Dataset Information

Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A cross-sectional, age-stratified study was conducted to determine varicella-zoster seroprevalence and force of infection in Slovenia.

Methods

3689 serum samples were tested for VZV IgG antibodies with an enzyme immunoassay. Semiparametric and parametric modelling were used to estimate the force of infection.

Results

Overall, 85.6% of serum samples were seropositive. Age-specific prevalence rose rapidly in preschool children and over 90% of 8 years old tested positive for VZV. However, 2.8% of serum samples among women of childbearing age were seronegative. Semiparametric modelling yielded force of infection estimates of 0.182 (95% CI 0.158-0.206), 0.367 (95% CI 0.285-0.448) and 0.008 (95% CI 0.0-0.032) for age groups 0.5- < 6, 6-11 and >or=12 years, respectively, and 0.175 (95% CI 0.147-0.202), 0.391 (95% CI 0.303-0.480) and 0.025 (95% CI 0.003-0.046) for age groups 0.5- < 5, 5-9 and >or=10 years, respectively.

Conclusions

Regardless of the age grouping used, the highest transmission occurred in children in their first years of school.

SUBMITTER: Socan M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2901375 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia.

Socan Maja M Berginc Natasa N Lajovic Jaro J

BMC public health 20100623

<h4>Background</h4>A cross-sectional, age-stratified study was conducted to determine varicella-zoster seroprevalence and force of infection in Slovenia.<h4>Methods</h4>3689 serum samples were tested for VZV IgG antibodies with an enzyme immunoassay. Semiparametric and parametric modelling were used to estimate the force of infection.<h4>Results</h4>Overall, 85.6% of serum samples were seropositive. Age-specific prevalence rose rapidly in preschool children and over 90% of 8 years old tested pos ...[more]

PMID: 20573202

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Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, routine two-dose immunization against varicella has been conducted among children at ages of 12 and 36 months since 2014, and the vaccination coverage has reached around 90%. To understand the impact of routine varicella vaccination, we reconstructed the epidemiological dynamics of varicella in Japan.MethodsEpidemiological and demographic datasets over the past three decades were analyzed to reconstruct the number of susceptible individuals by age and year. To estimate the annual risk of varicella infection, we fitted a balance equation model to the annual number of cases from 1990 to 2019. Using parameter estimates, we reconstructed varicella dynamics starting from 1990 and modeled future dynamics until 2033.ResultsOverall varicella incidence declined over time and the annual risk of infection among children younger than 10 years old decreased monotonically starting in 2014. Conversely, varicella incidence among teenagers (age 10 to 14 years) has increased each year since 2014. A substantial number of unvaccinated individuals born before the routine immunization era remained susceptible and aged without contracting varicella, while the annual risk of infection among teenagers aged 10 to 14 years increased starting in 2011 despite gradual expansion of varicella vaccine coverage. The number of susceptible individuals decreased over time in all age groups. Modeling indicated that susceptibility rates among pre-school children aged 1 to 4 years will remain low.ConclusionRoutine varicella vaccination has successfully reduced infections in pre-school and early primary school age children, but has also resulted in increased infection rates among adolescents. This temporary increase was caused both by the increased age of susceptible individuals and increased transmission risk among adolescents resulting from the dynamic nature of varicella transmission. Monitoring susceptibility among adolescents will be important to prevent outbreaks over the next decade.

Dataset Information

Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Varicella susceptibility and transmission dynamics in Slovenia.

Similar Datasets

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