E-PASS for predicting postoperative risk with hip fracture: a multicenter study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Hirose J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2565032 | biostudies-other | 2008 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other
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Project description:IntroductionHip fracture is a common clinical problem in geriatric patients often associated with poor postoperative outcomes. Postoperative delirium (POD) and postoperative neurocognitive disorders (NCDs) are particularly frequent. The consequences of these disorders on postoperative recovery and autonomy are not fully described. The aim of this study was to determine the role of POD and NCDs on the need for institutionalization at 3 months after hip fracture surgery.MethodA population-based prospective cohort study was conducted on hip fracture patients between March 2016 and March 2018. The baseline interview, which included a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), was conducted in the hospital after admission for hip fracture. NCDs were appreciated by MMSE scoring evolution (difference between preoperative MMSE and MMSE at day 5 >2 points). POD was evaluated using the Confusion Assessment Method. The primary endpoint was the rate of new institutionalization at 3 months. We used a multivariate analysis to assess the risk of new institutionalization.ResultsA total of 63 patients were included. Thirteen patients (20.6%) were newly institutionalized at 3 months. Two factors were significantly associated with the risk of postoperative institutionalization at 3 months: POD (OR = 5.23; 95% CI 1.1-27.04; p = 0.04) and IADL evolution (OR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.23-2.74; p = 0.003).ConclusionOnly POD but not NCDs was associated with the risk of dependency and institutionalization after hip fracture surgery. The prevention of POD appears to be essential for improving patient outcomes and optimizing the potential for returning home.
| S-EPMC10464946 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAcute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) remains a serious postoperative complication. Although ARDS prevention is a priority, the inability to identify patients at risk for ARDS remains a barrier to progress. The authors tested and refined the previously reported surgical lung injury prediction (SLIP) model in a multicenter cohort of at-risk surgical patients.MethodsThis is a secondary analysis of a multicenter, prospective cohort investigation evaluating high-risk patients undergoing surgery. Preoperative ARDS risk factors and risk modifiers were evaluated for inclusion in a parsimonious risk-prediction model. Multiple imputation and domain analysis were used to facilitate development of a refined model, designated SLIP-2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model performance.ResultsAmong 1,562 at-risk patients, ARDS developed in 117 (7.5%). Nine independent predictors of ARDS were identified: sepsis, high-risk aortic vascular surgery, high-risk cardiac surgery, emergency surgery, cirrhosis, admission location other than home, increased respiratory rate (20 to 29 and ≥30 breaths/min), FIO2 greater than 35%, and SpO2 less than 95%. The original SLIP score performed poorly in this heterogeneous cohort with baseline risk factors for ARDS (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% CI], 0.56 [0.50 to 0.62]). In contrast, SLIP-2 score performed well (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [95% CI], 0.84 [0.81 to 0.88]). Internal validation indicated similar discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.84.ConclusionsIn this multicenter cohort of patients at risk for ARDS, the SLIP-2 score outperformed the original SLIP score. If validated in an independent sample, this tool may help identify surgical patients at high risk for ARDS.
| S-EPMC3999474 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA set of nomograms based on the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study predicts the five- and ten-year absolute risk of fracture using age, bone mineral density and history of falls and low-trauma fracture. We assessed the discrimination and calibration of these nomograms among participants in the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study.MethodsWe included participants aged 55-95 years for whom bone mineral density measurement data and at least one year of follow-up data were available. Self-reported incident fractures were identified by yearly postal questionnaire or interview (years 3, 5 and 10). We included low-trauma fractures before year 10, except those of the skull, face, hands, ankles and feet. We used a Cox proportional hazards model.ResultsAmong 4152 women, there were 583 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.6 years. Among 1606 men, there were 116 fractures, with a mean follow-up time of 8.3 years. Increasing age, lower bone mineral density, prior fracture and prior falls were associated with increased risk of fracture. For low-trauma fractures, the concordance between predicted risk and fracture events (Harrell C) was 0.69 among women and 0.70 among men. For hip fractures, the concordance was 0.80 among women and 0.85 among men. The observed fracture risk was similar to the predicted risk in all quintiles of risk except the highest quintile of women, where it was lower. The net reclassification index (19.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.3% to 32.2%), favours the Dubbo nomogram over the current Canadian guidelines for men.InterpretationThe published nomograms provide good fracture-risk discrimination in a representative sample of the Canadian population.
| S-EPMC3033952 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose:Pneumonia is one of the common complications of hip fracture. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors and apply a nomogram to predict postoperative pneumonia in elderly hip fracture patients. Materials and Methods:From August 2014 to October 2019, 1113 hip fracture patients who were older than 65 years and underwent surgical treatment in our hospital were subjects of this study. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent risk factors. A predictive nomogram model was built, and the discrimination and calibration were determined by receiver operating characteristic and calibration plot. Results:A total of 166 patients developed pneumonia after operation (14.91%, pneumonia group) while the remaining 947 patients did not (85.09%, non-pneumonia group). According to the results, body mass index (OR, 0.76, 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.84, P<0.001), serum albumin (OR, 0.86, 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.93, P<0.001), c-reactive protein (OR, 1.01, 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.92, P=0.011), functional status (OR, 2.94, 95% CI, 1.69 to 5.10, P<0.001) and time to surgery (OR, 4.56, 95% CI, 2.64 to 7.88, P<0.001) were identified as independent risk factors of pneumonia. The area under the curve value for postoperative pneumonia risk was 0.905, and the P-value of the Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test was 0.529. Conclusion:Our nomogram model can be used to predict the risk of pneumonia in elderly hip fractures after surgery and provide clinicians with guidance for better perioperative intervention to improve prognosis and reduce mortality.
| S-EPMC7502327 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimThis study aims to investigate the clinical value of the Duke Anesthesia Resistance Scale (DARS) in predicting postoperative delirium (POD) after hip fracture surgery.MethodsA retrospective study was conducted. Clinical data were collected from the patients who had hip fracture and underwent elective total hip arthroplasty in Shaanxi Provincial People's Hospital, Third Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University between January 2022 and June 2023. The Consciousness Fuzzy Assessment Scale was used to evaluate the occurrence of POD on postoperative day 3 (POD 3). The enrolled patients were divided into the POD group (n = 26) and the non-POD group (n = 125). Baseline characteristics, surgical data, postoperative information, and laboratory test results were collected. DARS scores were calculated using the minimum alveolar concentration, end-tidal concentration average (ETAC), and bispectral index (BIS). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to recognize the independent risk factors for POD after hip fracture surgery. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the value of DARS in POD prediction.ResultsThe average age of POD group was significantly higher, comparing to non-POD group (P < 0.05). DARS scores were statistically lower in the POD group compared to non-POD group (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis found that age and DARS scores were factors impacting post-operative delirium occurrence after hip fracture surgery (P < 0.05). ROC showed that the area under the curve for DARS in predicting POD after hip fracture surgery was 0.929 (95% CI [0.861-0.997]). The optimal cutoff value was 30. The sensitivity was 95.45%, while the specificity was 84.09%.ConclusionDARS score demonstrates good predictive value in hip fracture patients and is feasible in clinical practice, making it suitable for clinical application and promotion.
| S-EPMC10704981 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundStrategies to protect the brain from postoperative delirium (POD) after hip fracture are urgently needed. The development of delirium often is associated with the loss of independence, poor functional recovery, and increased morbidity, as well as increases in length of hospital stay, discharges to nursing facilities, and healthcare costs. We hypothesize that xenon may reduce the burden of POD, (i) by avoiding the need to provide anesthesia with a drug that targets the γ-amino-butyric acid (GABA)A receptor and (ii) through beneficial anesthetic and organ-protective effects.Methods and designAn international, multicenter, phase 2, prospective, randomized, blinded, parallel group and controlled trial to evaluate the incidence of POD, diagnosed with the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), in older patients undergoing hip fracture surgery under general anesthesia with xenon or sevoflurane, for a period of 4 days post surgery (primary outcome) is planned. Secondary objectives are to compare the incidence of POD between xenon and sevoflurane, to evaluate the incidence of POD from day 5 post surgery until discharge from hospital, to determine the time to first POD diagnosis, to evaluate the duration of POD, to evaluate the evolution of the physiological status of the patients in the postoperative period, to evaluate the recovery parameters, to collect preliminary data to evaluate the economical impact of POD in the postoperative period and to collect safety data. Patients are eligible if they are older aged (≥ 75 years) and assigned to a planned hip fracture surgery within 48 h after the hip fracture. Furthermore, patients need to be willing and able to complete the requirements of this study including the signature of the written informed consent. A total of 256 randomized patients in the 10 participating centers will be recruited, that is, 128 randomized patients in each of the 2 study groups (receiving either xenon or sevoflurane).Trial registrationEudraCT Identifier: 2009-017153-35; ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01199276.
| S-EPMC3488510 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHip fracture (HF) is one of the most common fractures in the elderly and is significantly associated with high mortality and unfavorable prognosis. Postoperative pneumonia (POP), the most common postoperative complication of HF, can seriously affect patient prognosis and increase the burden on the healthcare system. The aim of this study was to develop machine learning models for identifying elderly patients at high risk of pneumonia after hip fracture surgery.MethodsFrom May 2016 to November 2022, patients admitted to a single central hospital for HF served as the study population. We extracted data that could be collected within 24 h of patient admission. The dataset was divided into training and validation sets according to 70:30. Based on the screened risk factors, prediction models were developed using seven machine learning algorithms, namely CART, GBM, KNN, LR, NNet, RF, and XGBoost, and their performance was evaluated.ResultsEight hundred five patients were finally included in the analysis and 75 (9.3%) patients suffered from POP. Age, CI, COPD, WBC, HB, GLU, STB, GLOB, Ka+ which are used as features to build machine learning models. By evaluating the model's AUC value, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, Kappa value, MCC value, Brier score value, calibration curve, and DCA curve, the model constructed by XGBoost algorithm has the best and near-perfect performance.ConclusionThe machine learning model we created is ideal for detecting elderly patients at high risk of POP after HF at an early stage.
| S-EPMC10403839 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPost-hip fracture surgery delirium (PHFD) is a significant clinical problem in older patients, but an adequate, simple risk prediction model for use in the preoperative period has not been developed.MethodsThe 2016 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Hip Fracture Procedure Targeted Participant Use Data File was used to obtain a cohort of patients ≥60 years of age who underwent hip fracture surgery (n = 8871; randomly assigned to derivation [70%] or validation [30%] cohorts). A parsimonious prediction model for PHFD was developed in the derivation cohort using stepwise multivariable logistic regression with further removal of variables by evaluating changes in the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). A risk score was developed from the final multivariable model.ResultsOf 6210 patients in the derivation cohort, PHFD occurred in 1816 (29.2%). Of 32 candidate variables, 9 were included in the final model: (1) preoperative delirium (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 8.32 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 6.78-10.21], 8 risk score points); (2) preoperative dementia (aOR, 2.38 [95% CI, 2.05-2.76], 3 points); (3) age (reference, 60-69 years of age) (age 70-79: aOR, 1.60 [95% CI, 1.20-2.12], 2 points; age 80-89: aOR, 2.09 [95% CI, 1.59-2.74], 2 points; and age ≥90: aOR, 2.43 [95% CI, 1.82-3.23], 3 points); (4) medical comanagement (aOR, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.13-1.81], 1 point); (5) American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) physical status III-V (aOR, 1.40 [95% CI, 1.14-1.73], 1 point); (6) functional dependence (aOR, 1.37 [95% CI, 1.17-1.61], 1 point); (7) smoking (aOR, 1.36 [95% CI, 1.07-1.72], 1 point); (8) systemic inflammatory response syndrome/sepsis/septic shock (aOR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.09-1.65], 1 point); and (9) preoperative use of mobility aid (aOR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.14-1.52], 1 point), resulting in a risk score ranging from 0 to 20 points. The AUCs of the logistic regression and risk score models were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.76-0.78) and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.76-0.78), respectively, with similar results in the validation cohort.ConclusionsA risk score based on 9 preoperative risk factors can predict PHFD in older adult patients with fairly good accuracy.
| S-EPMC6917900 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo evaluate the effect of warfarin on blood transfusion and postoperative complications in a low-energy hip fracture population compared with a non-anticoagulated comparison group.DesignMulticenter Retrospective Cohort.SettingThree Urban Level I Academic Trauma Centers.PatientsAcute, low-energy, native hip fractures in patients 55 years of age or older on chronic warfarin anticoagulation, propensity score matched 1:2 to non-anticoagulated hip fracture patients meeting all other inclusion criteria.Main outcome measurementsTransfusion and postoperative complication rates.ResultsTwo hundred ten anticoagulated hip fracture patients were matched to 420 nonanticoagulated patients. A higher proportion of patients required blood transfusion in the warfarin cohort (52.4% vs. 43.3%, P < 0.001), attributable mostly to the subgroup of patients undergoing arthroplasty. Warfarin patients had higher incidence of overall 90-day complications (47% vs. 38%, P = 0.039) and readmissions (31.4% vs. 8.9%, P < 0.001). Day of surgery international normalized ratio (INR) did not influence transfusions or complications among warfarin patients. Warfarin patients undergoing surgery within 24 hours had no difference in transfusions and had fewer complications compared with those undergoing surgery after 24 hours. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, warfarin use and day of surgery INR were not predictors of transfusion or complications.ConclusionsPatients on warfarin experienced longer time to surgery and higher incidence of overall transfusion and postoperative complications within 90 days of surgery. However, warfarin use and day of surgery INR was not independently associated with transfusions or complications. The reason for poorer outcomes in warfarin patients remains a topic of further investigation.Level of evidenceTherapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.
| S-EPMC9868061 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe purpose of this study was to compare the cumulative incidence of postoperative periprosthetic fracture (PPF) in a cohort of femoral neck fracture (FNF) patients treated with two commonly used cemented stems: either a collarless, polished, tapered Exeter stem or the anatomic Lubinus SP2 stem.MethodsIn this retrospective multicenter cohort study of a consecutive series of patients, we included 2528 patients of age 60 years and above with an FNF who were treated with either hemiarthroplasty or total hip arthroplasty using either a polished tapered Exeter stem or an anatomic Lubinus SP2 stem. The incidence of PPF was assessed at a minimum of 2 years postoperatively.ResultsThe incidence of PPF was assessed at a median follow-up of 47 months postoperatively. Thirty nine patients (1.5%) sustained a PPF at a median of 27 months (range 0-96 months) postoperatively. Two of the operatively treated fractures were Vancouver A (5%), 7 were Vancouver B1 (18%), 10 were Vancouver B2 (26%), 7 were Vancouver B3 (18%), and 13 were Vancouver C (32%). The cumulative incidence of PPF was 2.3% in the Exeter group compared with 0.7% in the SP2 group (p < 0.001). The HR was 5.4 (95% CI 2.4-12.5, p < 0.001), using the SP2 group as the denominator.ConclusionsThe Exeter stem was associated with a higher risk for PPF than the Lubinus SP2 stem. We suggest that the tapered Exeter stem should be used with caution in the treatment of FNF.Trial registrationThe study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (identifier: NCT03326271).
| S-EPMC8187181 | biostudies-literature