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Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader.

ABSTRACT: Because invasive species threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems, a major goal in ecology is to develop predictive models to determine which species may become widespread and where they may invade. Indeed, considerable progress has been made in understanding the factors that influence the local pattern of spread for specific invaders and the factors that are correlated with the number of introduced species that have become established in a given region. However, few studies have examined the relative importance of multiple drivers of invasion success for widespread species at global scales. Here, we use a dataset of >5,000 presence/absence records to examine the interplay between climatic suitability, biotic resistance by native taxa, human-aided dispersal, and human modification of habitats, in shaping the distribution of one of the world's most notorious invasive species, the Argentine ant (Linepithema humile). Climatic suitability and the extent of human modification of habitats are primarily responsible for the distribution of this global invader. However, we also found some evidence for biotic resistance by native communities. Somewhat surprisingly, and despite the often cited importance of propagule pressure as a crucial driver of invasions, metrics of the magnitude of international traded commodities among countries were not related to global distribution patterns. Together, our analyses on the global-scale distribution of this invasive species provide strong evidence for the interplay of biotic and abiotic determinants of spread and also highlight the challenges of limiting the spread and subsequent impact of highly invasive species.

SUBMITTER: Roura-Pascual N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3017164 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader.

Roura-Pascual Núria N Hui Cang C Ikeda Takayoshi T Leday Gwénaël G Richardson David M DM Carpintero Soledad S Espadaler Xavier X Gómez Crisanto C Guénard Benoit B Guénard Benoit B Hartley Stephen S Krushelnycky Paul P Lester Philip J PJ McGeoch Melodie A MA Menke Sean B SB Pedersen Jes S JS Pitt Joel P W JP Reyes Joaquin J Sanders Nathan J NJ Suarez Andrew V AV Touyama Yoshifumi Y Ward Darren D Ward Philip S PS Worner Sue P SP

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20101220 1

Because invasive species threaten the integrity of natural ecosystems, a major goal in ecology is to develop predictive models to determine which species may become widespread and where they may invade. Indeed, considerable progress has been made in understanding the factors that influence the local pattern of spread for specific invaders and the factors that are correlated with the number of introduced species that have become established in a given region. However, few studies have examined th ...[more]

PMID: 21173219

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Project description:IntroductionDecision support models that predict both when and where to expect emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), are needed for the development and implementation of effective management strategies against this major invasive pest of ash (Fraxinus species) in North America and other regions such as Europe. We present a spatialized model of phenology and climatic suitability for EAB for use in the Degree-Days, Risk, and Phenological event mapping (DDRP) platform, which is an open-source decision support tool to help detect, monitor, and manage invasive threats.MethodsWe evaluated the model using presence records from three geographic regions (China, North America, and Europe) and a phenological dataset consisting primarily of observations from the northeastern and midwestern United States. To demonstrate the model, we produced phenological event maps for a recent year and tested for trends in EAB's phenology and potential distribution over a recent 20-year period.ResultsOverall, the model exhibited strong performance. Presence was correctly estimated for over 99% of presence records and predicted dates of adult phenological events corresponded closely with observed dates, with a mean absolute error of ca. 7 days and low estimates of bias. Climate stresses were insufficient to exclude EAB from areas with native Fraxinus species in North America and Europe; however, extreme weather events, climate warming, and an inability for EAB to complete its life cycle may reduce suitability for some areas. Significant trends toward earlier adult emergence over 20 years occurred in only some areas.DiscussionNear real-time model forecasts for the conterminous United States are available at two websites to provide end-users with decision-support for surveillance and management of this invasive pest. Forecasts of adult emergence and egg hatch are particularly relevant for surveillance and for managing existing populations with pesticide treatments and parasitoid introductions.

Dataset Information

Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader.

Publications

Relative roles of climatic suitability and anthropogenic influence in determining the pattern of spread in a global invader.

Similar Datasets

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