Dataset Information

Independent external validation of nomograms for predicting risk of low-trauma fracture and hip fracture.

ABSTRACT:

Background

A set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.

Methods

We included participants aged 55-95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Among 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men.

Interpretation

The published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population.

SUBMITTER: Langsetmo L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3033952 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Prior high-trauma fractures identified through health services data are associated with low bone mineral density (BMD) and future fracture risk to the same extent as fractures without high-trauma.IntroductionSome have questioned the usefulness of distinguishing high-trauma fractures from low-trauma fractures. The aim of this study is to compare BMD measurements and risk of subsequent low-trauma fracture in patients with prior high- or low-trauma fractures.MethodsUsing a clinical BMD registry for the province of Manitoba, Canada, we identified women and men age 40 years or older with fracture records from linked population-based healthcare data. Age- and sex-adjusted BMD Z-scores and covariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for incident fracture were studied in relation to prior fracture status, categorized as high-trauma if associated with external injury codes and low-trauma otherwise.ResultsThe study population consisted of 64,428 women and men with no prior fracture (mean age 63.7 years), 858 with prior high-trauma fractures (mean age 65.1 years), and 14,758 with prior low-trauma fractures (mean age 67.2 years). Mean Z-scores for those with any prior high-trauma fracture were significantly lower than in those without prior fracture (P < 0.001) and similar to those with prior low-trauma fracture. Median observation time for incident fractures was 8.8 years (total 729,069 person-years). Any prior high-trauma fracture was significantly associated with increased risk for incident major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (adjusted HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.08-1.59) as was prior low-trauma fracture (adjusted HR 1.55, 95% CI 1.47-1.63), and there was no significant difference between the two groups (prior trauma versus low-trauma fracture P = 0.093). A similar pattern was seen when incident MOF was studied in relation to prior hip fracture or prior MOF, or when the outcome was incident hip fracture or any incident fracture.ConclusionsHigh-trauma and low-trauma fractures showed similar relationships with low BMD and future fracture risk. This supports the inclusion of high-trauma fractures in clinical assessment for underlying osteoporosis and in the evaluation for intervention to reduce future fracture risk.

Project description:BackgroundRenal trauma grading has a limited ability to distinguish patients who will need intervention after high-grade renal trauma (HGRT). A nomogram incorporating both clinical and radiologic factors has been previously developed to predict bleeding control interventions after HGRT. We aimed to externally validate this nomogram using multicenter data from level 1 trauma centers.MethodsWe gathered data from seven level 1 trauma centers. Patients with available initial computed tomography (CT) scans were included. Each CT scan was reviewed by two radiologists blinded to the intervention data. Nomogram variables included trauma mechanism, hypotension/shock, concomitant injuries, vascular contrast extravasation (VCE), pararenal hematoma extension, and hematoma rim distance (HRD). Mixed-effect logistic regression was used to assess the associations between the predictors and bleeding intervention. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and its 95% confidence interval (CI).ResultsOverall, 569 HGRT patients were included for external validation. Injury mechanism was blunt in 89%. Using initial CT scans, 14% had VCE and median HRD was 1.7 (0.9-2.6) cm. Overall, 12% underwent bleeding control interventions including 34 angioembolizations and 24 nephrectomies. In the multivariable analysis, presence of VCE was associated with a threefold increase in the odds of bleeding interventions (odds ratio, 3.06; 95% CI, 1.44-6.50). Every centimeter increase in HRD was associated with 66% increase in odds of bleeding interventions. External validation of the model provided excellent discrimination in predicting bleeding interventions with an area under the curve of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.84-0.92).ConclusionOur results reinforce the importance of radiologic findings such as VCE and hematoma characteristics in predicting bleeding control interventions after renal trauma. The prediction accuracy of the proposed nomogram remains high using external data. These variables can help to better risk stratify high-grade renal injuries.Level of evidencePrognostic and epidemiological study, level III.

Project description:ImportanceThe risk for low-trauma fracture is increased by more than 30% after ischemic stroke, but existing fracture risk scores do not account for history of stroke as a high-risk condition.ObjectiveTo derive a risk score to predict the probability of fracture within 1 year after ischemic stroke and validate it in a separate cohort.Design, setting, and participantsPrognostic study of a cohort from the Ontario Stroke Registry, a population-based sample of adults in Ontario, Canada, who were hospitalized with ischemic stroke from July 1, 2003, to March 31, 2012, with 1 year of follow-up. A population-based validation cohort consisted of a sample of 13 698 consecutive stroke admissions captured across 5 years: April 2002 to March 2003, April 2004 to March 2005, April 2008 to March 2009, April 2010 to March 2011, and April 2012 to March 2013.ExposuresPredictor variables were selected based on biological plausibility and association with fracture risk. Age, sex, and modified Rankin score were abstracted from the medical records part of the Ontario Stroke Audit, and other characteristics were abstracted from administrative health data.Main outcomes and measuresIncidence of low-trauma fracture within 1 year of discharge, based on administrative health data.ResultsThe Fracture Risk after Ischemic Stroke (FRAC-Stroke) Score was derived in 20 435 patients hospitalized for ischemic stroke (mean [SD] age, 71.6 [14.0] years; 9564 [46.8%] women) from the Ontario Stroke Registry discharged from July 1, 2003, to March 31, 2012, using Fine-Gray competing risk regression. Low-trauma fracture occurred within 1 year of discharge in 741 of the 20 435 patients (3.6%) in the derivation cohort. Age, discharge modified Rankin score (mRS), and history of rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis, falls, and previous fracture were associated with the cumulative incidence of low trauma fracture in the derivation cohort. Model discrimination in the validation cohort (n = 13 698) was good (C statistic, 0.70). Discharge mRS was an important discriminator of risk (relative integrated discrimination improvement, 8.7%), with highest risk in patients with mRS 3 and 4 but lowest in bedbound patients (mRS 5). From the lowest to the highest FRAC-Stroke quintile, the cumulative incidence of 1-year low-trauma fracture increased from 1.3% to 9.0% in the validation cohort. Predicted and observed rates of fracture were similar in the external validation cohort. Analysis was conducted from July 2016 to January 2019.Conclusions and relevanceThe FRAC-Stroke score allows the clinician to identify ischemic stroke survivors at higher risk of low-trauma fracture within 1 year of hospital discharge. This information might be used to select patients for interventions to prevent fractures.

Project description:BackgroundCardiac injuries following trauma are associated with a worse clinical outcome. So-called trauma-induced secondary cardiac injuries have been recently described after experimental long bone fracture even in absence of direct heart damage. With the progressive aging of our society, the number of elderly trauma victims rises and therefore the incidence of hip fractures increases. Hip fractures were previously shown to be associated with adverse cardiac events in elderly individuals, which have mainly been attributed to pre-conditioned cardiac diseases. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of hip fractures on the heart in healthy young and middle-aged mice.Materials and methodsYoung (12-week-old) and middle-aged (52-week-old) female C57BL/6 mice either received an intramedullary stabilized proximal femur fracture or sham treatment. The observation time points included 6 and 24 h. Systemic levels of pro-inflammatory mediators as well as local inflammation and alterations in myocardial structure, metabolism and calcium homeostasis in left ventricular tissue was analyzed following hip fracture by multiplex analysis, RT-qPCR and immunohistochemistry.ResultsAfter hip fracture young and middle-aged mice showed increased systemic IL-6 and KC levels, which were significantly elevated in the middle-aged animals. Furthermore, the middle-aged mice showed enhanced myocardial expression of HMGB1, TLR2/4, TNF, IL1β and NLRP3 as well as considerable alterations in the myocardial expression of glucose- and fatty acid transporters (HFABP, GLUT4), calcium homeostasis proteins (SERCA) and cardiac structure proteins (desmin, troponin I) compared to the young animals following hip fracture.ConclusionYoung and middle-aged mice showed local myocardial alterations, which might predispose for the development of secondary cardiac injury following hip fracture. Age and the age-associated phenomenon of 'inflammaging' seemed to be an independent risk factor aggravating and accelerating cardiac alterations following hip fracture.

Project description:INTRODUCTION:The purpose of this study was to perform a direct comparison of several existing risk-stratification tools for localized prostate cancer in terms of their ability to predict for biochemical failure-free survival (BFFS). Two large databases were used and an external validation of two recently developed nomograms on an independent cohort was also performed in this analysis. METHODS:Patients who were treated with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) and/or brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer were selected from the multi-institutional Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) Prostate Cancer Risk Stratification (ProCaRS) database (n=7974) and the Centre Hospitalier de l'Université de Montréal (CHUM) validation database (n=2266). The primary outcome was BFFS using the Phoenix definition. Concordance index (C-index) reported from Cox proportional hazards regression using 10-fold cross validation and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to predict BFFS. RESULTS:C-index identified Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment (CAPRA) score and ProCaRS as superior to the historical GUROC and National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk-stratification systems. CAPRA modeled as five and three categories were superior to GUROC and NCCN only for the CHUM database. C-indices for CAPRA score, ProCaRS, GUROC, and NCCN were 0.72, 0.72, 0.71, and 0.72, respectively, for the ProCaRS database, and 0.66, 0.63, 0.57, and 0.60, respectively, for the CHUM database. However, many of these comparisons did not demonstrate a clinically meaningful difference. DCA identified minimal differences across the different risk-stratification systems, with no system emerging with optimal net benefit. External validation of the ProCaRS nomograms yielded favourable calibrations of R2=0.778 (low-dose rate [LDR]-brachytherapy) and R2=0.868 (EBRT). CONCLUSIONS:This study externally validated two ProCaRS nomograms for BFFS that may help clinicians in treatment selection and outcome prediction. A direct comparison between existing risk-stratification tools demonstrated minimal clinically significant differences in discriminative ability between the systems, favouring the CAPRA and ProCaRS systems. The incorporation of novel prognostic variables, such as genomic markers, is needed.