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Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

ABSTRACT: Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an open research question. We propose to characterize a marker or risk model's principal surrogate value based on the distribution of risk difference between interventions. In addition, we propose a novel summary measure (the standardized total gain) that can be used to compare markers and to assess the incremental value of a new marker. We develop a semiparametric estimated-likelihood method to estimate the joint surrogate value of multiple biomarkers. This method accommodates two-phase sampling of biomarkers and is more widely applicable than existing nonparametric methods by incorporating continuous baseline covariates to predict the biomarker(s), and is more robust than existing parametric methods by leaving the error distribution of markers unspecified. The methodology is illustrated using a simulated example set and a real data set in the context of HIV vaccine trials.

SUBMITTER: Huang Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3163011 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

Huang Ying Y Gilbert Peter B PB

Biometrics 20110422 4

Recently a new definition of surrogate endpoint, the "principal surrogate," was proposed based on causal associations between treatment effects on the biomarker and on the clinical endpoint. Despite its appealing interpretation, limited research has been conducted to evaluate principal surrogates, and existing methods focus on risk models that consider a single biomarker. How to compare principal surrogate value of biomarkers or general risk models that consider multiple biomarkers remains an op ...[more]

PMID: 21517791

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Project description:BackgroundClinical trials in severe falciparum malaria require a large sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in mortality. This means few interventions can be evaluated at any time. Using a validated surrogate endpoint for mortality would provide a useful alternative allowing a smaller sample size. Here we evaluate changes in coma score and plasma lactate as surrogate endpoints for mortality in severe falciparum malaria.MethodsThree datasets of clinical studies in severe malaria were re-evaluated: studies from Chittagong, Bangladesh (adults), the African 'AQUAMAT' trial comparing artesunate and quinine (children), and the Vietnamese 'AQ' study (adults) comparing artemether with quinine. The absolute change, relative change, slope of the normalization over time, and time to normalization were derived from sequential measurements of plasma lactate and coma score, and validated for their use as surrogate endpoint, including the proportion of treatment effect on mortality explained (PTE) by these surrogate measures.ResultsImprovements in lactate concentration or coma scores over the first 24 hours of admission, were strongly prognostic for survival in all datasets. In hyperlactataemic patients in the AQ study (n = 173), lower mortality with artemether compared to quinine closely correlated with faster reduction in plasma lactate concentration, with a high PTE of the relative change in plasma lactate at 8 and 12 hours of 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. In paediatric patients enrolled in the 'AQUAMAT' study with cerebral malaria (n = 785), mortality was lower with artesunate compared to quinine, but this was not associated with faster coma recovery.ConclusionsThe relative changes in plasma lactate concentration assessed at 8 or 12 hours after admission are valid surrogate endpoints for severe malaria studies on antimalarial drugs or adjuvant treatments aiming at improving the microcirculation. Measures of coma recovery are not valid surrogate endpoints for mortality.

Dataset Information

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

Publications

Comparing biomarkers as principal surrogate endpoints.

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