacts outside households were largely avoided during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave overwhelming the healthcare system, if conditions return to normal. Extensive case finding and isolation are required for social distancing strategies to gradually relax lockdown constraints.ConclusionsAs France experiences the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.
| S-EPMC7391016 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The aim of our retrospective study was to evaluate the earliest COVID19-related signal to anticipate requirements of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. Although the number of ICU beds is crucial during the COVID-19 epidemic, there is no recognized early indicator to anticipate it. In the Ile-de-France region, from February 20 to May 5, 2020, emergency medical service (EMS) calls and the response provided (ambulances) together the percentage of positive reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, general practitioner (GP) and emergency department (ED) visits, and hospital admissions of COVID-19 patients were recorded daily and compared to the number of ICU patients. Correlation curve analysis was performed to determine the best correlation coefficient, depending on the number of days the indicator has been shifted. Primary endpoint was the number of ICU patients. EMS calls, percentage of positive RT-PCR tests, ambulances used, ED and GP visits of COVID-19 patients were strongly associated (R2 ranging between 0.79 to 0.99, all P<0.001) with COVID-19 ICU patients with an anticipation delay of 23, 15, 14, 13, and 12 days respectively. Hospitalization did not anticipate ICU bed requirement. A qualitative analysis of the onset of the second wave period of the epidemic (August 1 to September 15, 2020) in the same region provided similar results. The daily number of COVID19-related telephone calls received by the EMS and corresponding dispatch ambulances, and the proportion of positive RT-PCR tests were the earliest indicators of the number of COVID19 patients requiring ICU care during the epidemic crisis, rapidly followed by ED and GP visits. This information may help health authorities to anticipate a future epidemic, including a second wave of COVID19, or decide additional social measures.
| S-EPMC7673527 | biostudies-literature
Project description:UNLABELLED: We present a novel public health database (GENI-DB) in which news events on the topic of over 176 infectious diseases and chemicals affecting human and animal health are compiled from surveillance of the global online news media in 10 languages. News event frequency data were gathered systematically through the BioCaster public health surveillance system from July 2009 to the present and is available to download by the research community for purposes of analyzing trends in the global burden of infectious diseases. Database search can be conducted by year, country, disease and language. AVAILABILITY: The GENI-DB is freely available via a web portal at http://born.nii.ac.jp/.
| S-EPMC3324518 | biostudies-other
Project description:Introduction La crise sanitaire COVID-19 a bouleversé l’organisation du système de santé français et international, par la soudaineté de cette épidémie et des mesures ayant été mises en place pour y faire face. L’objectif de cette étude est d’explorer l’influence de la crise sanitaire COVID-19 et particulièrement de la réorganisation médicale qui en a résulté durant le 1er confinement sur un éventuel retard au diagnostic dans le mélanome cutanéo-muqueux primitif, sur un bassin de population. Matériel et méthodes Étude rétrospective multicentrique, à partir des données de toutes les réunions de concertation pluridisciplinaire (RCP) d’oncodermatologie du département de Loire-Atlantique. Comparaison, dans un bassin de population, des mélanomes nouvellement diagnostiqués durant une période de 6 mois en 2020 (mars à août) correspondant au 1er confinement en 2020 et les mois qui ont suivi (P20), aux mélanomes diagnostiqués sur les mêmes mois de l’année précédente (mars à août 2019), avant la crise sanitaire COVID-19: P19. Les données recueillies pour chaque cas étaient les suivantes : – pour le patient: âge et sexe ; –pour le mélanome: sous-type histologique, indices de Breslow et de Clark, ulcération, stade AJCC, délai de prise en charge défini par le délai entre l’exérèse initiale du mélanome et le moment où le patient est reçu en RCP pour organisation d’une reprise chirurgicale ou prise en charge complémentaire. Résultats Le nombre de mélanomes nouvellement diagnostiqués était de 247 en P19 et 209 en P20. Le sex-ratio homme/femme était de 1,1 en P19 et 1,2 en P20. La figure 1 illustre le nombre de cas par mois pour chacun des 6 mois en 2019 et 2020. Pendant la période de confinement de 2020 (du 17 mars au 11 mai), 54 cas ont été diagnostiqués et 73 l’année précédente sur la même période. L’indice de Breslow moyen en P19 était de 1,83 mm et de 1,65 mm en P20 (p = 0,429). Le délai de prise en charge était statistiquement significativement plus important en 2020 qu’en 2019 (délais de 33,36 jours versus 28,90 jours, p = 0,023). Discussion Sur ce bassin de population étudié, le nombre de mélanomes diagnostiqués a été inférieur à celui observé l’année précédente sur la même période et ce en particulier en avril-mai. Par contre, il ne semble pas y avoir de retard au diagnostic, en se basant sur le critère principal à savoir l’épaisseur au diagnostic. Il a été montré de façon similaire dans une étude italienne une diminution franche du nombre de diagnostics de mélanome en per confinement italien, avec découverte d’un indice de Breslow moyen durant le confinement abaissé. Toutefois, une autre étude menée à Londres a montré des résultats différents avec notamment un taux de détection plus élevé durant le confinement. Il n’y a actuellement pas d’autre étude dans la littérature étudiant l’impact de la crise sanitaire COVID-19 sur le retard au diagnostic des mélanomes en France.
| S-EPMC8603676 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8175101 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough recent work has described the spatiotemporal diffusion of influenza viruses worldwide, comprehensive data on spatiotemporal patterns of influenza from the African continent and Madagascar are still lacking.MethodsNational Influenza Centers from 5 countries-Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Madagascar, Niger, and Senegal--collected specimens from patients presenting with influenza-like illness who visited sentinel surveillance clinics during a 2-year period (2008-2009). Isolates were genetically and antigenically characterized.ResultsOverall, 8312 specimens were tested. Seasonal influenza A virus subtypes H1N1 and H3N2 and influenza B viruses were detected in 329, 689, and 148 specimens, respectively. In 2009, pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 was detected in Madagascar most commonly (98.5% of cases). Influenza activity was either significant year-round or occurred during a specific period of the year in the African countries we evaluated.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate that, from Madagascar to Senegal, the epidemiologic and virologic characteristics of influenza viruses are diverse in terms of spatiotemporal circulation of the different virus types, subtypes, and strains. Our data highlight the importance of country-specific surveillance and of data and virus sharing, and they provide a rational basis to aid policy makers to develop strategies, such as vaccination at the right moment and with the right formulation, aimed at reducing the disease burden in Africa and Madagascar.
| S-EPMC8250070 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe specific context related to the COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the implementation of distance learning continuity for students. In France, teachers and radiography students in initial training, not specially prepared for this, had to adapt. An evaluation of the system was proposed to the students.Materials and methodsAn anonymous online questionnaire with 4 main sections (pedagogy, communication, learning and concerns) was sent to 91 students at the end of the semester.Results91 responses were received. The slideshows with sound or presented during a virtual class are appreciated by the students. Online quizzes are ideal for learning/reviewing. For assessments, individual assignments and online questionnaires are appreciated. Teacher/student interaction via e-mail or video conferencing was considered satisfactory by the large majority of students. Student-student interactions via social networks, for course explanations or document exchange, are very suitable. The majority of students felt they were working a lot and much more compared to face-to-face teaching. Less than half of the students worked more than 20 h per week. Their motivation varied widely. Organizational habits were disrupted, but the autonomy granted was appreciated. The students were mainly concerned about the health of their loved ones and not about their own health.DiscussionThe use of distance education tools requires teacher commitment and technical skills. The frequency of communication by e-mail and/or videoconference between members of the teaching team and students must be adapted to the situation. Exchanges by e-mail allow for traceability, while videoconferencing allows direct interaction and a way out of isolation. Autonomy, appreciated by the students, was nevertheless combined with a strong variation in motivation; the anxiety-provoking period in which pedagogical continuity was built up may explain this contradictory observation.ConclusionThe results obtained largely confirm the data in the literature. The experience gained through this survey should lead teachers to continue their reflection by test/integrating and evaluating distance education systems, while continuing face-to-face activities.
| S-EPMC7837311 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Data Access Committee EGAC00001000178
| EGAC00001000178 | EGA
Project description:SARS-Cov2 Haut-de-France sequenced positive samples
| PRJEB43269 | ENA
Project description:In France, an epidemic peak of acute diarrhea is observed each winter. Previous results suggested a viral etiology for these winter epidemics. We investigated the role of enteric viruses in acute diarrhea and their molecular diversity. One hundred sixty-one patients with acute diarrhea and 45 healthy patients (controls) from the general population were given a standardized questionnaire between December 1998 and May 1999. Stool specimens were screened for group A and C rotaviruses, human caliciviruses, astroviruses, and adenovirus types 40 and 41 by reverse transcription-PCR and/or enzyme immunoassay. Virologic analysis was positive for 63 cases (39%). Caliciviruses and group A rotaviruses were the most frequent (19 and 17% of cases, respectively). Two control stool specimens were found positive for group A rotavirus, and one was found positive for astrovirus. Molecular characterization of the strains disclosed a cocirculation of P[8],G1, P[8],G4, and P[4],G2 rotaviruses; type 1, 2, 3, 4, and 8 astroviruses; and Sapporo-like and Norwalk-like human caliciviruses. These four types of viruses accounted for an attributable risk of acute diarrhea of 34.7% for the general population, under the assumption of a causal role of these viruses.
| S-EPMC139722 | biostudies-literature